The foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia rose USD $2.4 billion to USD $104.5 billion in February 2016 according to a statement of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia). The lender of last resort attributed this forex growth to foreign exchange receipts from the oil & gas sector, foreign debt withdrawals, and the sale of foreign-denominated bonds (SBBI). These receipts were more than enough to cover for the use of foreign exchange for public foreign debt payments.

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The Indonesian rupiah is appreciating markedly on Wednesday (10/02). By 12:30 pm local Jakarta time, Indonesia's currency had appreciated 1.62 percent to IDR 13,391 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a three-month high. Today, most emerging currencies in Asia are appreciating against the US dollar ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony in US Congress this week. Other factors that support strong rupiah appreciation are speculation that Indonesia will attract investors due to accelerating domestic economic growth and the move of Japan's central bank to introduce negative interest rates.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (05/02) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves declined USD $3.8 billion to USD $102.1 billion at the end of January 2016. This fall was caused by government (foreign) debt settlements as well as interest payments over global bonds. The central bank emphasized that the country's foreign exchange reserves are still at a safe level as they can adequately cover 7.5 months of imports or 7.2 months of imports and servicing of government external debt repayment, well above the global reserve standard at three months of imports.

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The Indonesian rupiah has been under pressure so far today (03/02) on concern that falling oil prices drag down other commodity prices, hence negatively affecting Indonesia's export performance. Yesterday, a global selloff in stocks occurred as oil prices were again touching the USD $30 per barrel mark. Emerging market currencies too are under pressure. The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.79 percent to IDR 13,799 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 12:55 pm local Jakarta time.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) mengumumkan bahwa cadangan devisa negara ini telah meningkat tajam pada bulan Desember 2015. Pada akhir bulan terakhir tahun 2015 aset devisa tercatat sebesar 105,9 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), naik dari 100,2 miliar dollar AS di bulan sebelumnya. Ini adalah hasil yang luar biasa karena ekonomi global dan domestik masih terganggu oleh ketidakpastian dan arus modal yang volatil (pada bulan Desember Federal Reserve akhirnya menaikkan Fed Fund Rate utamanya sebesar 25 poin basis).

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Rupiah Indonesia menguat secara signifikan terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (21/12) kendati ada prediksi bahwa rupiah akan menjadi mata uang dengan performa terburuk di Asia pada tahun 2016 akibat capital outflows (karena suku bunga AS direncanakan akan semakin dinaikkan pada tahun 2016), cadangan devisa Indonesia yang menurun, dan harga-harga komoditi yang terus-menerus rendah. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah menguat 1,13% menjadi Rp 13.760 per dollar AS pada pukul 14:20 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB) pada hari Senin (21/12).

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Meskipun musim dingin telah tiba, harga minyak dunia masih menurun. Hari ini (21/12), harga minyak mentah Brent jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2004 karena kekuatiran yang berkelanjutan tentang berlimpahnya suplai global karena Energy Information Administration melaporkan bahwa suplai minyak mentah AS naik 4,8 juta barel menjadi 490,7 juta pada minggu kedua bulan Desember, sementara tingkat produksi OPEC mencapai 31,7 juta barel per hari (bph) pada bulan November 2015. Sementara itu, permintaan minyak diperkirakan akan turun di tahun 2016. Sebagai contoh, konsumsi minyak di AS diperkirakan akan turun menjadi 1,2 juta bph tahun depan, dari 1,8 bph pada tahun 2015.

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Indeks-indeks saham di Asia Tenggara jatuh pada hari Jumat (18/12), dipimpin oleh indeks-indeks acuan di Thailand dan Indonesia. Pasar-pasar Asia ini mengikuti koreksi global yang terjadi setelah investor mempertimbangkan dampak yang mungkin terjadi dari kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve. Saham-saham di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Eropa turun pada hari Kamis dan hari Jumat, sementara harga minyak dan komoditi-komoditi lainnya terus menurun. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia turun 1,92 persen menjadi 4,468.65 poin.

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The coal price will have serious difficulty to rise as long as crude oil prices remain low and China's economy remains in slowdown-mode. Weak global oil prices (expected to remain below USD $40 per barrel this month) - and the strong US dollar amid looming US monetary tightening - give a bad signal to other commodities, including coal, while the world's largest energy consumer China is struggling to combat its economic slowdown implying limited global coal demand.

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The Indonesian government will engage in front loading, issuing 61 percent of next year's total planned state bonds - worth IDR 532.4 trillion (approx. USD $38.6 billion) - in the first half of 2016. Proceeds are used to finance the 2016 State Budget. Earlier, on 2 December 2015, the government had already sold USD $3.5 billion worth of bonds to cover a shortfall in the 2016 State Budget, deliberately ahead of the possible US interest rate hike in mid-December (as this move is expected to reduce investor appetite for emerging market assets).

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The release of Indonesia's April deflation figure (0.10%) and orderly May Day demonstrations provided a good environment for investors to continue purchasing Indonesian stocks (despite uncertainty about Indonesia's subsidized fuel policy. Moreover, positive Asian stock indices - in combination with positive European openings on Wednesday - made the Indonesia Stock Index (IHSG) rise to a new record level of 5,060.92 points on Wednesday (01/05/13), a 0.53 percent gain.

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Rising American stock indices on Wednesday provided solid support for stock indices around Asia the following day, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Amid this global positivity, market players were eager to add stocks to their portfolios. News from Japan, China and the Indonesian central bank's announcement to maintain its low benchmark interest rate were well-received, particularly by domestic market players. It made the IHSG rise to 4,924.26, a 0.96 percent gain.

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On Monday, the Dow Jones Index gained as corporate results of Q1-2013 are estimated to be good. This subsequently had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Tuesday, including Indonesia's main index (IHSG). Moreover, positive news from both Australia and China were well-received as well as the higher metal price (reflected by Hong Kong's rising Hang Seng Index). Amid this positivity, investors took the opportunity to enlarge their stock portfolios.

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On Thursday 4 April 2013, market players were hoping that the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) would climb beyond the psychological level of 5,000. However, the presence of negative market sentiments - and the overbought condition of the IHSG - were used as reasons to engage in profit taking. It consequently pushed down Indonesia's main financial market indicator to the level of 4,922.61, an 1.18 percent fall compared to Wednesday's trading day.

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Usually, news about inflation is not well-received by market participants. Particularly when inflation turns out to be higher than expected. This time, however, something interesting happened in Indonesia. Although the country's March inflation rate was high (5.90 percent year-on-year), it was not followed up by a negative response of market players. In fact, the inflation rate seems to have strengthened the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG), which gained 0.40 percent on Tuesday.

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Although the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) was moving in the red zone for a while during today's trading day, in the end it recorded a small gain. Most other Asian stock indices, except for Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai, went up as well. High expectations about continued IHSG-growth, strong corporate results of companies, and continued robust foreign demand for Indonesian stocks pushed the index up.

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Recent concerns about a global currency war, which is considered to threaten worldwide economic and financial stability, has prompted Indonesia's Economic minister Hatta Rajasa to ensure that Indonesia will not participate in such a tactic. The Central Bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has in fact been selling US dollars to support the IDR rupiah, which has been under growing pressure lately due to Indonesia's current account deficit and the risk of capital outflows.

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Rising Asian stock markets, particularly a strong Hang Seng (Hong Kong) that opened today after the Chinese new year celebrations, had a positive impact on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). As had happened in previous years, the IHSG has the tendency to gain ahead of Valentine's day. Today, market participants received their special Valentine's gift: a new record-high IHSG level of 4601.95, although in the end it had to close a bit lower.

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After rallying for three days to try to end on a new resistance level, the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG) finally had to retreat. As we suspected, the index weakened after its record high. Moreover, American and European indices were weak on Thursday, thus influencing the performance of the IHSG on Friday. Lastly, a number of Asian companies reported weak corporate reports that subsequently impacted on Asian stock indices, including the IHSG.

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