Indonesia's cocoa bean production is expected to rebound to 375,000 metric tons in 2017 provided weather conditions are conducive. In 2016 cocoa bean output is estimated to fall 7 percent due to weather conditions that harmed the cocoa trees. Zulhefi Sikumbang, Chairman of the Indonesian Cocoa Association (Askindo), said the El Nino (which brought droughts to Southeast Asia) and the subsequent La Nina (which brings wetter-than-usual weather conditions) are reason why Indonesia will only produce around 350,000 tons of cocoa in 2016.

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Asosiasi Kakao Indonesia (Askindo) memperkirakan ekspor kakao Indonesia akan menurun 37% menjadi 25.000 ton pada tahun 2016 dari estimasi 40.000 ton pada tahun ini. Dengan demikian, ekspor kakao Indonesia tetap akan menurun. Pada tahun 2014 Indonesia masih mengekspor senilai total 63.334 ton kakao. Ekspor kakao negara ini telah jatuh karena pemerintah menetapkan rezim pajak yang lebih ketat sejak pertengahan 2014. Pajak ekspor kakao sebesar 10%, Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) sebesar 10% dan pajak penghasilan sebesar 0,5%. Sementara itu, produksi kakao dalam negeri yang rendah juga ikut menyebabkan kinerja ekspor yang lebih rendah.

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Major chocolate producers recently warned that worldwide economic growth in combination with global population growth will result in a cocoa deficit in a few years hence prices of chocolate are estimated to rise. Especially chocolate consumption in China has risen robustly in recent years. In 2010, the population of China consumed 40,000 tons of chocolate. However, this has now risen by 75 percent to 70,000 tons. Moreover, consumption of dark chocolate, which contains a higher degree of cocoa, has grown in the USA.

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Indonesia’s cocoa bean production is expected to range between 500,000 and 700,000 tons in 2015 according to the Indonesian Cocoa Industry Association (AIKI), up from an estimated 485,000 tons in 2014. Earlier, the Indonesian government pledged to launch a USD $95 million cocoa revitalization program in the second quarter of 2015 in an ambitious attempt to double the nation’s cocoa output within a two year period. Indonesia’s Agriculture Ministry targets domestic cocoa bean output of at least one million tons per year.

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