Stakeholders in Indonesia’s cigarette manufacturing industry were not amused when the Indonesian government announced its plans to raise minimum prices of cigarettes and to increase the excise tax on tobacco products per 1 January 2020. Reportedly, the central government plans to raise the excise tax on tobacco products by an average of 23 percent, which will then raise the minimum price of cigarettes across categories by an average of 35 percent.

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Growth of advertising spending in Indonesia's printed and electronic media grew 14 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 134.8 trillion (approx. USD $10.1 billion) in 2016 from IDR 118 trillion in the preceding year. This growth pace is nearly double the annual growth pace that was recorded in 2014 and 2015 at 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively. These data come from a new report released by Nielsen’s Advertising Information Service earlier this week.

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Production of hand-rolled clove cigarettes (kretek) fell 30 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2016 due to stricter smoking regulations in Indonesia. Kretek is a clove cigarette that consists of tobacco (70 percent), and ground cloves, clove oil as well as other additives (30 percent). These clove cigarettes are the clear favorite of Indonesia's smoker community. It is estimated that 85 percent of all smokers in Indonesia prefer kretek cigarettes over white cigarettes. In total, around 55 million Indonesians consume tobacco-related products.

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Dalam rangka mematuhi peraturan yang baru, Philip Morris International Inc. akan meningkatkan rasio free float dari unit Indonesianya HM Sampoerna di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dari 1,82% menjadi 7,50%. Per Januari 2016, semua perusahaan yang terdaftar di BEI diharuskan menjual setidaknya 7,5% dari saham mereka kepada publik. Kendati begitu, saat ini Philip Morris memiliki 98,18% dari saham HM Sampoerna, manufaktur rokok terbesar di Indonesia dan salah satu perusahaan terbesar di BEI dalam konteks kapitalisasi pasar.

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Starting from January 2015, Indonesian tobacco products are subject to an average tax rise of 8.7 percent. The excise tax on machine-rolled cigarettes becomes IDR 355 (USD $0.03) and on hand-rolled cigarettes IDR 290 (USD $0.02) per stick. The tax hike is implemented by the government in a move to increase state income through tax revenues. The higher excise tax is expected to have a minor effect on tobacco sales in Indonesia as retail prices for cigarettes remain among the lowest in the Southeast Asian region.

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HM Sampoerna, Indonesia's largest tobacco company, decided to close two of its seven hand-rolled cigarette factories as the company needs restructuring due to its declining market share in the country's hand-rolled cigarettes industry. The market share fell from 30.4 percent in 2009 to 23.1 percent in 2013 as consumers are shifting to machine-rolled cigarettes. HM Sampoerna's hand-rolled cigarette plants in Jember and Lumajang (both in East Java) will be closed on 31 May 2014 and will lead to the termination of 4,900 employees.

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HM Sampoerna, the largest tobacco company of Indonesia, controls about 29 percent of the Indonesian tobacco market. The company operates nine manufacturing facilities in Indonesia: two machine-made kretek production facilities as well as seven hand-rolled kretek production facilities (kretek cigarettes are the highly popular clove cigarettes, a trademark of Indonesia). The company also distributes the famous Marlboro brand on the domestic market. In 2005, Sampoerna was sold to Philip Morris, an international cigarette and tobacco giant.

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Gudang Garam is a leading Indonesian manufacturer of kretek cigarettes (clove cigarettes), which are the favorite choice of Indonesians. Indonesia has a large and diverse tobacco consumer market with a significant percentage of adult smokers. In 2012, it was estimated that 67 percent of Indonesian men and 5 percent of Indonesian women smoke (Indonesia has a total population of over 240 million people). In 2012, Gudang Garam had a market share of about 20 percent of the domestic cigarette market.

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After the Indonesian government abandoned the idea to increase excises on cigarettes, the production of cigarettes in Indonesia is expected to increase to between 355 and 360 billion cigarettes in 2014. However, in order to meet that target, it is also important that the country's macroeconomy - particularly the inflation rate - remains stable. This year, Indonesian cigarette production is expected to reach 340 billion cigarettes. Indonesia has one of the world's largest markets for cigarettes.

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One of the last decisions of the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono administration before being replaced by the new Joko Widodo-led administration was to raise the tobacco excise by an average of 8.7 percent per 1 January 2015. This excise will be applied to all tobacco-related manufactured products. The higher excise, stipulated by a Finance Ministry decree, will boost state income and will also help to curb smoking. About 65 percent of Indonesian men smoke, supported by the cheap price of a package of cigarettes.

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Widespread cigarette consumption among Indonesians (especially men) can have a negative impact on the country’s current demographic bonus. One of Indonesia’s strongpoints in terms of economic make-up is that it has a large and young, thus potentially productive, population. Indonesians in the productive age (15 to 64 years) outnumber those that are categorized as youth (below 15 years) and elderly (over 65 years). This large productive group should provide a boost to Indonesia’s economy in the next two decades.

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