AISI: Motorcycle Sales Indonesia Down 8% y/y in November 2015
Indonesian motorcycle sales declined 8 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 535,682 units in November 2015 from 582,331 units in the same month last year. In the first 11 months of 2015, Indonesian motorcycle sales stand at a total of 5.6 million units, down 18.5 percent (y/y) from sales in the same period last year, reflecting weakened purchasing power in Southeast Asia's largest economy amid the economic slowdown, weak commodity prices, and high inflation during the first three quarters of the year. The Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI) expects to see 6.3 million sold motorcycle units in full-year 2015.
On a month-to-month basis, Indonesia's motorcycle sales fell 11 percent in November 2015. However, Gunadi Sinduwinata, General Chairman of the AISI, said declining motorcycle sales near the year-end are a seasonal phenomenon. The table below shows that sales fall in the last three months of the year.
A bigger problem are the low commodity prices. In line with weak commodity prices motorcycle sales have fallen most sharply in the commodity-rich regions of Sumatra and Kalimantan. On these islands local purchasing power is highly dependent on commodity prices. However, due to the volatile nature of (raw) commodity prices, there can be rapid up- and downswings in local purchasing power. Therefore, the AISI supports the government's push for downstream development in the natural resources industries.
As usual, motorcycle sales in Indonesia were led by Honda Motor Co Ltd and Yamaha Motor Co Ltd. Honda sold 4.1 million units in the January-November 2015 period (hence controlling 69 percent of the motorcycle sales market), followed by Yamaha with 1.6 million sold units (a 27.3 percent market share) over the same period. Smaller players are Kawasaki (commanding a 1.84 percent market share) and Suzuki (1.74 percent).
Regarding motorcycle sales next year, Sinduwinata expects to see stagnation. However, if the economy of Indonesia can grow more than 5 percent (y/y) in 2016, then he expects to see some growth in motorcycle sales. But, generally, domestic demand is expected to remain sluggish and therefore the AISI hopes to see an increase in motorcycle exports in 2016 (this year Indonesia is estimated to export 200,000 units). In order to raise the export figure, the AISI seeks to tap new markets for Indonesian-made motorcycles, such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, USA and Japan.
Meanwhile, Sinduwinata added that Indonesia's installed motorcycle production capacity currently stands at 9.6 million (per year). However, amid falling sales figures, only 67 percent of capacity is being utilized.
Indonesian Motorcycle Sales:
| Month | Sold M'cycles 2012 | Sold M'cycles 2013 | Sold M'cyles 2014 | Sold M'cycles 2015 |
| January | 645,863 | 646,082 | 579,361 | 502,783 |
| February | 666,136 | 649,434 | 679,086 | 556,091 |
| March | 619,678 | 665,334 | 725,629 | 546,169 |
| April | 617,508 | 658,673 | 727,790 | 524,775 |
| May | 611,251 | 644,668 | 739,601 | 469,630 |
| June | 541,918 | 659,504 | 750,829 | 574,714 |
| July | 579,077 | 702,423 | 534,490 | 421,838 |
| August | 429,236 | 488,983 | 609,198 | 622,089 |
| September | 620,499 | 675,902 | 706,938 | 603,102 |
| October | 626,901 | 714,264 | 675,652 | 602,882 |
| November | 621,224 | 687,329 | 582,331 | 535,682 |
| December | 485,166 | 551,283 | 556,380 | |
| Total | 7,064,457 |
7,743,879 |
7,867,195 | 5,959,755 |
Sources: AISI & Astra International