In various chapters in this report we have noted that external conditions are uncertain due to the ongoing tariff war between the United States and China and US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable style of leadership. These issues are expected to continue in 2019. Economists argue China could even lose a full percentage point of economic growth in 2019 if the current ceasefire in the tariff war falls apart and higher tariffs are imposed in 2019.

Monetary tightening in the USA suddenly does not seem to form a problem anymore. After four interest rate hikes in 2018, the US Federal Reserve now seems rather dovish and may only raise its benchmark interest rate twice in 2019. This could mean central banks in Asia – including Indonesia – will not have to drastically raise rates as they had done in 2018. This should then be positive for local economic growth. Moreover, a dovish Fed also implies less pressures on emerging market currencies, such as the Indonesian rupiah.


This articles discusses:

the findings of the latest Kontan CEO Confidence Index survey, which involve CEOs opinions of national politics, external challenges, household consumption and more

Read the full article in the December 2018 edition of our monthly research report. You can purchase this report by sending an email to or a WhatsApp message to the following number: +62(0)8788.410.6944