Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 365,240 confirmed infections, 12,617 deaths (19 October 2020)
19 October 2020 (closed)
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Approaching the end of the year, retail companies in Indonesia are now starting to prepare for the upcoming Christmas and New Year celebrations in late-December. Indonesia has two traditional peaks of rising consumer demand (hence rising inflationary pressures): (1) Ramadan/Idul Fitri festivities and (2) Christmas/New Year celebrations.
Therefore, for Indonesian retail companies the December month is an important one to boost their corporate earnings. Hence, good preparations are important.
For example, Fernando Repi, Corporate Manager at Indonesian retail chain Matahari Putra Prima, said the company is currently already raising its supplies in order to cater rising demand ahead of the year-end. Consumer demand can grow by 100 percent (compared to the "normal month"), especially in those regions where Christmas is celebrated. Preparations include the offering of discounts and promotions to lure consumers.
However, the problem is that Indonesia's household consumption has remained bleak so far in 2017 (hence limiting overall economic growth of Indonesia to 5.01 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2017). Therefore, retail sales growth triggered by the Christmas and New Year celebrations could be disappointing as well. Similarly, household consumption during the past Ramadan/Idul Fitri season in mid-2017 was bleak.
Meanwhile, Christine Natasya, analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, said not all retail companies will feel the benefit of rising consumer demand amid the Christmas and New Year celebrations. Only those that offer specific products will feel the advantage. For example Mitra Adiperkasa, a leading lifestyle retailer in Indonesia that has a diversified portfolio including fashion, department stores, kids, sports, food & beverage and lifestyle products.
So far this year, shares of Mitra Adiperkasa have risen more than 25 percent to IDR 6,800 a piece.
Stock Quote Mitra Adiperkasa - MAPI:
Another example is Ace Hardware Indonesia, a retailer engaged in the business of home improvement and lifestyle products (and which always offers various Christmas decorations in the last quarter of the year). Ace Hardware saw its August 2017 sales rise by nearly 17 percent (y/y) to IDR 3.5 trillion.
So far this year, shares of Ace Hardware have climbed around 53 percent to IDR 1,280 a piece. Natasya recommends this retailer's shares to investors with the near-term share price target at IDR 1,330 a piece.
Stock Quote ACE Hardware Indonesia - ACES: