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Darmin Nasution, Indonesia's Coordinating Economic Affairs Minister, is optimistic that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia's largest economy can expand between 5.1 and 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2017.
Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), believes Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2017 will not be as high as earlier predicted because there has been a correction in Indonesia's export performance.
Agus Martowardojo, the governor of Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), provided some new forecasts with regard to Indonesia's economic growth and rupiah. On Tuesday (06/06) Martowardojo told at a parliamentary hearing that he expects the rupiah to depreciate modestly in 2018, while economic growth should accelerate. Meanwhile, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said Indonesia's state budget deficit is estimated to widen slightly more-than-expected in 2017.
After Standard & Poor's (S&P) assigned investment grade status to Indonesia's sovereign rating, hence boosting positive perceptions about the Indonesian economy, the government should use this momentum to encourage public and private investment to push macroeconomic growth to the targeted range of 5.4 - 6.1 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.
Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that the nation's official gross domestic product (GDP) edged up to a growth pace of 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2017. This figure is in line with analysts' forecasts and constitutes the third consecutive year of accelerating economic growth of Indonesia in the first quarter. In Q1-2015 and Q1-2016 GDP growth was recorded at 4.71 percent (y/y) and 4.92 percent (y/y), respectively.
Stocks are under pressure in Asia on Friday morning (05/05) as metal prices continue to slide, while crude oil prices suffered their lowest close since November 2016 after a near five percent plunge yesterday on concerns of a US oil supply glut with analysts forecasting further losses, hence undermining the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s earlier efforts to boost the oil price through production cut agreements (chances of seeing deeper cuts in OPEC nations are slim).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be below earlier estimates in both the first and second quarters of 2017. However, the lender of last resort remains optimistic that Indonesia's full-year economic growth can reach a pace of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y), accelerating from 5.02 percent (y/y) in the preceding year.
Despite the improving export performance (supported by improving commodity prices), it may be difficult for Indonesia to deliver +5 percent year-on-year (y/y) gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2017. Main reason is subdued consumer purchasing power due to higher electricity tariffs in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Therefore, economic growth of Indonesia is expected to be rather similar to the 4.92 percent (y/y) growth pace recorded in Q1-2016.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati believes economic growth of Indonesia in 2017 can exceed the target that was set by the central government in the state budget. While the official target in the 2017 State Budget was set at 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y), Sri Mulyani expects to see the growth rate at 5.2 percent (y/y) on the back of rising consumption and investment, while she predicts an end to the trend of falling imports and exports.
Indonesian banks are expected to be cautious boosting credit disbursement in the next couple of quarters because the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is currently high with the gross NPL ratio hovering above 3 percent since mid-2016, approximately the same level as it was in 2011 when Indonesia's five-year economic slowdown commenced. Although various external and internal matters were to blame for Indonesia's 2011-2015 economic slowdown, the high NPL ratio today can undermine economic acceleration as credit growth is curbed.
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Indonesia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 (Q2-2024) was good, although slightly below our projection of 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y). According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data, which were released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) on 5 August 2024, the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.05 percent (y/y) in Q2-2024.
Before we take a look at the latest macroeconomic data from Indonesia, first there is some good news to share as both the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) decided to revise up their projections for the Indonesian economy in 2023.
As usual, we take a look at a number of macroeconomic indicators to assess the state of the Indonesian economy ahead of the release of Q2-2023 gross domestic product (GDP) data (we expect Indonesia’s Statistical Agency, or BPS, to release the data in the second week of August 2023).
On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.
The holy Islamic fasting month (Ramadan) and the weeklong celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan (known as Idul Fitri or Lebaran in Indonesia) is important for the Indonesian economy as it is a period when people consume more than usual.
On 06 February 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) released the latest official gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia. The data were in line with expectations.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said she expects to see a sharper economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2023 (Q1-2023) than the 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth that was recorded in the same quarter one year earlier.
For me, G20 summits were always interesting occasions as the leaders of the world’s strongest economies gather to discuss plans to move forward. This year, however, it was the first time that I was quite reluctant to follow the summit (despite the 2022 edition being organized on the Indonesian island of Bali).
As usual, we devote our first article to the Indonesian economy. But before we zoom in on the latest macroeconomic data of Indonesia, we first provide some context by discussing the global economy.
Before turning our attention to the economy of Indonesia, it is important to take a closer look at the global economy first. Fortunately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released a new update (called the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022) and so it’s certainly worthwhile to take a look at its conclusions.
