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Indonesia Investments Report - June 2020 Edition: Indonesia's New Normal
6 July 2020 (closed)
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Today's Headlines Infrastructure
On Sunday 14 July 2019 Indonesian President Joko Widodo unveiled his vision for Indonesia in the 2019-2024 period, which will be his second – and final - term as president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy (with the inauguration of his new cabinet scheduled for late-October 2019).
In line with our forecast, Indonesia’s economic growth continued to accelerate in 2018. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), which were released in early February 2019, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in full-year 2018, up from a growth rate of 5.07 percent in the preceding year.
The construction of three national strategic projects - worth a combined IDR 70 trillion (approx. USD $5 billion) - is targeted to be completed before the end of 2019. These three projects are: (1) the first phase of Jakarta's mass rapid transit (IDR 16 trillion), (2) the New Yogyakarta International airport (IDR 10.8 trillion), and (3) the Patimban seaport in Subang, West Java (IDR 43.2 trillion).
Basuki Hadimuljono, Indonesian Minister of Public Works and Public Housing, said the government continues to push for infrastructure development in the form of toll roads in various regions across Indonesia.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that the Indonesian government needs to make a more careful selection in terms of infrastructure development projects in order to curtail the big amount of imports that put pressure on the country's current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
Indonesia managed to rise sharply in the ranks of the World Bank's latest Logistics Performance Index (LPI). In the 2018 edition, which was released on Tuesday (24/07), Indonesia ranked 46th, up from 63rd in the preceding edition (released in 2016).
Indonesia's Transportation Ministry is optimistic that the construction of the Patimban Seaport in Subang (West Java) can commence in June 2018 after the Idul Fitri celebrations have completed. Meanwhile, the port operator tender is scheduled to be opened in July 2018. The USD $3.1 billion Patimban seaport is envisaged to become a key international seaport in Indonesia with a 7.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) capacity.
The Indonesian government targets to see 17 toll road projects, all part of the national strategic projects program, being completed before the end of 2019. Two of these projects - (1) the 7.2 km-long Bekasi-Cawang-Kampung Melayu toll road and (2) the 11 km-long Bogor Ring Road - are estimated to be ready for the public before the end of 2018. Combined, the 17 toll road projects cost IDR 105.35 trillion (approx. USD $7.6 billion) and will contribute to improved connectivity in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
The Committee for the Acceleration of Priority Infrastructure Delivery (in Indonesian: Komisi Penyediaan Percepatan Infrastruktur Prioritas, or KPPIP), said 14 projects have been removed from the national strategic projects list. KPPIP Program Director Rainier Haryanto said an evaluation showed that these 14 projects failed to meet specific criteria and can therefore not be started - or reach financial close - before the fourth quarter of 2019.
It has been a while since we last reported on developments surrounding the Palapa Ring project, one of Indonesia's priority infrastructure projects in the 2016-2019 period. The Palapa Ring, which involves an undersea fiber-optic cable network that stretches across 13,000 kilometers as well as an onshore network of nearly 22,000 kilometers, will provide fast broadband Internet to Indonesians in both the urban and rural areas across the country. Once completed, all Indonesian districts (kabupaten) are connected through fiber-optic communication.
Latest Columns Infrastructure
One characteristic of the Indonesian economy is that the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in this USD $1.0 trillion economy. They not only play an important role because some of them rank among Indonesia’s biggest companies (in terms of profit, sales and assets), thereby generating plenty of money for the government (in the form of tax revenue or dividend) while at the same time creating jobs for millions of Indonesians.
On 25 September 2019, only a few days before Indonesia’s House of Representatives (in Indonesian: Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, or DPR) finished its 2014-2019 term, it approved the 2020 State Budget bill (UU APBN 2020).
Based on the latest reports - and contrary to earlier plans - the Indonesian government will not postpone the development of 15,200 MW of power projects. Earlier the government said it wanted to delay various power projects in an effort to curtail imports, thus improve the country's current account balance and ease heavy pressures on the rupiah exchange rate.
If we take a look at Indonesia's central government spending in the first four months of 2018, then we detect something interesting. Overall, government spending has grown in the January-April 2018 period (compared to the same period one year earlier). However, growth in government spending is led by rising social assistance spending and rising subsidy spending. Meanwhile, growth of infrastructure spending has been much less robust. Does this mean that the Indonesian government has curtailed infrastructure development spending in order to relieve rising pressures on the budget deficit?
The tourism industry of Indonesia is one of the most important industries in terms of the nation's foreign exchange earnings. However, compared to its neighboring countries - specifically Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand - Indonesia lags behind in terms of foreign visitor arrivals. This "failure" is partly attributed to the weak state of Indonesia's infrastructure. This includes the lack of enough airports or the lack of enough aircraft and passenger handling capacity at existing airports.
Cement sales were good in January 2018 for Indonesian cement manufacturers, growth that is attributed to rising cement demand on the back of the government-led infrastructure development program, particularly the construction of toll roads. Indonesia's cement consumption rose 9.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.68 million tons in January 2018.
The completion of the high-speed Jakarta-Bandung railway in West Java is expected to see a delay due to land acquisition and licensing troubles. The USD $5.9 billion project is now expected to be completed in 2020, one year later than originally planned.
Revenue and profit of Wijaya Karya (Wika), one of Indonesia's biggest construction companies, is partly dependent on developments surrounding the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway project. Earlier this month, Indonesian President Joko Widodo ordered an evaluation of this railway project, which saw groundbreaking in 2016 but has shown limited progress ever since.
It was a solid year for the Indonesian economy. The macroeconomic fundamentals of the nation have strengthened due to the hard work of the Indonesian government under the leadership of President Joko Widodo. However, there is no room for complacency as there remain major bottlenecks, while legislative and presidential elections - in which voters can approve or disapprove Widodo's performance - are scheduled for 2019.
Last week Indonesian President Joko Widodo inaugurated the 41.7-kilometer Parbarakan-Sei Rampah section of the Medan-Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi toll road in North Sumatra. This Parbarakan-Sei Rampah section is now the longest piece of toll road on the island of Sumatra and will boost connectivity in the province of North Sumatra.
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