On 5 July 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such an update on the new mandatory use of rupiah regulation, June inflation, the government’s economic growth target, consumer confidence, the property market, infrastructure development, and more.

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The Indonesian government revised its 2015 economic growth target. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, stated on Friday (03/07) that the government’s previous target was unrealistically high at 5.8 percent (y/y) given the sluggish international and domestic economic context. The government revised down the GDP growth target of 2015 to 5.2 percent (y/y). Djalil said that the global economy is forecast to grow 2.9 percent (y/y) in 2015 from an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent (y/y).

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Indonesia’s manufacturing activity continued to contract in June. It was the ninth consecutive month that the country’s manufacturing sector contracted. The Nikkei/Markit purchasing manager's index (PMI) rose slightly to 47.8 in June 2015 from 47.1 in May, implying that the sector contracted at a slower pace but remained well below the level of 50 that separates contraction from expansion. Contraction continued due to persistent declines in new orders and production. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures (7.26 percent y/y in June) persist.

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Indonesian authorities, i.e. the government and central bank (Bank Indonesia), announced or revised several macroeconomic assumptions for 2015 and 2016. Perhaps most importantly, Indonesia’s 2016 economic growth assumption has been revised down to the range of 5.5 - 6.0 percent (y/y), down from its previous assumption of 5.8 - 6.2 percent (y/y). Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro also stated that the government will assume the rupiah at IDR 13,000 - 13,400 per US dollar for the 2016 calendar year.

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Contrary to the performance of most other Asian stock indices, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.52 percent to 4,959.25 points on Monday (22/06). Other Asian markets were supported by renewed hopes of averting a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone after the debt-ridden country gave new proposals to its creditors in the Eurozone over the past weekend. According to the Greek government these proposals are mutually beneficial. Ahead of the ‘emergency’ meeting today, the euro and European stocks tend to rise heavily.

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Several international institutions revised down their outlook for economic growth of Indonesia in 2015 as foreign investors have been somewhat disappointed with the performance of the new Indonesian government, while the global economic picture remains far from rosy. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse and Nomura Holdings have all slashed Indonesia’s economic growth forecast this year to below the five percent (year-on-year) mark. Last year Indonesia’s economic growth touched a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) revised down its economic growth outlook for Indonesia in 2015. In a meeting with the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that Indonesia’s GDP growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent (y/y) this year. Previously, the central bank projected economic growth in the range of 5.4 to 5.8 percent (y/y). However, after seeing weak growth in the first quarter (4.71 percent y/y), projections had to be revised.

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In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR), Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the economy of Indonesia is currently facing four global risks. These four risks are low international commodity prices, China’s slowing economic expansion, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone and, lastly, further monetary tightening to be conducted by the US Federal Reserve. These issues are not new and have already contributed to slowing economic growth in Indonesia.

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In the latest report of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) the institution emphasizes that gender equality in employment should be promoted by governments in order to combat income inequality and thus achieve not only a more just and harmonious society but also boost inclusive economic growth. In most countries gender equality remains a matter of concern. The report also states that governments should not ignore the importance of broadening access to jobs and encourage investment in education.

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After seeing the disappointing GDP growth figure of 4.71 percent (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, investors have become concerned about Indonesia’s economic growth in the remainder of the year. The poor Q1-2015 GDP growth was caused by the country’s weak export performance (due to the sluggish global economy and low commodity prices), Indonesia’s high interest rate environment (curbing people’s purchasing power and business expansion of local companies), and sluggish government spending.

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The government of Indonesia suspended all cooperation with US multinational banking and financial services firm JP Morgan Chase after the US bank double downgraded Indonesia from overweight to underweight without elaborating too much on the exact motives behind this drastic move. According to Indonesian government officials this downgrade is excessive and lacks evidentiary support or rational justification. Moreover, they argue this "misleading" downgrade has a big psychological impact on investors and therefore it "disturbs Indonesia's financial stability".

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American multinational finance company Goldman Sachs Group Inc believes Indonesia currently has strong enough economic fundamentals to cope with monetary tightening in the USA. Indonesia is in a better position now compared to 2013 when the taper tantrum (the winding down of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program) led to massive capital outflows from emerging markets (and Indonesia was among the biggest victims with the rupiah weakening more than 25 percent against the US dollar in 2013).

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The year 2016 was a good one in terms of foreign investment in Jakarta's residential property sector even though Indonesia's property market remained sluggish. Various foreign property developers - including China's state-owned China Communications Construction Group (CCCG), Japanese firms Mitsubishi Corporation and Tokyu Land Corporation as well as Hong Kong's HongKong Land and Malaysia's Sime Darby Group - announced to engage in big property projects (in and around the capital city of Jakarta) that have a combined value of USD $2.8 billion.

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Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Indonesia's long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings at 'BBB-' but revised the outlook from 'stable' to 'positive'. The improvement is primarily attributed to Indonesia's low government debt burden and favorable economic growth outlook, while structural reforms (the government's economic policy packages that have been launched since September 2015 as well as the tax amnesty program) are gradually improving the nation's business and investment climate.

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Throughout the year 2016 the economy of Indonesia was plagued by major challenges stemming from abroad. In fact, most countries around the globe have been busy to soften the impact of low global economic growth on the local economy. In the case of Indonesia, authorities have unveiled a series of 14 economic policy packages aimed at improving investment, trade and purchasing power. Although it remains difficult to implement these packages in full force (due to the low quality of human resources at the local government level or conflicts of interests), they have helped to push Indonesia's economic growth into higher gear.

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An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Luis E. Breuer, visited Indonesia between 7 and 18 November 2016 to conduct the annual Article IV Consultation. The IMF team exchanged views with Indonesian government officials, Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia), and other public agencies, as well as representatives of the private sector, academics, and students on recent economic and financial market developments and the near-to-medium-term economic outlook.

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Bank Indonesia (BI) is the central bank of the Republic of Indonesia, and was known as "De Javasche bank" or "The Java Bank" in the colonial period.  Bank Indonesia was founded on 1 July 1953 from the nationalization of De Javasche Bank. As an independent state institution, Bank Indonesia is fully autonomous in formulating and implementing each of its assumed tasks and most policy goals tend to center around the ability to stabilize prices in the economy.

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After two years in office, the time is ripe now to take a look at the performance and accomplishments of the government under the leadership of Joko Widodo, often called Jokowi. Indonesia's seventh president was a bit unlucky. In the first year of his rule, commodity prices were at multi-year lows (curbing Indonesia's foreign exchange earnings) amid sluggish global economic growth, while capital outflows from Indonesia occurred on the back of monetary tightening in the USA, sending the rupiah to a 17-year low in September 2015.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) has become slightly less optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2016. Bank Indonesia revised down its growth projection to below the 5 percent (y/y) mark for Q3-2016 (from an earlier forecast of 5.2 percent). However, the lender of last resort still expects to see a better performance compared to the 4.73 percent (y/y) pace posted in Q3-2015. Meanwhile, low inflation and a strong rupiah could result in another interest rate cut in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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In line with the performance of most stocks in Asia, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 1.66 percent to 5,281.92 points on Friday (09/09). Several matters brought negative market sentiments to Asia: the European Central Bank (ECB) seems unwilling to boost asset purchases, North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test, while Indonesia's central bank announced that the nation's retail sales expanded at a slower pace in July 2016. Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.34 percent to IDR 13,108 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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