Inflasi di Indonesia (Indeks Harga Konsumen)

Secara historis, tingkat dan volatilitas inflasi Indonesia lebih tinggi dibanding negara-negara berkembang lain. Sementara negara-negara berkembang lain tingkat inflasinya mencapai sekitar tiga sampai lima persen per tahun dalam periode 2005 sampai 2013, tingkat inflasi di Indonesia mencapai rata-rata 8.5 persen per tahun dalam periode yang sama.

Inflation Indonesia 2000-2014 Consumer Price Index Indonesia Investments

Puncak volatilitas inflasi Indonesia berhubungan dengan kebijakan penyesuaian harga oleh pemerintah. Harga-harga energi (bahan bakar minyak dan listrik) ditetapkan oleh pemerintah dan oleh karena itu tidak mengikut kondisi pasar, yang berarti defisit yang muncul harus diserap oleh subsidi. Hal ini mengakibatkan tekanan besar pada defisit anggaran tahunan pemerintah dan juga membatasi pengeluaran publik dalam hal-hal produktif jangka panjang, seperti infrastruktur dan pengeluaran untuk soal sosial. Selain itu, mengatur ulang subsidi energi (menaikkan harga energi) dapat mengakibatkan timbulnya risiko politik karena keresahan sosial akan timbul bilamana ada tekanan inflasi. Salah satu ciri khas Indonesia adalah bahwa sebagian besar penduduknya berada sedikit di atas garis kemiskinan, yang berarti bilamana kejutan inflasi yang relatif kecil terjadi, mereka akan jatuh ke bawah garis kemiskinan itu. Waktu pemerintahan Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono memutuskan untuk mengurangi subsidi BBM secara besar-besaran di akhir tahun 2005, dikarenakan harga minyak dunia yang naik cukup tinggi, tingkat inflasi Indonesia langsung berubah menjadi dua digit antara 14 sampai 19 persen (year on year) sampai bulan oktober 2006. Selanjutnya, inflasi inti di Indonesia - yang tidak termasuk barang-barang yang rentan terhadap volatilitas harga sementara - juga kena volatilitas karena efek samping penyesuain harga energi pada ekenomi (misalnya kenaikan harga transportasi).

Pengurangan subsidi energi tetap menjadi prioritas utama pemerintah. Awal tahun 2012, pemerintah mengusulkan kenaikan harga BBM, tetapi keresahan sosial dan oposisi politik di parlemen menolak rencana dadakan ini. Akhirnya pada bulan Juni 2013, harga premium naik 44 persen menjadi Rp 6,500 dan solar naik sebanyak 22 persen menjadi Rp 5,500 per liter. Meskipun terjadi kenaikan harga pada tahun 2013, sebagian besar harga BBM Indonesia masih disubsidi dan oleh karena itu berbagai organisasi internasional (seperti Bank Dunia dan Dana Moneter Internasional/IMF) serta institusi-institusi dalam negeri (seperti Kamar Dagang Indonesia/Kadin) menyokong sepenuhnya pengurangan subsidi secara lebih lanjut. Pada tahun 2013 dan 2014, pemerintah juga telah mengurangi subsidi listrik - baik untuk rumah tangga (kecuali segmen masyarakat miskin) maupun industri.

Outlook inflasi Indonesia sangat dipengaruhi oleh keputusan pengurangan tidaknya subsidi tersebut. Bank Dunia memperkirakan kenaikan harga BBM sebanyak Rp 2,000 dapat menambahkan sekitar tiga poin persentase pada tingkat inflasi umum dan dapat menambahkan sekitar satu poin persentase pada inflasi inti. Kenaikan harga listrik diperkirakan akan menyebabkan efek yang lebih kecil (< 1 persen) terhadap laju inflasi. Sebagai gambaran, Bank Indonesia menargetkan tingkat inflasi sebanyak 4.5 persen pada tahun 2013. Namun setelah kenaikan harga BBM dan listrik, inflasi naik menjadi 8.37 persen di akhir tahun (yoy). 


Inflation of Indonesia 2008-2015:

   2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015
Inflation
(annual percent change)
  9.8   4.8   5.1   5.4   4.3   8.4     -     -
Bank Indonesia Target
(annual percent change)
  5.0   4.5   5.0   5.0   4.5   4.5   4.5   4.0

Sources: World Bank and Bank Indonesia


Indonesia's characteristic volatile inflation rate causes a traditionally larger deviation from the annual inflation projections of Bank Indonesia. The consequence of such inflationary uncertainty is that it creates economic costs, such as the country's higher (domestic and international) borrowing costs compared to its emerging market peers. When a good track record of meeting annual inflation targets is established, greater monetary policy credibility will follow.

The lack of quantity and quality of Indonesia's infrastructure also entails robust economic costs. This hampers connectivity in the archipelago, thereby increasing transportation costs for services and products. Distribution disturbances due to infrastructure-related issues are frequently reported and made the government realize the importance of more investments in the country's infrastructure. Infrastructure has been labelled a top priority in the Masterplan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia's Economic Development (abbreviated MP3EI); an ambitious long-term government development plan which is yet to bear fruit.

Food prices are traditionally highly volatile in Indonesia and subsequently impose a big burden on the poorer households who live under or just above the poverty line. These households spend more than half of their total expenditure on food items. Higher food prices therefore cause serious poverty basket inflation which may lead to increases in the level of poverty. Failing harvests in combination with a slow reaction of the government to substitute food products with food imports are causes for inflation peaks.


Traditional Peaks of Inflation in Indonesia

Discarding administered price adjustments, there are two traditional annual peaks of inflation in Indonesia. The December-January period always brings higher prices due to Christmas and New Year celebrations, while the traditional floods in January (amid a peak of the rainy season) results in disrupted distribution channels in several regions and cities, thus causing higher logistics costs. The second peak comes in the July-August period. Inflationary pressures in these two months emerge as a result of the holiday period, the holy Muslim fasting month (Ramadan), Idul Fitri celebrations and the arrival of the new school year. A marked increase is detectable in spending on food and other consumables, accompanied by retailers adjusting prices upwards.


Monetary Policy and the BI Rate

With annual GDP growth close to six percent, the economy of Indonesia has been rapidly expanding in recent years, characterized by surging domestic demand (domestic consumption accounts for around two-thirds of the country's economic growth), robust private sector credit growth and increased business access to credit. Moreover, public sector wages have increased due to administrative reforms and private sector wage growth has accelerated (Indonesia's regional minimum wages were raised significantly in 2012 and 2013). As robust economic growth brings along inflationary pressures, recent monetary policies (in 2013 and 2014) were aimed at safeguarding financial stability, particularly after inflation surged due to the 2013 fuel prices hike and amid the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program (which led to large capital outflows from emerging markets, including Indonesia), at the expense of further economic growth.

Bank Indonesia (BI), Indonesia's central bank, has as main objective to ensure rupiah stability. It uses a wide range of instruments to stem mounting inflationary pressures in the country. Its bank rate policy is adjusted when inflation targets are not met. Between February 2012 and June 2013, the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) had been set at a historic low of 5.75 percent. After this period, inflationary pressures increased due to higher fuel prices and global uncertainty about the US quantitative easing program. Subsequent capital outflows resulted in sharp rupiah depreciation. Therefore, Bank Indonesia adjusted its BI rate upwards. Another measure to tighten monetary policy was the raising of the reserve requirements on both local and foreign currency deposits at Indonesian banks. Lastly, BI curtailed foreign investors' demand for Central Bank bills (SBIs) by extending the required holding period from one to six months, stretching the maturity of SBI issues to nine months and by introducing longer maturity non-tradable term deposits (which are available to banks only). These measures aimed at mitigating the flow of 'hot money' into Indonesia.


Benchmark Interest Rate of Indonesia 2008-2013:

   2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013
Bank Indonesia Rate
(percent at year-end)
 9.25  6.50  6.50  6.00  5.75  7.50

Source: Bank Indonesia


Indonesian Inflation in Global Perspective

The table below puts Indonesia's recent inflation performance (annual percent change) in global perspective by comparing it to inflation figures from the United States (USA) and China.

     2009    2010    2011    2012    2013
 USA    -0.4     1.6     3.0     1.7     1.5
 China    -0.7     3.3     5.4     2.6     2.6
 Indonesia     4.8     5.1     5.4     4.3     8.4

¹ indicates prognosis
Source: World Bank