The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate had appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 11,758 per US dollar on Monday (04/08) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index by 15:40 pm local Jakarta time. Although the rupiah had appreciated to a stronger level (IDR 11,713) earlier on Monday, the currency slightly rebounded after Statistics Indonesia announced that the country posted a USD $300 million trade deficit in June 2014, thereby placing more pressure on the nation’s current account balance.
However, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) depreciated 1.35 percent to IDR 11,747 per US dollar on Monday (04/08).
Meanwhile, inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year) in July 2014, which means that Bank Indonesia will most likely keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent in August’s Board of Governor’s Meeting. This level is expected to push the country’s current account deficit to a more sustainable level. In the first quarter of 2014, the current account deficit amounted to USD $4.2 billion, or 2.03 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). This deficit is particularly caused by a large deficit in the oil sector. Another reason why Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain the current BI rate is because of the risk of capital outflows amid looming interest rate hikes in the USA early next year.
Current Account Balance of Indonesia (in USD million):