On Thursday (6 April 2023), Indonesia Investments released the March 2023 edition of its monthly report. In this report we offer in-depth analyses of the key economic, political and social matters that impacted on Indonesia in the month of March 2023.
Special attention in the March 2023 edition is given to the recent banking crisis that originated from the United States (and spread worldwide through the near-collapse of Credit Suisse). What caused this banking crisis, and do we need to be concerned that it can spread to Indonesia? Well, we can state here that we are not concerned at this moment. And, in one of the report's articles, we explain why.
The digital (tech) sector also plays a role in the latest crisis (because the three regional banks that collapsed in the US in the second week of March 2023 all focused on customers in the tech sector). So, to what extent do we need to be concerned over a bubble bursting in the tech sector (similar to the dot-com bubble that burst in the late 1990s)? After all, giant tech companies like GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Bukalapak struggle to post profit, and thus basically only manage to survive thanks to investors who put big funds into these platforms. But, the alarming matter is that these tech giants don't seem to have a business model that generates net profit.
Meanwhile, again related to the global banking crisis, the rupiah seems to have room for strengthening against the US dollar in the near future as the US Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy. In response to the banking crisis, the Fed now has to show a more dovish face (and inject more liquidity to ease concerns). This should imply some US dollar weakening.
Considering we have entered the Ramadan month (a period when demand typically peaks in Indonesian society), we also devote attention to these Islamic celebrations and their positive impact on the Indonesian economy. Also, the Idul Fitri holiday (when millions of people visit the suburban or rural areas for a few days, a phenomenon called mudik) will give rise to a significant money circulation or rotation in the Archipelago.
Next is the property sector. We present an analysis of Indonesia's property sector starting from the 2010-2013 period when the last property boom occured in Indonesia. Typically, Indonesia experiences a property boom once in a decade. So, could we soon see a new boom?
The approaching 2024 legislative and presidential elections are also discussed in our latest report. What have been the latest, most relevant, developments in the context of these elections, such as a highly controversial decision made by the Central Jakarta Court, and the possible presidential and vice-presidential candidates? And, who dominates the recent opinion polls and surveys?
Lastly, we offer updates on several macroeconomic indicators to assess the state of the Indonesian economy. This includes inflation, trade, manufacturing activity, and monetary policy.
The March 2023 report (an electronic report) can be ordered by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org or a message to +62.882.9875.1125 (including WhatsApp).
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