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Indonesia’s current account deficit is expected to widen to the range of 3.30 – 3.40 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018, above the 3.0 percent of GDP threshold that is usually considered to separate a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.
Adding more pressures onto the rupiah, Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Wednesday (15/08) that the country's trade balance deteriorated significantly. In July 2018 Indonesia had a USD $2.03 billion trade deficit, much bigger than had been expected by analysts (and constituting the widest monthly trade deficit in the past five years). The latest deficit was particularly attributed to rapidly rising imports into Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Both Indonesia's Trade Ministry and the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) confirmed that the mandatory national insurance for coal and crude palm oil (CPO) exports regulation has been postponed by another six months. Thus the regulation is now expected to come into effect per 1 February 2019.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country's trade balance showed a USD $1.74 billion surplus in June 2018. It was a much bigger surplus than had been estimated by analysts, primarily caused by weaker import growth than had been predicted by analysts.
After a (revised) USD $1.63 billion trade deficit in April 2018, Indonesia posted another big trade deficit in the following month. In May 2018 Indonesia's trade deficit reached USD $1.52 billion, slightly lower from the deficit in the preceding month but still constituting a wider deficit than had been expected by analysts. Despite rising exports in May, a soaring crude oil price managed to put big pressures on Indonesia's trade balance.
The Indonesian government scrapped Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods. This regulation, which was originally scheduled to be implemented in May 2018 (but its implementation had already been postponed), would have made it mandatory to use local vessels (owned by Indonesian sea shipping companies) for the export of coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and rice.
Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia's trade balance showed a USD $1.63 billion deficit in April 2018. The deficit, which surprised most analysts' expectations, is the nation's biggest monthly trade deficit in four years (April 2014). While exports grew 9.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $14.47 billion, imports grew much more impressive - at a pace of 34.7 percent (y/y) - to USD $16.09 billion last month.
Indonesia posted a surprising USD $1.1 billion trade surplus in March 2018, the country's largest trade surplus since October 2017 and effectively ending a three-month trade deficit streak. Suhariyanto, Head of Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), told reporters at a press conference on Monday (16/04) that the trade surplus was caused by a USD $2.0 billion surplus in the non-oil & gas sector. The balance in the oil & gas sector, however, remained negative (showing a USD $924.5 million deficit in March).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects the nation’s trade balance to swing into surplus in March 2018, after recording two monthly trade deficits in January and February (USD $756 million and USD $116 million, respectively), as pressures from imports of raw materials and capital goods are seen sliding. Incumbent Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said a USD $1.1 billion surplus is possible in the third month of 2018, implying the trade balance would show a surplus, overall, in the first quarter of 2018.
Trade finance, a facility to finance export and import activities, remains attractive for the banking sector of Indonesia in 2018. In the first two months of 2018 trade finance surged 20 percent.
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In line with expectations, the economic growth rate of Indonesia was recorded at the level of 5.04 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2025. This is a good result as it slightly exceeded analyst expectations (in our case, we had projected a 5 percent y/y growth rate), and was also a faster growth pace than the one recorded by Indonesia in the same quarter one year earlier (4.95 percent y/y).
The economic growth rate of Indonesia in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1-2025) came in slightly below our projection of 4.9 – 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y). But, indeed, we had already detected a (general) weakening in internal and external conditions, which was reflected in the macroeconomic data of Indonesia that we discussed in our April 2025 report. And so, it was certainly not a shock.
Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 was slightly better than we had anticipated. Just prior to the release of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data on 5 February 2025 (by Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), we revised our outlook for Indonesia’s Q4-2024 economic growth from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to the range of 4.9–5.0 percent (y/y) due to a number of weaker-than-estimated macroeconomic data.
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade balance showed a surplus of USD $4.42 billion in November 2024. It was the second-biggest trade surplus so far in 2024 (after March), with one more month to go.
Indonesia’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 (Q2-2024) was good, although slightly below our projection of 5.1 percent year-on-year (y/y). According to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data, which were released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) on 5 August 2024, the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.05 percent (y/y) in Q2-2024.
On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.
Last month we warned that Indonesia’s trade performance could easily continue to contract in February 2023, thereby continuing the trend we have seen since August 2022. Moreover, February is a short month, and therefore it typically has trouble to compete with other months in terms of trade activity.
Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.
Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.
On 7 February 2022, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the final quarter of 2021.
