Two important indicators to measure the condition of an economy are car and cement sales as both statistics provide valuable information about people’s purchasing power (and consumer confidence) as well as infrastructure and property development. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s car and cement sales declined (compared to the same period in the preceding year), triggering concern that economic growth will fall accordingly. In the first quarter of 2014, Indonesia’s GDP growth had already slowed to 5.14 percent (y/y).

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Based on preliminary data, domestic car sales in Indonesia fell 7.2 percent (y/y) to 96,149 vehicles in January 2015 from the same month in 2014. It is believed that the recent (subsidized) fuel price reforms, implemented by the Joko Widodo administration in November and January (which led to accelerated inflation), have made consumers hesitant to buy a car. Car sales are an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and the general state of the economy. In general, when car sales rise the economy is growing.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia were slightly down in 2014 compared to the previous year. Amid the slowing economy (Indonesia’s GDP growth may have fallen from 5.8 percent in 2013 to 5.1 percent in 2014) and political uncertainty (triggered by the fragmented results of the country’s legislative and presidential elections) car sales totaled 1.21 million units in 2014, down 1.8 percent from 1.23 million sold vehicles in 2013, according to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo).

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia declined 15 percent to 91,449 vehicles in November 2014 (from the same month last year). Declining car sales in Southeast Asia’s largest economy are believed to be caused by the recent subsidized fuel price hike. In mid-November the Joko Widodo-led government raised prices of subsidized fuels (low-octane gasoline and diesel) over 30 percent in order to reduce state spending on fuel consumption and reallocate funds to structural economic and social development.

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Domestic sales of low-cost green cars (LCGCs) in Indonesia may exceed the level of 200,000 units in 2015, a 14 percentage point growth from an estimated 175,000 sold LCGC units this year. Amid slowing domestic car sales (a consequence of the country’s slowing economic growth and tighter monetary policy), popularity of the recently introduced LCGC has managed to support total car sales in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. In the first ten months of 2014, a total of 1.04 million cars were sold, up 1.72 percent from the same period last year.

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Although domestic car sales in Indonesia have again exceeded the psychological level of 100,000 vehicles per month, sales have fallen 12 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 101,801 units in September 2014. In September last year, car sales were heavily supported by the newly-introduced low cost green car (LCGC). Domestic car sales constitute an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and domestic consumption. Domestic consumption accounts for 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia.

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Indonesian car sales, an important indicator to measure consumer confidence and domestic consumption, surged 24.1 percent (year-on-year) to 96,728 vehicles in August 2014. However, this growth pace is heavily influenced by public holidays and thus does not signal a marked improvement in Indonesian consumer confidence. In August last year, Indonesian car sales fell because of the limited amount of working days amid the Lebaran holiday (Idul Fitri), causing reduced production and distribution of cars and motorcycles.

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Car sales in Indonesia fell 17 percent (month-on-month) in July 2014 to 91 thousand vehicles, while motorcycle sales plunged 28 percent to 539,171 over the same period. The main reason for this sharp decline is the limited number of working days in July due to the Lebaran holiday (also known as Idul Fitri and which marks the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan). As a consequence of this public holiday, production of cars and motorcycles declined, and less cars and motorcycles could be distributed to Indonesian dealers (wholesalers).

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According to data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 13 percent to 109,706 car units in June 2014 from the previous month (97,147 vehicles) as people increased car purchases ahead of the Idul Fitri (Lebaran) festivities, which commence after the holy fasting month of Ramadan has ended on 28 July. Idul Fitri involves the exodus of millions of Indonesians from the cities to their places of origin. Ahead of this celebration, car sales always increase.

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Apart from the traditional earnings originating from the export of coal, crude palm oil (CPO) as well as income from the tourism sector, Indonesia aims to increase foreign exchange earnings through boosting exports of cars and automotive parts. The Indonesian Trade Ministry said that it expects the value of exported cars and components to rise to USD $4.8 billion in 2014, a 10 percentage point growth from the USD $4.4 billion worth of earnings recorded in 2013 as Indonesian car producers have been boosting sales abroad.

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The government of Indonesia eyes rapid growth of car exports in the two decades ahead. By the year 2035 the government targets to see car shipments from Indonesia rise to 1.5 million vehicles (from around 200,000 exported units in 2016). By that year, exported vehicles should contribute 37.5 percent of total Indonesian car sales.

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The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) raised its target for Indonesia's car exports (completely built up units, or, CBU) to 220,000 vehicles in 2016. This figure implies Gaikindo targets to see a 6 percent (y/y) increase in car exports from 207,691 units last year. Gaikindo Chairman Jongkie Sugiarto said the global economy has started to stabilize and this should have a positive effect on Indonesia's car shipments.

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Car sales in Indonesia continued to decline. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) Indonesian car sales (delivery to dealers) fell around 10 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 84,885 vehicles in the first month of the year from 94,194 units in January 2015. Retail sales, on the other hand, showed a 1 percentage point growth to 82,423 vehicles over the same period.

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Whereas the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), expects Indonesia's car sales to rise five percent (y/y) in 2016 on the back of improving economic conditions, US-based consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects to see a 4.3 percent decline in the country's car sales this year as continued rupiah depreciation and persistently low commodity prices undermine Indonesians' purchasing power.

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Both car sales and motorcycle sales declined in 2015 in Indonesia. Primary reason for this decline was people's weaker purchasing power amid the slowing economy and persistently low commodity prices. Indonesia's GDP growth is estimated to have fallen to 4.7 percent year-on-year (y/y), the slowest growth pace since 2009. Meanwhile, amid the sluggish global economy (especially China's slowdown) and falling oil prices, Indonesia gains relatively little from its commodity exports.

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Indonesian car sales may rise up to ten percent (y/y) to 1.1 million vehicles in 2016, from an estimated 1 million this year, amid accelerating economic growth in Indonesia. Car sales in 2015 have been disappointing, declining 18 percent (y/y) to 853,008 units in the first ten months of 2015, due to people's weakening purchasing power. Sales in 2016 are expected to be boosted by sales of the low-cost green car (LCGC), which was introduced on the Indonesian market in late-2013, and the crossover utility vehicle, a car that has gained popularity recently.

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Indonesian automotive group Indomobil Sukses Internasional is facing challenges in 2015. The listed company, affiliated with the Salim Group (one of Indonesia’s largest conglomerates), is plagued by intense competition in the car industry of Indonesia, while it also feels the negative impact of the weak rupiah (which is depreciating against the US dollar). Over 2014, the company posted a net loss of IDR 128.2 billion (USD $9.9 million), down significantly from net profit of IDR 532.5 billion it recorded in the preceding year.

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Global consulting firm Frost & Sullivan expects Indonesian car sales to grow five percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.28 million vehicles in 2015, particularly on the rising popularity of the low cost green car (LCGC) and the USA-based company’s assumption that the economy of Indonesia will expand by 5.5 percent (y/y) this year. The LCGC was introduced on the Indonesian market in late 2013 after the government had offered tax incentives to car manufacturers that met requirements of fuel efficiency targets.

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Amid Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as well as looming higher prices of subsidized fuels (which will cause accelerated inflation and declining purchasing power), domestic car sales in Indonesia have fallen 6.3 percent to 104,916 units in October 2014 from the same month last year according to preliminary data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). Cumulatively, car sales reached 1.04 million units in the first ten months of 2014, a slight 1.6 percentage point increase from the same period last year.

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After Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have confirmed that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) will be raised in November 2014 in an attempt to ease the country’s wide current account deficit and government budget deficit (which are primarily caused by costly oil imports), domestic car manufacturers and dealers are expected to post declining earnings in 2015. Besides the subsidized fuel price issue, Indonesia’s car industry is also negatively impacted by the country’s slowing economic growth.

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