Indek Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) adalah salah satu dari beberapa indeks di Asia yang melawan tren pada perdagangan hari ini (02/11). Sementara kebanyakan indeks Asia, dipimpin oleh saham di Jepang, jatuh karena kekuatiran mengenai kontraksi yang berkelanjutan di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), IHSG berhasil naik 0,22% menjadi 4.464,96 poin. Sementara itu, harga minyak jatuh dan dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) memperpanjang kerugian terhadap sebagian besar mata uang negara-negara berkembang.

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In line with estimates, Indonesia posted 0.08 percent (m/m) deflation in October 2015. Deflation was primarily caused by lower food prices in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Annual inflation eased to 6.25 percent (y/y) and is expected to ease more markedly in the last two months of the year as the impact of last year November's subsidized fuel price hike will be swept away from inflation figures. Indonesia's core inflation - which excludes volatile food and administered prices - was 5.02 percent (y/y) in October.

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On 25 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government's fifth stimulus package, Indonesia's tourism and automotive industries, Bank Indonesia's inflation forecast, a stock & rupiah update, the latest World Bank report, commodity updates, and more.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memprediksi akan terjadi penurunan inflasi yang besar dalam beberapa bulan terakhir di tahun 2015. Saat ini, laju inflasi tahunan mencapai 6,83% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Kendati begitu, pada akhir tahun Bank Indonesia memperkirakan bahwa indeks harga konsumen akan menurun menjadi 3,6% (y/y), yang termasuk area bawah dari range target inflasi 2015 (3-5% y/y). Berita terbaru ini disampaikan oleh Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo ketika bertemu dengan Forum Koordinasi Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (FKSSK).

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Car sales in Indonesia continued to decline in September 2015. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), a total of 92,478 vehicles were sold in Southeast Asia's largest economy in September, down 9.8 percent from sales in the same month last year. Indonesian car sales have been slowing since the all-time sales peak in 2013 amid the country's easing economic growth pace (triggering weaker purchasing power).

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On 4 October 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic subjects such as the government and Bank Indonesia’s new economic policy package, an update of inflation and manufacturing activity, US interest rates the impact of El Nino on coffee and palm oil production, and much more.

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Pemerintah Indonesia mungkin akan memotong harga bahan bakar minyak di kuartal 4 tahun 2015 dalam rangka mendongkrak daya beli masyarakat dan mengurangi biaya yang ditanggung para pelaku manufaktur lokal. Tindakan ini akan menjadi bagian dari paket stimulus Pemerintah yang diprediksi akan diumumkan minggu depan. Pada tanggal 9 September dan tanggal 29 September, Pemerintah Indoensia telah mengumumkan dua paket kebijakan ekonominya. Kontras dengan dua paket kebijakan yang pertama, paket ketiga seharusnya memberikan hasil dalam jangka waktu pendek.

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Indonesia mengalami deflasi, dengan harga konsumen turun 0,05% (month-on-month), pada September 2015 karena menurunnya harga makanan dan transportasi. Contoh dari penurunan harga makanan termasuk harga daging ayam, telur, cabai, bawang dan minyak untuk memasak. Biaya transportasi yang lebih rendah terutama disebabkan karena menurunnya biaya transportasi udara yang berkontribusi kepada deflasi. Pada basis tahunan, inflasi Indonesia menurun 6,83% di bulan September, turun dari 7,18 pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan sebelumnya, dan di bawah perkiraan para analis pada 7,0 (y/y).

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Pada 27 September 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletternya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita yang paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami dalam tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik berkaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti paket kebijakan baru Bank Indonesia, pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), pengembangan geotermal, update saham & rupiah, inflasi September, dan banyak lagi.

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Bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) memperkirakan bahwa inflasi akan menurun di bawah 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di bulan September 2015 akibat harga bahan-bahan pangan yang rendah dan menurunnya harga-harga yang ditetapkan (termasuk bahan bakar dan listrik) setelah periode Ramadan dan Idul Fitri. Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo mengatakan bank sentral memprediksi inflasi mencapai sekitar 6,95% (y/y) di bulan September.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced two important matters on Thursday (14/08). Firstly, the institution decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the overnight deposit facility rate (Fasbi) at 5.75 percent, and the lending facility rate at 7.50 percent. Secondly, it announced that Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $9.1 billion, or, 4.27 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2014, a widening that is larger than initially forecast.

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Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first half of 2014 reached 5.17 percent (year-on-year), thus continuing the slowing growth trend that has been recorded by the country since 2011. Forecasts for GDP growth in the second half of 2014 indicate a slight improvement (to the range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent year-on-year) supported by strong household consumption, increased government spending and further growth of the trade and services sector. However, in recent quarters the official GDP figure has been lower than most forecasts.

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According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country’s trade balance in June 2014 recorded a deficit of USD $0.30 billion after the USD $0.05 billion surplus in the previous month. The performance of Indonesia’s trade balance was influenced by shrinkage of the country’s non-oil & gas surplus amid a lower oil & gas deficit compared to May 2014. Meanwhile, inflation was up 0.93 percent (month-to-month) in July 2014; a good performance amid the Ramadan and Idul Fitri festivities. Annual inflation eased to 4.53 percent (year-on-year).

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One day ahead of the official result of the Indonesian presidential election, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) showed a good performance as market participants seem to speculate not only on a Joko Widodo win, but also on a peaceful and orderly course of events (no large scale demonstrations or riots). On Sunday, president Yudhoyono received both presidential candidates at the State Palace for dinner. This may have helped to cool some of the tension between supporters of both sides.

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Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo expects the country’s July 2014 inflation pace to come in the range of 0.80 to 1.20 percent (month-to-month). This relatively high inflation figure is caused by seasonal factors: the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. Ahead and during these festivities, consumers tend to spend more, thus resulting in higher prices in the context of these Islamic celebrations. A recent Bank Indonesia survey showed that inflation already reached 0.80 percent in the first week of July.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the June 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the BI rate, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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Emerging currencies in Asia, led by the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate, strengthened in the past week on positive economic data from the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. Companies in the US added more jobs than expected in June 2014, while manufacturing in China grew at its fastest pace in 2014. Improving economies of the US and China are important for Asian countries as it boosts Asian exports. Moreover, Indonesian inflation and trade data contributed to positive market sentiments.

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Inflation in June 2014 increased by 0.43 percent (month-to-month, mtm) in accordance with the traditional pattern ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations. These occasions always trigger inflationary pressures as consumers increase spending. However, June inflation remains under control and is even lower than the historical average in June in recent years (0.56 percent mtm). On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation stood at 6.70 percent, thus continuing the downward trend since the beginning of 2014.

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Head of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) Suryamin announced on Tuesday (01/07) that the number of poor people in Indonesia declined slightly to 28.28 million people (or 11.25 percent of the total population) in March 2014, from 28.60 million (11.46 percent of the total population) in September 2013. However, compared to March last year, poverty has increased by 110,000 people due to high inflation and a slowing economy; economic growth slowed to 5.78 percent in 2013 and this decline continued to 5.21 percent in the first quarter of 2014.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate is appreciating sharply on Monday (30/06). By 15:13pm local Jakarta time, the currency of Indonesia had strengthened 1.31 percent to IDR 11,838 against the US dollar. Main factors that cause this performance are the weakening US dollar (as a slowdown in the US economic recovery evokes expectations that the Fed Rate will not be raised soon) and falling oil prices; the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate declined 30 cents to USD $105.44 in mid-morning trade while Brent crude fell 22 cents to USD $113.08.

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