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Berita Hari Ini Cement Consumption
Indonesian cement manufacturers remain optimistic that domestic cement consumption in Indonesia will rise more markedly in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year national cement sales rose 3.48 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 30.0 million tons.
Demand for cement in Indonesia is rising ahead of the year-end. Growing cement demand is attributed to the speeding up of construction of several national strategic infrastructure projects. Widodo Santoso, General Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said cement consumption in Indonesia rose 12.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.76 million tons in October 2017.
Cement consumption continued to improve in Indonesia in August 2017 on the back of rising demand from Java and the eastern region of Indonesia. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said Indonesia's cement consumption rose 9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.47 million tons in August 2017.
Over the past two years the cement oversupply in Indonesia has become increasingly excessive. Indonesia's total annual installed cement production capacity has now risen to 106.3 million tons, while domestic demand may not exceed 65 million tons in 2017. Moreover, production capacity will rise further this year as Semen Indonesia will open two new plants later this year.
Indonesian cement producers urge the government to protect the nation's existing cement manufacturers that have invested heavily in expanding production capacity in recent years but are plagued by the combination of weak domestic cement consumption and Indonesia's rising overall cement production capacity. Both factors are the reason behind the oversupply of cement in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Domestic cement consumption in Indonesia in full-year 2016 stood at 62 million tons, rather stagnant from cement demand in the preceding year and thus the 65 million tons cement sales target of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) in 2016 was not achieved. ASI Chairman Widodo Santoso confirmed that Indonesian cement consumption was not in line with his institution's prediction. Moreover, weak cement sales also indicate that government-led infrastructure development has not been running smoothly yet.
Cement consumption in Indonesia is expected to rise around 8 percent (y/y) to 68 million tons in 2017 from an estimated 63 million tons this year. This optimistic projection was expressed by Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesia Cement Association (ASI). Government-led infrastructure projects are believed to be the main pillar of support for next year's rising cement consumption in Southeast Asia's largest economy, particularly the one million houses program as well as other strategic projects.
Indonesian cement producers request the government not to issue new permits for the construction of cement plants in Indonesia. Such a moratorium should be put in place until at least 2019 as the nation's existing cement producers fear further falling profit due to the structural cement oversupply. Indonesia's total installed cement production capacity has now reached 92 million tons (per year), while domestic cement demand is expected to reach 65 million tons only in full-year 2016.
Six cement factories with a combined annual production capacity of 13.1 million tons will be ready to start operations in the second half of 2016. These six cement plants are owned by Semen Bosowa, Semen Tiga Roda, Conch Semen, Semen Indonesia (two plants) and Semen Manokwari. Widodo Santoso, Chairman of the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), said the development of the new plants will create an even larger cement oversupply in Indonesia. Annual national cement production capacity now stands at around 100 million tons, while demand is estimated at 63 million tons in 2016.
Indonesia's cement sales rose 6.2 percent (y/y) to 5.1 million tons in May 2016, the highest monthly figure so far in 2016. As the property sector of Indonesia remains subdued amid sluggish demand and development, growth in cement sales is regarded to be the result of infrastructure development. Data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) show that Indonesia's cement sales total 24.1 million tons in the first five months of 2016, up 3.9 percent (y/y) from sales in the same period one year earlier.
Artikel Terbaru Cement Consumption
Cement consumption in Indonesia grew 5.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 41.1 million tons in the January-August 2017 period (compared to the same period one year earlier). This can be labelled a rebound compared to bleak growth of 1.8 percent (y/y) and 1.6 percent (y/y) in 2015 and 2016, respectively. This year Indonesian cement demand could in fact reach 64 million tons.
Cement sales in Indonesia - a key indicator to measure the state of infrastructure and property development - declined 3.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.64 million tons in September 2016. This decline was attributed to fewer cement demand from the property sector (housing and apartments). Meanwhile, shares of state-controlled cement maker Semen Indonesia fell 2.91 percent on Tuesday (11/10) after Jakarta's Supreme Court revoked the environmental permit for the company's USD $320 million cement plant in Rembang (Central Java).
Indonesia's cement exports are targeted to reach 1.5 million tons in 2016, up 50 percent (y/y) from the realization of approximately 1 million tons in the preceding year. Up to the end of July 2016 Indonesian cement exports had already risen by 63 percent (y/y) this year. Although coming from a low base, rapidly increasing cement exports are highly welcome to offset the nation's rising cement oversupply. Due to the arrival of new cement producers and production expansion of existing cement players, while domestic cement consumption remains bleak, there occurred a big oversupply.
Data terakhir dari Asosiasi Semen Indonesia (ASI) menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi semen di Indonesia menurun 3,8% (year-on-year) menjadi 22,9 juta ton di lima bulan pertama tahun 2015 (dari 23,8 juta ton semen di periode yang sama tahun lalu). Kejatuhan ini adalah penurunan paling tajam dalam konsumsi semen Indonesia sejak 2009 waktu permintaan jatuh hampir 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) karena dampak dari krisis finansial dunia. Penurunan saat ini disebabkan oleh perlambatan perekonomian Indonesia dan jatuhnya harga-harga komoditi di luar Jawa.
The year 2015 may be a good one for Indonesian cement makers. The Indonesian government under the leadership of Joko Widodo is eager to invest heavily in the country’s infrastructure as this is one of the main bottlenecks that blocks higher economic growth. In the Revised 2015 State Budget the central government set aside IDR 290.3 trillion (USD $22.3 billion) for infrastructure development. Surely, the country's large cement producers - Semen Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Holcim Indonesia and Semen Baturaja - will benefit from this.
Indonesian cement sales have slowed and may not achieve the target set for 2014. In the first half of 2014, the country’s domestic cement sales totaled 28.9 million tons, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the same period last year, well below the growth target of 6 percent (year-on-year, yoy). However, this development is no surprise as economic growth of Indonesia has slowed in recent years. Cement sales, a key indicator of construction activity (infrastructure and property development) are closely linked to general GDP growth.
State-owned cement producer Semen Baturaja invites investors to its initial public offering (IPO) between 29 May and 7 June 2013 at the Ritz Carlton Pacific Place in Jakarta. Through this IPO, the company offers 2.34 billion shares (about 23.76 percent of its stock equity) to the public with an initial price target of IDR 500 - 685 per share (USD $0.05 - $0.07). Semen Baturaja will be listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) on 28 June 2013. The lead underwriters for this IPO are Bahana Securities, Danareksa Securities and Mandiri Securities.
Cement consumption in Indonesia increased 8.6 percent to 18.11 million tons in the first four months of 2013. Demand was particularly supported by property and housing projects in the bigger cities of Indonesia. Another pillar of support was found in the development of various infrastructure projects (including those within the framework of the government's ambitious MP3EI plan). The Indonesian Cement Association expects this year's cement consumption in Indonesia to rise to 61 million tons in total.
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