The pace of economic growth of Indonesia is expected to remain below five percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 according to Reuters poll involving 22 analysts. In fact, the poll shows that further slowing economic growth is expected. In the first quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s economic growth came at 4.71 percent (y/y), the weakest growth pace in six years. According to the poll, analysts see a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.61 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015.

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Although consumer confidence among Indonesian consumers remained relatively high, there has been a decline detected in 2015. Consumer optimism has fallen as Indonesia’s economy is growing at its slowest pace in six years due to worldwide low commodity prices (giving rise to Indonesia’s weak export performance), China's economic slowdown, uneven recoveries in the US and Europe, while spending of the Indonesian government remained weak (amid bureaucratic hurdles and difficult land acquisition for projects).

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Rupiah kembali menyentuh batasan psikologis Rp 13.400 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index, mata uang Indonesia telah melemah 0,22% menjadi Rp 13.405 per dollar AS pada pukul 11:22 WIB pada hari Kamis (23/07), sebuah level yang terakhir disentuh rupiah saat Indonesia masih kena dampak Krisis Finasial Asia pada tahun 1998. Melewati batasan psikologis ini bisa berarti bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan kembali mengintervensi untuk mendukung rupiah dalam rangka melindungi kepercayaan terhadap rupiah.

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Bank Pembangunan Asia (Asian Development Bank/ADB) mengumumkan telah mengurangi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 dan 2016 baik untuk Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) maupun negara-negara berkembang Asia lainnya karena perlambatan perekonomian yang berkelanjutan di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini. Ekspansi perekonomian RRT diproyeksikan untuk mencapai 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015 dan 6,8% (y/y) di 2016. Kedua proyeksi ini turun 0,2% poin dari proyeksi ADB sebelumnya.

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Seperti yang telah diprediksi, Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah tingkat suku bunganya pada pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) pada hari Selasa (14/07). BI rate yang menjadi acuan dipertahankan pada 7,50%, sementara fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) dan suku bunga lending facility dipertahankan masing-masing pada 5,50% dan 8,00%. Bank Indonesia meyakini bahwa kondisi tingkat suku bunga saat ini sejalan dengan upaya untuk menurunkan inflasi dan juga mendukung rupiah yang melemah menjelang perkiraan pengetatan moneter lebih lanjut oleh Amerika Serikat (AS) di kemudian hari pada tahun ini.

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Sejalan dengan perkiraan dan tren sejarah, penjualan mobil di Indonesia naik - dalam basis bulanan - di Juni 2015 menjelang perayaan Idul Fitri (yang menandai akhir bulan puasa umat Muslim). Penjualan mobil di Indonesia biasanya naik menjelang Idul Fitri, sebuah tradisi yang melibatkan perpindahan sementara jutaan orang Indonesia dari kota-kota ke daerah asal mereka. Sebelum perjalanan ke tempat asal, sebagian dari para pemudik ini membeli mobil baru, keputusan yang sering dipengaruhi oleh kampanye promosi dan program diskon.

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global di 2015 menjadi 3,3% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), dari 3,5% (y/y) sebelumnya, karena musim dingin yang keras mempengaruhi Amerika Serikat (AS) dan sejalan dengan itu menarik turun pertumbuhan global. Di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, perekonomian AS berkontraksi 0,2% (y/y). Terlebih lagi, kekacauan di Yunani dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok menyebabkan volatilitas yang besar dalam pasar keuangan global, lembaga yang bermarkas di Washington ini menyatakan dalam sebuah update World Economic Outlook (WEO) pada hari Kamis (09/07).

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The World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) as private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia, is estimated to weaken further in the second half of 2015 while government spending has been lower than expected (causing subdued fixed investment). Furthermore, persistent low commodity prices and tighter credit conditions provide further pressures that led to the extreme downward revision.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecast for Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5 percent (y/y). During a press conference on Tuesday (07/07) in Jakarta, Edimon Ginting, Deputy Country Director for Indonesia of the Philippines-based ADB, said that there are three reasons that explain why the ADB has become less optimistic about Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2015. Last year, Indonesia’s economic growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y).

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Pada 5 Juli 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletter-nya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirimkan kepada para pelanggan kami sekali seminggu, berisi berita-berita paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami dalam tujuh hari terakhir. Kebanyakan topik berkaitan dengan isu-isu ekonomi seperti update terbaru dari peraturan kewajiban penggunaan rupiah, inflasi Juni, target pertumbuhan ekonomi Pemerintah, kepercayaan konsumen, pasar properti, pembangunan infrastruktur, dan banyak lagi.

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We detected a very positive development over the past two months. The number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Indonesia continued to decline heavily, a trend that began at the very start of February 2021. While on 1 February 2021, a total of 10,994 new COVID-19 infections were found, this number has almost halved as we enter April 2021 (see the chart below).

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The other day, I had a conversation with my neighbors – a married couple who run a bakery and café in the city center of Yogyakarta. From previous conversations I knew that their business is heavily affected by the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Even up to the point that they had to find a cheaper school for their oldest daughter.

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It was a rough first month of the year for Indonesia. Obviously, the COVID-19 crisis persists (and there are signs to assume this crisis will persist throughout 2021) with the total number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Indonesia now having passed the one million mark.

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It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.

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Across the world, concern over the COVID-19 pandemic grew in September 2020 as the number of new COVID-19 cases continued to rise rapidly. Worldwide, at the end of September 2020, some 34 million people have been infected with the virus, while more than one million people have died after contracting the virus.

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On 05 August 2020, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2020. These data, which were highly anticipated among analysts and policymakers, are crucial to comprehend how – and to what extend – the self-imposed social and business restrictions (made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic) have impacted on the Indonesian economy.

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Good news at the start of July 2020. The World Bank upgraded Indonesia’s economic status to an ‘upper-middle income country’ (from ‘lower-middle income country’) per 1 July 2020. The key consideration for the World Bank was that Indonesia’s gross national income (GNI) per capita increased from USD $3,840 in 2018 to USD $4,050 in 2019. This means that an upgrade was needed (see the table below).

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It is becoming clearer by the day that economic growth in Indonesia, in 2020, will be derailed enormously. Analysts and authoritative institutions (both international and domestic ones) have, again, cut their forecasts for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q2-2020 (decisions that obviously also have consequences for Indonesia’s full-year 2020 economic growth outlooks).

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The most recent published outlooks for global economic growth and global trade are more pessimistic than their earlier versions, with the main reason being that there is no quick solution to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. On the contrary, there is a high degree of uncertainty about when business can resume as usual. And, the closer we get to 2021, the less rosy outlooks are becoming for next year.

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The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a wide range of economic and social consequences. For example, the Indonesian economy is likely to contract this year (for the first time since 1998), while millions of Indonesians have lost their jobs over the past three months, and the majority of the country’s enterprises have seen their sales plunge.

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