On 17 January 2016, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website over the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the trade balance, property sector, the benchmark interest rate, the ASEAN Economic community, but also the recent terrorist attacks in Jakarta, and more.

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Although global media focus on the vicious terrorist attacks that occurred today in Jakarta, the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) made a surprise move by cutting its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent at the January policy meeting. It is a surprise as Bank Indonesia emphasized repeatedly that it is primarily focused on rupiah stability while - amid severe market volatility (due to economic turmoil in China) - the rupiah remains under pressure.

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Asian stocks are again in deep red territory on Thursday (14/01), led by Chinese shares (which are on track to enter a bear market) as well as Japanese shares. It means that the rebound that had occurred earlier this week - caused by positive export data from China - was short-lived. The continued slide of oil prices (below USD $30 per barrel) and turmoil in China cause money to flow away from equity and fragile emerging market currencies.

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On Wednesday (13/01) Indonesia's central bank is set to start its monthly policy meeting. A novelty this year is that the monthly policy meetings of Bank Indonesia will take two days instead of one. Another interesting novelty is that Bank Indonesia invited Indonesia's Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution to attend the central bank's first policy meeting of 2016. Analyst opinions about whether Bank Indonesia has room to cut its relatively tight monetary policy are mixed.

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Angka inflasi Indonesia pada bulan Desember 2015 lebih tinggi dari yang diharapkan pada 0,96% pada basis month-to-month (m/m). Tingkat inflasi bulanan yang tinggi dikarenakan kenaikan harga makanan dan transportasi selama perayaan Natal dan Tahun Baru. Namun demikian, tingkat inflasi tahunan Indonesia jatuh ke level terendah sejak 2010 karena hilangnya dampak kenaikan harga bahan bakar bersubsidi pada bulan November 2014 dari angka inflasi tahunan, maka realisasi inflasi jatuh jauh di bawah target pemerintah (5%) dan kisaran target bank sentral (3-5%) pada tahun 2015.

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Tahun lalu Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) turun 12,13% sehingga berakhir pada 4,593.01 poin pada 30 Desember 2015 di tengah ketidakpastian global yang parah akibat ancaman pengetatan kebijakan moneter di Amerika Serikat (AS) dan perlambatan ekonomi yang besar dari Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT). Hari ini, Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) akan memasuki hari perdagangan pertamanya di tahun baru. Apa yang kita harapkan dari kinerja saham Indonesia di Januari 2016?

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Pada tanggal 20 Desember 2015, Indonesia Investments menerbitkan edisi terbaru dari newsletternya. Newsletter gratis ini, yang dikirim ke pelanggan kami sekali per minggu, berisi berita-berita yang paling penting dari Indonesia yang telah dilaporkan di website kami selama tujuh hari terakhir. Sebagian besar topik membahas isu-isu ekonomi seperti update performa saham dan rupiah Indonesia, tingkat suku bunga di Indonesia, neraca perdagangan, campuran energi negara ini, update dari kinerja perusahaan-perusahaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia, dan banyak lagi.

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Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa realisasi pertumbuhan kredit akan mencapai 9-10% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015, di bawah targetnya pada 11%-13% (y/y). Sampai dengan Oktober 2015 pertumbuhan kredit bank-bank di Indonesia mencapai 10,4%, melambat dari 11,1% di bulan sebelumnya. Juda Agung, Direktur Eksekutif Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter Bank Indonesia (BI), mengatakan pertumbuhan kredit yang melambat sejalan dengan perlambatan ekonomi.

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Bank Indonesia, bank sentral dari negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di Asia Tenggara, mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya (BI rate) pada 7,50% pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember pada hari Kamis (17/12). Sementara itu, fasilitas simpanan Bank Indonesia (Fasbi) tidak berubah pada 5,50% dan fasilitas pinjaman di 8,00%. Ini adalah bulan kesepuluh berturut-turut Bank Indonesia tidak mengubah suku bunganya (pada bulan Februari 2015 bank sentral memangkas BI rate sebesar 0,25%).

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia to 4.8 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015 and to 5.3 percent (y/y) in 2016 from previously 4.9 percent (y/y) and 5.4 percent (y/y), respectively. In its latest report on Indonesia, the ADB cited that problems related to budget disbursement and the nation’s weak export performance were the main factors to cut its growth projection for Indonesia - for both 2015 and 2016 - by 0.1 percentage point. In September 2015, the ADB had already cut its growth forecast for Indonesia on the back of negative effects of China’s economic slowdown.

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Sektor properti residensial di Indonesia tetap menarik di 2015 kendati ada beberapa faktor yang menghambat pertumbuhan selama dua tahun terakhir. Dalam kolom ini saya membahas faktor-faktor yang telah melambatkan pertumbuhan di sektor properti Indonesia dan bagaimana pihak berwenang (seperti bank sentral dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan) merespon tantangan-tantangan ini melalui peraturan baru. Terakhir, saya menyediakan sebuah update mengenai rencana Pemerintah, yang baru saja diumumkan, untuk mengizinkan kepemilikan asing atas apartemen mewah.

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Both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to slide on Thursday (04/06) and seem to be caught in a vicious downward spiral brought about by both domestic and international factors. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.68 percent to close at a five-week low of 5,095.82 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,281 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), a level last seen in the late 1990s when the country was plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Although most emerging market stocks fell, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah showed a solid performance on Thursday (21/05). The rupiah appreciated 0.40 percent to IDR 13,122 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.39 percent to 5,313.21 points. Most emerging stocks fell due to weak data from China (despite a series of stimulus). However, Indonesian stocks were supported by news about its credit rating and dividend announcements.

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Para investor jelas sedang menunggu hasil-hasil dari Pertemuan Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia yang diadakan pada hari ini (19/05). Dalam pertemuan kebijakan ini, bank sentral Indonesia akan memutuskan pendekatan moneternya. Bagi banyak pelaku pasar, merupakan hal yang penting dan krusial untuk mempelajari apakah Bank Indonesia akan menyesuaikan kebijakan suku bunganya dalam rangka mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia (yang telah mencapai kecepatan terlambat dalam lima tahun terakhir di kuartal 1 tahun 2015).

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Bank Indonesia announced today that the country’s total foreign debt rose 7.6 percent (y/y) to USD $298.1 billion in the first quarter of 2015. This figure means that the pace of the country’s foreign debt growth has slowed from the 10.2 percentage point growth (y/y) that was recorded in the preceding quarter. Both public and private sector foreign debt growth slowed as both sectors are more careful to take up loans amid a weakening rupiah while export revenues decline amid sluggish global (and domestic) economic growth.

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Menjelang penerbitan angka pertumbuhan resmi proyek domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia di kuartal 1 (dijadwalkan untuk diterbitkan di minggu pertama), saham-saham Indonesia dan rupiah melemah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) akibat lemahnya sentimen pasar yang telah membebani pasar selama seminggu terakhir. Terlebih lagi, pendapatan perusahaan blue chip di kuartal 1 yang dilaporkan lebih rendah dari dugaan membuat para pelaku pasar kuatir bahwa perlambatan perekonomian telah berlanjut di kuartal 1 tahun 2015.

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Within a couple of days Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is scheduled to release Indonesia’s GDP growth figure for the first quarter of 2015. Despite economic growth forecasts for full-year 2015 - both of the Indonesian government and international institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) - signalling a rebound from the five-year low of 5.02 percent (y/y) in 2014, various analysts expect to see further slowing economic growth in Q1-2015.

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Over the past week, the Indonesian rupiah continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,850 per US dollar on Friday (17/04). Only a month ago, investors and policymakers were alarmed when the rupiah touched IDR 13,245 per US dollar, a 17-year low. This column discusses the factors that caused the strengthening of the rupiah in recent weeks. However, amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA, this development should be short-term only.

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Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent, the deposit facility rate at 5.50 percent and lending facility rate at 8.00 percent. This interest rate environment is considered to be in line with the central bank’s ongoing efforts to push the country’s inflation figure within its target of 4±1 percent for 2015 and 2016, as well as to control the country’s current account deficit towards a healthier level at 2.5-3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term.

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Menurut data terakhir dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia mencatat inflasi bulanan sebesar 0,17% pada bulan Maret 2015. Ini adalah bulan pertama tahun ini Indonesia mencatat inflasi bulanan. Pada bulan Januari dan Februari, Indonesia mengalami deflasi masing-masing 0,24% dan 0,36% pada basis month-to-month (m/m). Inflasi Maret terutama disebabkan karena penyesuaian harga yang diatur: harga yang lebih tinggi dari bensin (oktan rendah), diesel, dan tabung gas elpiji 12 kg. Penyesuaian-penyesuaian ini dibutuhkan karena kenaikan harga minyak dan pelemahan rupiah.

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