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Berita Hari Ini Car Industry
Chinese car manufacturers seem not afraid to compete with their Japanese counterparts on Indonesian soil. After Wuling Motors arrived in Indonesia in mid-2017, now another Chinese car-maker, Sokonindo Automobile, has started operations in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest car market.
Based on the latest data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo), automotive sales in Indonesia rose 2.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 94,461 vehicles in October 2017 on the back of rising demand for commercial vehicles. Growing demand is boosted by recovering coal and crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
Indonesian exports of completely built up (CBU) car units surged in the first quarter of 2017, a development that may indicate that global economic growth is improving (specifically in the export destination nations). Based on data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) Indonesia exported 56,371 units in Q1-2017, up 53.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) from 36,750 units in the same period one year earlier.
The declining trend of city car sales continues in Indonesia. In the first two months of 2017 sales of city cars fell 41.8 percent to 2,511 units on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. This is not a new phenomenon. Ever since the low cost green car (LCGC) was introduced to the Indonesian market in late-2013, city car sales have been on the decline. In full-year 2016 city car sales had fallen 38.4 percent (y/y). A city car is a small car designed to be used primarily in (con)urban areas.
Indonesia remains the biggest market for cars in the ASEAN region. Based on the latest data from the ASEAN Automotive Federation a total of 3.16 million cars were sold in the ASEAN region in 2016. Around 33 percent of these total sales occurred in Indonesia, the largest economy among ASEAN countries. In 2016 a total of 1.06 million vehicles were sold in Indonesia. On second place came Thailand with 768,788 sold cars. However, in terms of car production, Thailand remains on pole position in the ASEAN region.
In February 2017 domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 9.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 96,722 vehicles (from 88,208 sold vehicles in the same month one year ago), supported by the popularity of the Astra Toyota Calya and Astra Daihatsu Sigra (both are low-cost green cars) as well as strengthening purchasing power in the regions outside Java due to rising commodity prices. Also in the first month of 2017 Indonesian car sales grew on an annual basis, implying there rises optimism about Indonesia's automotive sector after having experienced two bleak years.
The utilization of Indonesia's installed car production capacity is expected to fall from 58 percent in 2016 to 55 percent in 2017 as the expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity is not in line with growth of domestic car sales and car exports. Indonesia's car production capacity rose 14 percent (y/y) to 2.2 million units in 2017 due to the start of operations at two factories (owned by Mitsubishi and Wuling). However, the actual car production figure of Indonesia is estimated to reach 1.2 million units only in 2017 (up 9 percent from 1.1 million units in the preceding year).
Passenger car sales in Indonesia are estimated to rise 11.5 percent per year in the 2017-2021 period supported by Indonesia's expanding middle class. This conclusion originates from research that was conducted by London-based BMI Research. Meanwhile, business consulting firm Frost and Sullivan sees Indonesian car sales rise 5 percent (y/y) to 1.11 million vehicles in 2017 supported by the popular low cost green cars and multipurpose vehicles.
Indonesia's car sales rose 3.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 974,972 vehicles in the first 11 months of 2016, improving from 940,027 sold vehicles in the same period one year ago. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), said this year's rising car sales in Indonesia are primarily supported by the launch of various new vehicles. He added Gaikindo's 2016 car sales target of 1.05 million could still be achieved, provided December's car sales will be more than 75,000 units.
Car sales in Indonesia rose 4 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 91,846 units in October 2016 compared to 88,408 vehicles in the same month one year earlier. Growth is attributed to the stabilizing economy of Indonesia and the launch of several new car models (that managed to entice consumers). New data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) show that Indonesia's car sales totaled 874,703 units in the first ten months of 2016, up 2.5 percent (y/y) from 853,089 cars in the same period one year ago.
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Amid Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as well as looming higher prices of subsidized fuels (which will cause accelerated inflation and declining purchasing power), domestic car sales in Indonesia have fallen 6.3 percent to 104,916 units in October 2014 from the same month last year according to preliminary data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). Cumulatively, car sales reached 1.04 million units in the first ten months of 2014, a slight 1.6 percentage point increase from the same period last year.
After Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have confirmed that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) will be raised in November 2014 in an attempt to ease the country’s wide current account deficit and government budget deficit (which are primarily caused by costly oil imports), domestic car manufacturers and dealers are expected to post declining earnings in 2015. Besides the subsidized fuel price issue, Indonesia’s car industry is also negatively impacted by the country’s slowing economic growth.
Car sales in Indonesia declined 8 percent to 98,198 units in May 2014 from 106,811 units in the previous month. The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) said that the decline was the direct consequence of several public holidays (International Labour Day and the commemorations of Buddha’s birthday as well as ascensions of Prophet Muhammad and Jesus Christ). These holidays caused a lower car production rate and a reduced number of car deliveries to wholesale dealers.
Despite higher car prices due to the depreciating rupiah exchange rate, domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 11 percent to 107,496 in January 2014 compared to the same month last year. January sales were particularly supported by sales of the low cost green car (LCGC) and low multipurpose vehicle (LMPV). Both these car types enjoy high popularity in Indonesia. In 2013, the Indonesian government provided tax incentives for the establishment of a domestic LCGC industry.
Indonesia's automotive industry experienced some drastic changes in recent years. Originally regarded as a mere production hub due to cheap productions costs (particularly wages), it changed into a major car sales market as per capita GDP continues to grow and gives rise to an expanding middle class. Since 2011, domestic car sales in Indonesia have reached record highs and given that the country's per capita car ownership is still relatively low, there is room for more growth. But Indonesia is also eager to become an important car exporting country.
In 2014, Indonesia is expected to see capital inflow of between USD $1 billion and USD $1.5 billion of funds for investments in the country's car components industry. About 20 to 30 companies are eager to expand or start business in this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy (each investing about USD $50 million). Indonesia's car industry is attractive due to record high car sales in recent years (triggered by strong domestic GDP per capita growth) as well as double-digit export growth (although coming from a low base).
Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.
Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.
In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.
Indonesian car sales in the first four months of 2013 continued its robust growth. Preliminary data from Agen Pemegang Merek (Brand Holder Agent or APM) indicates that from January to April of 2013 397,991 car units were sold in Indonesia, which constitutes a 17.75 percent increase compared to the first four months of 2012. Toyota retained its position as market leader with a market share of 35.9 percent. However, sales of Honda and Suzuki vehicles are growing fast in Indonesia.
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