Car sales in Indonesia grew 2.4 percent to around 783,000 vehicles in the first nine months of 2016 from 764,000 units sold in the same period one year earlier. Improving car sales this year are attributed to the launch of new low cost green car (LCGC) models - including the Toyota Calya and Daihatsu Sigra - at the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show 2016, held between 11-21 August 2016 near Jakarta. Demand for both models, distributed by the Astra Group, is high, reflected by the two-month waiting list.

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Indonesia’s exports of cars and components reached a value of USD $552.6 million in August 2016, up 50.3 percent (m/m) from USD $368.3 million in the preceding month when many countries celebrated Idul Fitri (marking the end of the holy Ramadan month). According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia exported a total of USD $3.72 billion worth of cars and components in the first eight months of 2016, up 1.5 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), said rising car exports from Indonesia continue the positive performance that was recorded last year.

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Several stakeholders in Indonesia's automotive industry requested the government to be more selective in terms of issuing investment licenses to foreign investors because they believe the large foreign presence in Indonesia's automotive sector curbs opportunities for domestic players. This specifically applies to car components and spare parts. Most of the world's leading car brands - led by Japanese car manufacturers - have production facilities in Indonesia. For car components they prefer imports from the mother country.

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Car sales in Indonesia grew 11.4 percent (y/y) to 91,471 units in June 2016. Henry Tanoto, Vice President Director of Toyota Astra Motor (TAM), said the increase in car sales is supported by people's eagerness to purchase a car ahead of the Idul Fitri holiday (4 - 8 July 2016). A portion of the population buys a (new) car before going on "mudik" (a term that refers to the traditional journey made by city dwellers back to their places of origin to spend a couple of days with their families during the Idul Fitri holiday, the holiday that marks the end of the Islamic fasting month).

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia (wholesales; from factories to dealers) surged 11 percent (y/y) to 87,919 vehicles in May 2016, the second straight month of rising car sales (on a year-on-year basis). However, Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), reminded stakeholders not to become too enthusiastic as the rise in Indonesia's May car sales was caused by technical factors, rather than fundamental ones. Last month, the nation's car manufacturers began to deliver new models to dealers ahead of the Idul Fitri holiday.

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Last year Indonesian President Joko Widodo emphasized the importance for Indonesia to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as this free trade deal - one of the world's most ambitious trade deals, covering an area that contributes about 40 percent to total global trade - will make the Indonesian economy more efficient and its exports more competitive (while also expanding the nation's export base). However, there also exist concerns about a possible participation of Indonesia in this free trade deal. One of the concerns involves Indonesia's automotive industry.

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Car sales in Indonesia grew 4.6 percent (y/y) to 84,703 vehicles in April 2016 from 81,000 vehicles in the same month last year. This is a remarkable result as monthly car sales growth (on a year-on-year basis) had been declining for 16 straight months previously. Stakeholders in the automotive industry hope that this is the start of a rebound, in line with accelerating economic growth. In the first quarter of 2016 Indonesia's economic growth accelerated to a growth pace of 4.92 percent (y/y), higher than the 4.73 percent GDP growth pace in the same quarter last year.

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The selling price of Indonesia's low cost green car (LCGC) has become more and more expensive. Initially, this type of car was launched on the Indonesian market in order to offer the people an affordable and relatively environment friendly car. However, rising selling prices of the LCGC and weaker purchasing power amid Indonesia's slowing economic growth trend that occurred since 2011 has made it harder for Indonesia's middle class to purchase a LCGC.

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Domestic car sales in Indonesia are expected to rebound in the second half of 2016 in line with Indonesia's improving macro-economy. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), is optimistic that the small drop in Indonesia's February car sales is a sign that the sales decline is stabilizing. In February 2016 a total of 88,250 cars were sold in Indonesia, down 0.6 percent (y/y) from car sales in the same month one year earlier. Fitch Ratings also expects Indonesian car sales to rebound this year.

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An improvement has been detected in Indonesia's car sales. According to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) car sales in Indonesia totaled 88,250 units in February 2016. Although this figure is 0.6 percent down from sales in the same month one year earlier, the percentage fall is the slowest since August 2014. Noegardjito, Secretary of Gaikindo, said this limited decline came on the back of Indonesia's improving economy. However, February was still the 18th consecutive month of contracting car sales in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Amid Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as well as looming higher prices of subsidized fuels (which will cause accelerated inflation and declining purchasing power), domestic car sales in Indonesia have fallen 6.3 percent to 104,916 units in October 2014 from the same month last year according to preliminary data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo). Cumulatively, car sales reached 1.04 million units in the first ten months of 2014, a slight 1.6 percentage point increase from the same period last year.

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After Indonesian President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have confirmed that prices of subsidized fuels (gasoline and diesel) will be raised in November 2014 in an attempt to ease the country’s wide current account deficit and government budget deficit (which are primarily caused by costly oil imports), domestic car manufacturers and dealers are expected to post declining earnings in 2015. Besides the subsidized fuel price issue, Indonesia’s car industry is also negatively impacted by the country’s slowing economic growth.

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Car sales in Indonesia declined 8 percent to 98,198 units in May 2014 from 106,811 units in the previous month. The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) said that the decline was the direct consequence of several public holidays (International Labour Day and the commemorations of Buddha’s birthday as well as ascensions of Prophet Muhammad and Jesus Christ). These holidays caused a lower car production rate and a reduced number of car deliveries to wholesale dealers.

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Despite higher car prices due to the depreciating rupiah exchange rate, domestic car sales in Indonesia rose 11 percent to 107,496 in January 2014 compared to the same month last year. January sales were particularly supported by sales of the low cost green car (LCGC) and low multipurpose vehicle (LMPV). Both these car types enjoy high popularity in Indonesia. In 2013, the Indonesian government provided tax incentives for the establishment of a domestic LCGC industry.

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Indonesia's automotive industry experienced some drastic changes in recent years. Originally regarded as a mere production hub due to cheap productions costs (particularly wages), it changed into a major car sales market as per capita GDP continues to grow and gives rise to an expanding middle class. Since 2011, domestic car sales in Indonesia have reached record highs and given that the country's per capita car ownership is still relatively low, there is room for more growth. But Indonesia is also eager to become an important car exporting country.

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In 2014, Indonesia is expected to see capital inflow of between USD $1 billion and USD $1.5 billion of funds for investments in the country's car components industry. About 20 to 30 companies are eager to expand or start business in this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy (each investing about USD $50 million). Indonesia's car industry is attractive due to record high car sales in recent years (triggered by strong domestic GDP per capita growth) as well as double-digit export growth (although coming from a low base).

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Indonesian car sales have already exceeded the one million mark in October 2013. In the January-October period, 1,018,786 car units were sold, a ten percent increase compared to car sales in the same period last year. Growing demand for cars in Indonesia indicates that this sector of Southeast Asia's largest economy is not influenced by current negative market sentiments, such as the sharply depreciated Indonesian rupiah exchange rate (against the US dollar), high inflation (8.32 percent yoy in October 2013), and slowing economic growth.

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Car sales in Indonesia are expected to exceed the target set by the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) in 2013. The institution originally set a target of 1.1 million sold car vehicles in 2013, which is similar to the sales result in 2012. However, in September 2013 car sales recorded a new monthly record (115,921 sold units) after consumers sped up car sales as prices will increase in October. Up to the third quarter of 2013, total car sales have increased 11.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

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In recent years, Indonesia's car sales have shown robust growth, culminating in a record high number of 1.12 million sold car units in 2012. This is an important statistic because car sales inform us about the state of the economy. Generally, rising car sales indicate an expanding economy while declining car sales indicate that the economy is slowing down. When we take a look at the table below, there is a link visible between Indonesia's GDP growth and rising car sales, except for 2011 to 2012 when GDP growth declined while car sales rose.

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Indonesian car sales in the first four months of 2013 continued its robust growth. Preliminary data from Agen Pemegang Merek (Brand Holder Agent or APM) indicates that from January to April of 2013 397,991 car units were sold in Indonesia, which constitutes a 17.75 percent increase compared to the first four months of 2012. Toyota retained its position as market leader with a market share of 35.9 percent. However, sales of Honda and Suzuki vehicles are growing fast in Indonesia.

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