Setelah kecewa melihat pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) yang hanya 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, para investor merasa kuatir dengan pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia pada sisa tahun ini. Pertumbuhan PDB yang lemah disebabkan oleh lemahnya performa ekspor (akibat lambatnya perekonomian global dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditi), tingkat suku bunga Indonesia yang tinggi (mengurangi daya beli masyarakat dan expansi bisnis oleh perusahaan lokal), dan lambatnya belanja pemerintah.

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Di edisi terbaru dari Update Perekonomian Asia Pasifik Timur, dirilis pada hari Senin (13 April 2015), Bank Dunia menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk negara-negara berkembang di Asia Timur & Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) menjadi 6,7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015 dan 2016 dari asumsi awalnya yaitu pertumbuhan 6,9% (y/y) di 2015 dan 6,8% (y/y) di 2016. Alasan utama untuk menurunnya revisi adalah karena ketidakjelasan konteks perekonomian global, yang mencakup dampak dari ancaman kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS) dan kenaikan nilai tukar dollar AS.

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Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s remains the only credit rating agency among the big three to maintain its BB+/stable rating on Indonesia’s sovereign credit (which is one notch below investment grade). Both Fitch Ratings (BBB-/stable) and Moody’s Investor Service (Baa3/stable) had already brought Indonesia back to investment grade in 2011 and 2012. Standard & Poor’s has been reluctant to raise Indonesia’s status as it wants to see more results from the country’s economic policy reforms.

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Pendapatan perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) secara umum menurun pada 2014. Ini menjadi bukti bahwa industri batubara, yang merupakan bisnis yang menguntungkan pada tahun 2000an (hingga 2011), masih mengalami perlambatan karena masalah-masalah ekonomi global. Ekonomi global yang bergerak lambat menyebabkan permintaan yang rendah bagi komoditi-komoditi seperti batubara dan minyak sawit mentah (dua penghasil devisa penting di Indonesia). Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) khususnya mengkhawatirkan.

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Benedict Bingham, Senior Resident Representative untuk Indonesia di International Monetary Fund (IMF), memperkirakan bahwa bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan terus berkomitmen pada kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat dalam upaya untuk menjaga fundamental fiskal nasional di tengah tekanan eksternal. Terlepas dari pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lamban, kenaikan suku bunga di AS (tahun ini) diperkirakan mempengaruhi Indonesia karena akan mendorong aliran keluar modal dari pasar-pasar berkembang.

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The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) believes that it is difficult for Indonesia to achieve the government’s target of collecting USD $36 billion by 2019 through crude palm oil (CPO) exports as several government policies disturb the performance of CPO exports. Moreover, global commodity prices (including palm oil) are still showing a downward trend - hence limiting foreign exchange earnings - as global economic growth remains sluggish. Economic growth of China, a major CPO importer, is expected to slow further this year.

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The Indonesian government, central bank (Bank Indonesia) and Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) agreed to revise several macroeconomic targets in the Revised 2015 State Budget (APBN-P 2015). The revisions include the country’s economic growth (GDP) pace, the average rupiah exchange rate, and inflation target. In essence, the revisions indicate that Indonesian authorities have become less optimistic about the Indonesian economy in 2015 amid external pressures.

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Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) Agus Martowardojo said that there are two main global challenges that are being faced by Southeast Asia’s largest economy and which can impact negatively on the nation’s economy. These challenges are the low global oil prices (which have fallen below USD $50 per barrel) and the monetary policy normalization of the US Federal Reserve amid the structural economic recovery of the USA. This policy involves higher US interest rates (expected in the second half of 2015) and a bullish US dollar.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.75 percent at its Board of Governors’ Meeting on Thursday (15/01). The country’s Lending Facility and Deposit Facility were maintained at 8.00 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. According to the bank this interest rate environment is sufficient to push inflation, which has accelerated to 8.36 percent year-on-year (y/y) in December due to fuel subsidy reforms, back towards its target of 3 to 5 percent (y/y) in 2015.

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As we have explained before, a significant amount of market participants will engage in profit taking after a day (or in this case a number of days) of gain. Mixed sentiments originating from the Asian continent, particularly Japan and China, as well as the depreciating Indonesian rupiah exchange rate contributed to the slight gain of Indonesia's benchmark index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG). The IHSG rose 0.02 percent to 4,556.19 points on Tuesday (18/02).

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The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, also known as IHSG) continued its upward rally on Monday (17/02) even though it had concerned us that the index almost touched its 'overbought' level. Especially as the index posted limited gain by the end of last week, it made us unsure about its performance on Monday. And while there are several factors that caused positive market sentiments, we still warn for potential weakening of the index due to profit taking. On Monday (17/02), the IHSG rose 1.05% to 4,555.37 points.

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The weakening Dow Jones Index on Wednesday (12/02) caused negative market sentiments in Asia the following day. Most Asian indices, including Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), were down. Not even the announcement that Bank Indonesia decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent was able to push the IHSG back in the green zone. Investors probably already anticipated the central bank's decision as it was in line with the market's expectation.

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At Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors’ Meeting today (13/02), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent as well as the interest rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. The policy is consistent with the tight monetary policy stance currently adopted in order to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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Positive market sentiments stemming from Wall Street pushed Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) further up on Wednesday (12/02). Even though technical indicators (such as the bollinger band) suggest that the majority of Indonesian stocks are close to the overbought area, it did not prevent investors from stock trading. The appreciating rupiah exchange rate, rising Asian indices and positive openings in Europe all contributed to the IHSG's 0.58 percent gain to 4,496.29 points.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index/JCI) rebounded on Tuesday (11/02) after being impacted by rising Asian stock indices that followed Wall Street's positive ending on Monday (10/02) as well as higher prices of several commodities. Moreover, JP Morgan Chase & Co released a positive assessment of China's banks and stock market. Lastly, Standard & Poor’s put Indonesia's banks on a stable outlook. Combined, these factors made the IHSG rise 0.44 percent to 4,470.19 points.

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After experiencing 3 consecutive days of growth, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) weakened on the first trading day of the week after market participants engaged in profit taking. As such, and contrary to its usual performance, the index did not follow rising global indices on Friday (07/02). The IHSG fell 0.36 percent to the level of 4,450.75 points on Monday (10/02). Domestic investors recorded a net sell, while foreign investors recorded a net buy of IDR 842 billion.

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On Wednesday (05/02), several factors caused a rebound of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index/IHSG). The IHSG climbed 0.74 percent to 4,384.31 points, thus closing the gap on 4,367-4,377. These factors were strengthening indices on Wall Street after US factory orders did not decline as much as was anticipated by the market, as well as today's release of Indonesia's 5.78 percent GDP growth figure (which was slightly higher than forecasted) and which led to an appreciating rupiah exchange rate.

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An analysis of today's (04/02) performance of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHSG) is more or less the same as yesterday's analysis. The IHSG declined 0.78 percent to 4,352.26 points as market participants engaged in profit taking amid concern about weakening stock indices in the USA and Europe after seeing the US Manufacturing PMI fall to 53.7 in January 2014, while the index of US national factory activity fell to 51.3, its lowest level since May 2013.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was again affected by profit taking after market participants saw falling indices on Wall Street and in Europe at the end of last week due to various negative sentiments including the Federal Reserve's tapering issue, slowing Chinese manufacturing and the release of several global companies' financial reports that were below expectation. Moreover, the rupiah exchange rate continued to depreciate while Asian indices were down on Monday (03/02).

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