Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat (AS) akhirnya memutuskan untuk menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin pada pertemuan kebijakan di bulan Desember (15-16 Desember) karena perbaikan yang signifikan pada kondisi pasar tenaga kerja AS (tingkat pengangguran di AS telah jatuh menjadi 5%) dan inflasi AS diproyeksikan untuk mencapai target the Fed sebesar 2% pada jangka waktu menengah. Setelah pengumuman ini saham AS melonjak. Pasar negara-negara berkembang tidak mengalami capital outflows besar-besaran setelah kenaikan ini. Indeks-indeks saham di Asia menguat tajam pada hari Kamis pagi (17/12).

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Bursa saham di Asia mengalami cuaca buruk karena para investor menarik dana dari pasar negara-negara berkembang. Pada pukul 11:25 WIB, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia telah jatuh 1,11% menjadi 4.344,69 poin, sementara rupiah telah melemah 0,54% menjadi Rp 14.068 per dollar Amerika Serikat (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para investor mencari aset yang (lebih) aman haven karena Federal Reserve diperkirakan akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate (untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir satu dekade) pada pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) berikutnya (dijadwalkan pada 15-16 Desember).

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On the last trading day of the week, Indonesian stocks plunged 1.63 percent to 4,393.52 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,984 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Most Asian indices were weaker as investors are bracing for - most likely - the first Fed Fund Rate hike in nearly a decade. On 15-16 December the US Federal Reserve will hold a crucial policy meeting. Tighter monetary policy in the USA leads to capital outflows from Indonesia as the country is regarded particularly vulnerable to such a move.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again flirting with the IDR 13,900 per US dollar level after the central bank announced on Monday (07/12) that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell further in November. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated by 0.19 percent to IDR 13,887 per US dollar at 15:30 pm local Jakarta time on Tuesday (08/12). Other factors that put pressure on the rupiah are the low oil price (giving rise to a strong US dollar), weak trade data from China, and the looming US interest rate hike.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened on Monday morning (30/11). Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 0.84 percent to 4,522.09 points, while the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.21 percent to IDR 13,830 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 11:15 am local Jakarta time. Negative sentiments still stem from China and the looming Fed Fund Rate hike in December, while there are few to none domestic sentiments that can support the nation's assets.

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Due to heightened expectation of a US interest rate hike in December, the US dollar was pushed to a seven-month high today. As a consequence, the rupiah depreciated 0.73 percent to IDR 13,722 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Moreover, the strong US dollar impacted negatively on commodity prices. Many commodity prices, including oil, copper and nickel plunged severely on today's trading day. For key commodity producers, which include Indonesia, falling commodity prices put pressure on assets.

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Aset-aset Indonesia ditutup dengan kuat pada hari Jumat (20/11). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah sama-sama menguat secara signifikan karena meningkatnya kejelasan mengenai kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat (AS), sementara Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) mengumumkan bahwa Pemerintah RRT akan mengimplementasikan lebih banyak usaha untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, karenanya menguatkan nilai tukar yuan (mendukung penguatan nilai mata uang di negara-negara berkembang di Asia). IHSG naik 0,94% menjadi 4.561,33 poin, sementara rupiah menguat 1,10% menjadi Rp 13.623 per dollar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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Di seluruh dunia, indeks-indeks saham jatuh karena kekuatiran berkepanjangan mengenai rendahnya harga komoditi (terutama karena harga minyak mentah menurun ke level terendah selama 2 bulan terakhir dan mungkin mulai kembali mendekati level 40 dollar AS), kekuatiran mengenai perlambatan pertumbuhan kredit di Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT), sementara pasar juga bersiap-siap untuk kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember (sebuah tindakan yang akan memicu capital outflows dari aset-aset negara berkembang yang lebih berisiko). Bulan ini pasar berada di bawah tekanan jual yang besar setelah mengalami reli di bulan Oktober.

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Saham-saham Asia menghadapi tekanan pada hari Jumat (13/11) karena rendahnya harga minyak dan meningkatnya perkiraan bahwa Federal Reserve akan menaikkan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25 basis poin di bulan Desember. Saham-saham sumberdaya alam menarik turun indeks-indeks saham di Australia, Hong Kong dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) lebih dari 1%. Kendati begitu, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), melawan tren di Asia, telah naik 0,51% menjadi 4.485,12 poin pada pukul 10:20 WIB kendati indeks-indeks Asia yang ada di zona merah. Sementara itu, dollar AS menguat terhadap mata uang Asia namun tidak setajam perkiraan sebelumnya.

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Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.01 percent to 4,451.59 points on Wednesday (11/11) despite foreign investors recording a net sell of IDR 614.4 billion (approx. USD $45.5 million). Uncertainty persists in the global economy as more macroeconomic data from China signal weaknesses in the world's second-largest economy. Growth in output from China's factories declined to a six-month low in October (missing expectations), following earlier disappointing trade and inflation data. On the other hand, it triggers hope that Beijing will step up stimulus measures.

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Positive macroeconomic data of Indonesia - involving the significantly lower trade deficit in 2014 and easing inflation - had a good impact on the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday (03/02) although prior to closing the currency somewhat slid after Australia's central bank cut its interest rates causing speculation of further policy easing around the Asia Pacific region in a move to support sluggish growth and avert deflation. Most emerging Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday against the US dollar on stronger risk appetite.

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Both Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate and stocks strengthened on Tuesday (27/01) as concerns about Greece exiting the Eurozone somewhat eased while the positive market sentiments that were caused by the European Central Bank’s recently unfolded quantitative easing program are still felt. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) gained 0.33 percent to 5,277.15 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 12,469 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Indonesian stocks hit a record high on Thursday (22/01). Most emerging Asian stocks and currencies strengthened on increased speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is to launch a massive bond-buying program (which was confirmed later on the day after Asian markets had closed), a move aimed at boosting inflation in the Eurozone and which puts pressure on euro-denominated assets. The euro had depreciated 1.67 percent against the US dollar by 11:20 ET on Thursday based on Bloomberg data.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.76 percent to IDR 12,481 per US dollar on Wednesday (21/01) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The performance of the rupiah was in line with most other emerging Asian currencies as Japan’s yen strengthened (against the US dollar) after Japan’s central bank announced to maintain an accommodative monetary policy in an attempt to boost inflation to two percent (y/y). Furthermore, speculation about quantitative easing in Europe boosted attractiveness of riskier Asian assets.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated on Wednesday (14/01) as global oil and other commodity prices continued to fall thus casting a negative spell on Indonesia’s currency. The rupiah depreciated 0.11 percent to IDR 12,614 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Market participants are concerned about the negative influence of low commodity prices on Indonesia’s export performance. Southeast Asia’s largest economy has had to cope with a wide trade and current account deficit in recent years.

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In line with the performance of other Asian emerging currencies, Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate appreciated on Monday (12/01) as the fall in US wages (released late last week) caused speculation that the Federal Reserve will - for now - delay its plan to start raising US borrowing costs. Despite solid growing US non-farm payrolls in December 2014, US wages (average hourly earnings) fell the most in eight years. Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 12,599 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and Indonesian stocks gained on the last trading day of the week in line with the performance of other emerging markets. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated IHGS) rose 0.09 percent to 5,216.67 points, while the rupiah appreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 12,647 according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The positive performance was mainly caused by speculation that the unexpected fall in US wages will keep the US central bank from raising its key interest rate soon.

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Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate and stocks opened stable on Wednesday (17/12) after two days marked by severe pressures on emerging market assets. By 11:30 am local Jakarta time, Indonesia’s rupiah was down 0.09 percent to IDR 12,736 per US dollar (according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index), while Indonesian stocks were up 0.41 percent by the same time. Yesterday, the rupiah nearly touched IDR 13,000 per US dollar (its lowest level since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998), before the central bank decided to support the currency.

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Amid weakening emerging Asian currencies, Indonesia’s rupiah exchange rate touched a six-year low on Friday (12/12) after US consumer spending rose in November while US jobless claims fell (signalling a strong recovery in the world’s largest economy). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.95 percent to IDR 12,467 per US dollar on Friday. Besides the impact of the US dollar’s bullish momentum, the rupiah also weakened on year-end US dollar demand from local companies for debt payments.

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Contrary to the previous trading day, most emerging Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday (09/12) supported by the yen’s advance as falling oil prices dented risk appetite. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia’s rupiah appreciated 0.47 percent to IDR 12,331 per US dollar today. Despite local firms’ increased US dollar demand to settle debt before the year-end, market participants were happy to learn that Indonesia’s central bank is active in the foreign exchange market to guard the currency.

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