Whereas the Indonesian rupiah is depreciating on Monday’s trading day (30/03), Indonesian stocks climb significantly. At 14:15 pm local Jakarta time, the benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) had gained 0.93 percent to 5,444.27 points. In line with other Asian markets, Indonesia’s stock index felt the positive impact of Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s statements on Friday (27/03). Yellen indicated in a speech in San Francisco that it is riskier to raise US interest rates too fast than to raise them too slowly.

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Dalam beberapa hari terakhir dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) kembali mendapatkan momentum bullish dan menguat terhadap sebagian besar mata uang termasuk rupiah. Dollar AS berada di bawah tekanan setelah Federal Reserve memberikan sinyal - kontras dengan ekspektasi pasar - bahwa Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat karena prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS dan inflasi AS belum ada di posisi yang diinginkan. Hal ini membuat aset pasar-pasar lebih menarik untuk jangka pendek. Namun, perkembangan ini tampaknya hanya berlangsung sebentar.

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The Indonesian government may raise the price of subsidized gasoline for April 2015 as the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) rose through February and March from USD $52 per barrel to USD $57 per barrel based on data from the upstream oil & gas regulator SKK Migas. After the Indonesian government drastically reduced fuel subsidy spending at the start of 2015, subsidized gasoline prices are now set each month, in line with price fluctuations on the world market. For subsidized diesel the government provides a fixed IDR 1,000 per liter.

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Nilai tukar rupiah mengawali minggu ini dengan posisi kuat karena dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) melemah akibat ketidakjelasan mengenai waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS. Kontras dengan dugaan awal, meeting Federal Reserve yang terakhir (diadakan 17-18 Maret) mengindikasikan bahwa belum akan ada kenaikan suku bunga dalam waktu singkat di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar. Hal ini mendorong meningkatnya minat untuk aset-aset pasar negara berkembang. Apalagi, Pemerintah Indonesia dan Bank Indonesia berjanji akan menjaga stabilitas rupiah.

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Tampaknya, pesan Federal Reserve bahwa Fed masih menunda menaikkan suku bunga di Amerika Serikat (AS) hanya mengimplikasikan periode singkat pelemahan dollar AS terhadap mata uang Asia. Pada hari Jumat (20/03), rupiah melemah 0,51% menjadi Rp 13.124 per dollar AS menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index. Volatilitas tinggi pada saat ini juga merupakan akibat dari kebijakan berbeda yang diterapkan oleh berbagai bank sentral. Sementara Federal Reserve AS bertekad untuk lebih mengetatkan kebijakan moneternya, bank sentral di Jepang dan Eropa melakukan sebaliknya.

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Saham di Indonesia dan nilai tukar rupiah menguat tajam pada hari Kamis (19/03) setelah Federal Reserve menunda menaikkan suku bunga acuannya dalam Pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) selama dua hari yang berakhir pada hari Rabu (18/03) karena inflasi Amerika Serikat (AS) masih rendah sedangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS sedikit melambat. Bank sentral AS menberikan sinyal bahwa Fed tidak terburu-buru untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuannya. Di sisi lain, Fed juga menghapuskan kata 'sabar' dari panduannya untuk suku bunga (yang berada dalam posisi paling rendah sejak akhir 2008).

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Setelah serangkaian data ekonomi yang baik (terutama data tenaga kerja di Amerika Serikat) pasar menduga Federal Reserve akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya pada kuartal kedua atau ketiga tahun ini dan karenanya dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) dapat bullish momentum (hampir menjadi posisi tertinggi selama 11 tahun terakhir). Karena prediksi yield yang lebih tinggi di AS, modal kembali masuk ke negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di dunia ini. Pada saat yang sama, hal ini menimbulkan kerugian besar pada mata uang di negara-negara berkembang, termasuk nilai tukar rupiah yang turun 6% terhadap dollar AS pada tahun ini.

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Di Indonesia, lampu sorot tetap tajam terfokus pada pelemahan drastis rupiah. Karena semakin berkembangnya spekulasi bahwa US Federal Reserve akan segera menaikkan tingkat suku bunga pinjamannya, aset-aset pasar berkembang (baik mata uang maupun saham) cenderung melemah. Walau sebagian besar mata uang Asia melemah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS), rupiah lebih rentan karena Indonesia sedang mengalami defisit transaksi berjalan yang besar. Hal ini menginformasikan kepada para investor bahwa negara ini bergantung pada capital inflows dari negara-negara asing.

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Saham-saham Indonesia dan nilai tukar rupiah kena dampak negatif dari penguatan nilai tukar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Senin (09/03) setelah rilisnya US payrolls yang lebih kuat dari prediksi sebelumnya dan karenanya memperkuat dugaan bahwa US Federal Reserve akan menaikkan suku bunga pinjaman acuannya pada bulan Juni. Terlebih lagi, pada minggu lalu, Gubernur bank sentral AS Janet Yellen telah memberikan sinyal kepada Konggres AS bahwa bank sentral AS mungkin akan mengurangi 'patient stance'. IHSG jatuh 1,25% ke 5.445,84 poin pada sesi perdagangan pertama di hari Senin (09/03).

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Pemerintah Indonesia meneruskan perjuangan mereka untuk meringankan kekuatiran masyarakat tentang dampak dari rupiah yang lemah pada perekonomian Indonesia. Bahkan, Pemerintah menekankan bahwa rupiah yang lemah akan berdampak positif pada neraca perdagangan dan neraca transaksi berjalan karena produk-produk ekspor Indonesia menjadi lebih kompetitif. Selama satu minggu ini, rupiah melemah 1% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sejak awal 2015, rupiah telah jatuh 4,4% terhadap dollar AS, karenanya menjadi salah satu mata uang di negara-negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk di tahun ini.

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On the first trading day of the week (Monday 28 April 2014), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.19 percent to IDR 11,587 per US dollar based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Several factors - both internal and external - influenced the rupiah as well as Indonesian stocks in a negative way. The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) declined a whopping 1.61 percent to 4,818.76 points, in line with the regional trend in Asia today.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate ended the week with a 0.32 percent gain to IDR 11,565 per US dollar on Friday (25/04) based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Despite still high local demand for US dollars ahead of the month-end (for reasons of profit repatriation, imports and debt repayments), the rupiah managed to appreciate as (foreign and domestic) investments in Indonesia were reported to have reached a new record at IDR 106.6 trillion (USD $9.4 billion) in the first quarter of 2014.

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Mostly declining Asian stock indices, led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite, had a negative influence on the performance of Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) on Wednesday (23/04). Moreover, today's sharp rupiah depreciation contributed to the 0.10 percent decline to 4,893.15 points. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.94 percent to 11,630 per US dollar.

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Despite sharp rupiah depreciation and generally falling Asian stock indices, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) managed to climb 0.12 percent to 4,898.21 points on Tuesday (22/04). Factors that contributed to push the IHSG into green territory were dividend payment announcements and optimism regarding companies' financial performances in the first quarter of 2014. Foreign investors accounted for 34 percent of today’s total trading, recording net buying of IDR 1 trillion (USD $87.7 million).

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Due to a lack of positive domestic and external sentiments, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has depreciated to a six-week low against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, Indonesia's currency declined 0.66 percent to IDR 11,521 per US dollar by 16:22 local Jakarta time. In fact, several negative domestic sentiments are the reason behind the current depreciation. Firstly, revived concerns about Indonesia's current account deficit and, secondly, concerns about capital outflows due to dividend payments.

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After having recorded a five-day winning streak, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) fell 0.10 percent to 4,892.29 points on Monday (21/04). The forming of a doji star and limited movement of the IHSG (due to reduced buying volume) implied that - without the publication of good news triggering positive market sentiments - the index would decline. Today's depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and mixed Asian indices were reasons for investors to engage in profit taking.

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Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) posted another small gain on Wednesday (16/04), thus extending its winning streak to four days. The index gained 0.06 percent to 4,873.01 points. Despite slowing GDP growth in China, a depreciating rupiah exchange rate (responding to slightly higher US chain store sales and expected higher US building permits as well as US manufacturing production) and foreign investors recording a net sell, the index stayed in the green zone.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate moved within limited range on Wednesday. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 11,436 per US dollar. Since Thursday (10/04), the rupiah has had to cope with pressures as Indonesia's legislative election was unable to provide political certainty. On the other hand, the country's improved economic fundamentals - easing inflation and the narrowing current account deficit - have resulted in capital inflows, thus supporting the rupiah.

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After several days of strong performance, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) felt the impact of profit taking on Tuesday (16/04). As a consquence, the IHSG's upward movement was limited and unable to completely close the gap at 4,829-4,906. At the start of the trading day, the index opened positively, but during the day - when a number of Asian indices were down - the IHSG's performance was curbed. Indonesia's benchmark index gained 0.11 percent to 4,870.21 points.

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Investors’ appetite for Indonesian stocks, particularly the big cap stocks, made Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) rise further on Monday (14/04). Most of the sectoral indices were up, led by the property sector and followed by basic industries. Contrary to most Asian indices, which were mixed today (with raw materials in particular being sold by investors), the IHSG managed to climb 1.00 percent to 4,864.88 points.

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