Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) is well aware of the continuation of the "currency war" as a side-effect of further monetary tightening in the USA. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said on Monday (08/06), quoted by state news agency Antara, that he sees a currency war continuing over the next three years provided that the Federal Reserve starts to tighten its monetary approach gradually. Markets expect the Fed to raise US interest rates in September 2015.

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are experiencing severe pressures at the start of the new trading week. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 1.68 percent to 5,014.99 points (a seven-month low), while the rupiah depreciated 0.71 percent to IDR 13,385 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index on Monday (08/06). As such, the rupiah extended its record-low closing in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Indonesian stocks and the rupiah are the worst performing Asian assets.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued to set a new record-low in the post Asian Financial Crisis era. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah depreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 13,290 per US dollar on Friday (05/06), the weakest level since 1998. A number of factors are responsible for this weak performance. These include higher bond yields, US dollar demand due to dividend repatriation and debt repayment, Indonesia’s high inflation, uncertainty about the Greek debt crisis and looming higher US interest rates.

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Karena nilai rupiah Indonesia terus melemah pada hari Kamis (04/06), hampir menyentuh tingkat terendah selama 17 tahun, seorang pejabat bank sentral mencoba meringankan kekuatiran dengan menyatakan bahwa Bank Indonesia selalu ada di di pasar forex dan obligasi untuk memonitor pergerakan dan meringankan volatilitas. Pada hari Kamis pagi, bond yield, yang telah meningkat sejak Jumat (29/05), pada 8,198%. Berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index, rupiah telah melemah 0,11% menjadi Rp 13.245 pada pukul 11:10 WIB.

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In line with other stock indices in Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) has been weakening since the start of trading on Wednesday (03/06). Yesterday’s weakening indices on Wall Street, concern about rising bond yields, worries about the possibility of a default by debt-ridden Greece, and weak macroeconomic data from Indonesia have all contributed to the negative performance of Indonesian stocks so far today. By 11:15 am local time, the Jakarta Composite Index had fallen 1.42 percent.

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Sebagian besar pasar saham Asia turun pada hari Rabu (27/05), termasuk Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). IHSG turun 0,95% menjadi 5.270,22 poin pada pukul 14:32 WIB. Performa yang buruk saham-saham di seluruh Asia hari ini mengikuti jatuhnya pasar saham Amerika Serikat (AS) kemarin. Dow Jones, S&P 500 dan Nasdaq semuanya menurunkan sekitar 1% karena kuatnya dollar AS setelah terbitnya sejumlah data perekonomian AS yang kuat (yang mendukung kenaikan suku bunga AS sebelum akhir tahun) dan meningkatnya kekuatiran mengenai krisis hutang di Yunani.

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Rupiah Indonesia memulai minggu perdagangan baru dengan catatan negatif. Pukul 10:45 WIB, rupiah telah melemah 0,17% menjadi Rp 13.181 per dollar AS menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index. Alasan utama untuk performa ini adalah karena dollar AS telah menguat secara global setelah Pimpinan Federal Reserve Janet Yellen menyatakan bahwa dia yakin akan terjadi kenaikan suku bunga as yang pertama sejak hampir satu dekade sebelum akhir tahun ini (asal data perekonomian AS terus membaik).

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Indonesian stocks continued to rise one day after the country’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) announced to leave the interest rate policy unchanged and, instead, choosing to loosen its macro-prudential policy by revising the LDR-RR regulation, LTV policy for mortgage loans and down payments on automotive loans, hence increasing liquidity and boosting credit growth in the banking sector. Indonesia's rupiah, however, depreciated sharply after the market opened on Wednesday (20/05) due to the strong US dollar.

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Indonesia’s rupiah continued to weaken on Monday’s trading day (18/05). The Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.22 percent to IDR 13,113 per US dollar by 12:08 pm based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index as market participants are waiting for results of the central bank’s Board of Governor’s Meeting, scheduled for Tuesday (19/05). At this meeting Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) will discuss and determine its stance on the country’s interest rate environment. Currently, the key rate (BI rate) is set relatively high at 7.50 percent.

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The Indonesian rupiah is again depreciating. On Tuesday (12/05), the rupiah had depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,206 per US dollar by 11:51 am local Jakarta time based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The primary reason for this weak performance today is US dollar demand amid heightened concerns about Greece’s debt situation. Talks between the Greek leftist government and its international partners are heading toward a crucial phase. As a result, the greenback is appreciating against almost all Asian currencies.

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Kalau kita memperhatikan aktivitas jangka panjang rupiah, kita telah melihat kekuatan yang mengejutkan dalam aktivitas beberapa bulan terakhir. Hal ini mengejutkan karena beberapa alasan yang berbeda dan tidak serupa dengan keadaan pasar negara berkembang lain di Asia. Secara esensial ini menyarankan bahwa aktivitas perekonomian di wilayah ini telah agak kurang berhubungan dan bahwa trend yang tampak di satu negara tidak bisa diprediksi sama di negara lain. Namun ketika kita melihat grafik aktivitas di rupiah sendiri, kita bisa melihat trend secara umum telah mulai berubah di dua bulan terakhir.

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Both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to slide on Thursday (04/06) and seem to be caught in a vicious downward spiral brought about by both domestic and international factors. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 0.68 percent to close at a five-week low of 5,095.82 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.39 percent to IDR 13,281 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index), a level last seen in the late 1990s when the country was plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis.

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On the first trading day of the new week, both Indonesian stocks and the rupiah moved more-or-less sideways. Generally, indices in Southeast Asia were mixed as positive external sentiments were offset by local negative sentiments. In the case of Indonesia, negative local sentiments stemmed from the higher-than-estimated inflation figure in May and continued contraction of the manufacturing industry. Positive market sentiments stemmed from the USA where GDP growth was revised to minus 0.7 percent in Q1-2015.

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Most stock markets and currencies in Southeast Asia weakened on Friday (29/05), including Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index and the rupiah. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.40 percent to 5,216.38 points, while the rupiah depreciated 0.01 percent to IDR 13,224 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Over the past week, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened primarily due to the Greek debt crisis, looming higher US interest rates and the lack of positive domestic factors.

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Sejalan dengan indeks lain di Asia, saham Indonesia naik pada hari Selasa (26/05). Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) naik 0,62% menjadi 5.320,90 poin. Sentimen-sentimen positif tidak berasal dari Amerika Serikat (AS) karena pasar saham AS ditutup kemarin karena hari libur namun terutama berasal dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) yang badan perencanaan perekonomiannya mengumumkan akan mengimplementasikan sejumlah kebijakan baru dalam usaha mendongkrak perekonomian yang lambat. Kendati begitu, rupiah melemah 0,25% menjadi Rp 13.220 per dollar AS berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index.

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Although most emerging market stocks fell, Indonesian stocks and the rupiah showed a solid performance on Thursday (21/05). The rupiah appreciated 0.40 percent to IDR 13,122 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, while the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) rose 0.39 percent to 5,313.21 points. Most emerging stocks fell due to weak data from China (despite a series of stimulus). However, Indonesian stocks were supported by news about its credit rating and dividend announcements.

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Menjelang penerbitan angka pertumbuhan resmi proyek domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia di kuartal 1 (dijadwalkan untuk diterbitkan di minggu pertama), saham-saham Indonesia dan rupiah melemah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) akibat lemahnya sentimen pasar yang telah membebani pasar selama seminggu terakhir. Terlebih lagi, pendapatan perusahaan blue chip di kuartal 1 yang dilaporkan lebih rendah dari dugaan membuat para pelaku pasar kuatir bahwa perlambatan perekonomian telah berlanjut di kuartal 1 tahun 2015.

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Over the past week, the Indonesian rupiah continued to appreciate against the US dollar. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah appreciated 0.07 percent to IDR 12,850 per US dollar on Friday (17/04). Only a month ago, investors and policymakers were alarmed when the rupiah touched IDR 13,245 per US dollar, a 17-year low. This column discusses the factors that caused the strengthening of the rupiah in recent weeks. However, amid looming further monetary tightening in the USA, this development should be short-term only.

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Kalau kita melihat aktivitas pasar rupiah, sangat jelas bahwa beberapa trend telah mulai terjadi. Terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS), rupiah menunjukkan pelemahan selama ini. Banyak investor mulai melihat bahwa pelemahan rupiah sudah overdone dan kita mulai melihat para analis yang menyuarakan bahwa rupiah akan menguat dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. Namun ada juga argumen melawan prospek ini dan penting bagi siapa pun yang berinvestasi di aset-aset Indonesia untuk memahami beberapa faktor ini, untuk bisa mengambil posisi yang tepat.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that, besides global volatility caused by uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates, the rupiah has been - and remains - under pressure due to Indonesia’s increasing private sector debt and the wide current account deficit. Moreover, as subsidiaries of multinational companies in Indonesia tend to send back dividends to the foreign parent companies in the second quarter (implying rising US dollar demand), the rupiah is plagued by additional pressures up to June.

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