The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects that the country’s trade balance will show a USD $500 million surplus in February 2015 on the back of increased manufacturing exports, the higher price of crude palm oil, and lower oil imports. In January, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a USD $710 million surplus, divided into a USD $748 million surplus in the non-oil & gas trade balance and a USD $38.6 million deficit in the oil & gas trade balance.

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Di Indonesia, lampu sorot tetap tajam terfokus pada pelemahan drastis rupiah. Karena semakin berkembangnya spekulasi bahwa US Federal Reserve akan segera menaikkan tingkat suku bunga pinjamannya, aset-aset pasar berkembang (baik mata uang maupun saham) cenderung melemah. Walau sebagian besar mata uang Asia melemah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS), rupiah lebih rentan karena Indonesia sedang mengalami defisit transaksi berjalan yang besar. Hal ini menginformasikan kepada para investor bahwa negara ini bergantung pada capital inflows dari negara-negara asing.

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Indonesia posted a USD $709.4 million trade surplus in January 2015 according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released on Monday (16/02). Although the surplus is higher than expected and thus has a positive impact on the country’s trade and current account balances, the data also indicated that exports fell 8.09 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $13.30 billion signalling continued weakening global demand for Indonesian exports. Meanwhile, Indonesian imports shrank by 15.6 percent (y/y) to USD $12.59 billion.

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The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.02 percent year-on-year (y/y) to IDR 8,354 trillion (USD $664 billion) in 2014, the nation’s slowest annual growth pace since 2009, according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). As such, GDP growth failed to achieve the central government’s 5.5 percentage point growth target that was set in the 2014 State Budget. Indonesia’s economic growth has been slowing since 2011 when it still posted a 6.5 percentage point growth rate (y/y). However, growth is expected to rebound from here.

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Indonesian Trade Minister Rachmat Gobel said that the continuation of economic cooperation between Indonesia and Japan, as set out in the Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA), is to be reviewed soon by both countries. Gobel met Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoichi Miyazawa in Tokyo today. In the IJEPA it was mentioned that cooperation between both countries can be reviewed after the bilateral free-trade agreement had been in effect for five years.

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The current account deficit of Indonesia, which is expected to have improved slightly from 3.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to about 3 percent of GDP in 2014, is forecast to continue to improve in 2015 hence placing less pressures on the rupiah exchange rate and the economy in general. A wide current account deficit makes the country vulnerable to capital outflows in times of global shocks (for example looming higher US interest rates) as the deficit signals that Indonesia relies on foreign funding.

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On Monday (08/12) the World Bank released the December edition of its Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled ‘Delivering Chance’. In the report the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia next year to 5.2 percent (y/y), from 5.6 percent (y/y) in the July edition of its flagship publication, due to weaker investment growth and sluggish exports. Indonesia’s GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 5.1 percent (y/y), slightly below the World Bank’s previous estimate of 5.2 percent.

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On Monday morning (08/12), the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate quickly plunged after the release of weak macroeconomic data from Japan and China, two important trading partners of Indonesia. Economic growth in Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, contracted 0.5 percent (quarter-to-quarter) in Q3-2014, while Chinese imports fell 6.7 percent (year-on-year) in November 2014. As a result the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.54 percent to IDR 12,365 per US dollar by 11:30 am local Jakarta time, the weakest level in six years.

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Statistics Indonesia announced on Wednesday (05/11) that economic growth in Indonesia reached 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014. This result was slightly below analysts’ forecasts and implies that the slowing trend of economic expansion in Southeast Asia’s largest economy continues. Since 2011, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been declining amid global and domestic developments. The 5.01 percentage point GDP growth in Q3-2014 was the slowest quarterly growth pace in five years.

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With China’s economic growth slowing to 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2014, Indonesian exports will be affected as China is one of Indonesia’s most important trading partners. Prior to the release of China’s Q3-2014 GDP growth result, the outgoing government of Indonesia had already trimmed its export target for 2014 as global commodity prices have still not picked up. In fact prices of palm oil, coal, rubber, copper and iron ore have fallen in the first three quarters of 2014 according to Indonesian government data.

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While many are relieved to see a trade surplus for Indonesia in August 2019, the picture does not look too positive when we delve a bit deeper in the data, and shows that global conditions are far from positive amid contracting international trade and subdued global economic growth (with ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China being a key issue).

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After nearly nine years of talks and negotiations (although communication between both sides had been put to a halt - amid diplomatic tensions – at more than one occasion over these nine years) Indonesia and Australia finally signed the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA) in Jakarta on 4 March 2019. It is an agreement that launches a brand new chapter in economic relations and cooperation between Australia and Indonesia.

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Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia recorded a USD $227.1 million trade surplus in September 2018. Although it is a very small surplus, it did lead to some optimism. After all, Indonesia had recorded big monthly trade deficits of USD $2.0 billion and USD $944.2 million in July 2018 and August 2018, respectively.

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Based on the latest data of Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade deficit was recorded at USD $1.02 billion in August 2018. Although improving from the USD $2.03 billion trade deficit one month earlier (which constituted Indonesia’s biggest monthly trade deficit in five years), the deficit remains robust and therefore causes persistent concerns about the country’s current account deficit and the rupiah exchange rate.

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The trade balance of Indonesia showed another deficit in February 2018, the nation's third consecutive monthly trade deficit. Based on data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), the country's total exports reached USD $14.1 billion in February, up 10.1 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, while total imports grew 25.2 percent (y/y) to USD $14.2 billion.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it expects to see another monthly trade deficit - approximately USD $230 million - in February 2018. If so, it would be the third straight monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy after a USD $220 million deficit in December 2017 and a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018 (the latter being the country's highest monthly deficit since April 2014).

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In line with the increase in domestic economic activity, Indonesia's trade balance recorded a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018. The deficit was particularly attributed to a shrinking surplus of the country's non-oil & gas trade balance. Although Indonesia's oil & gas deficit declined in the first month of 2018, it was not enough to offset the impact of the shrinking non-oil & gas surplus. Hence the country posted its second consecutive monthly trade deficit.

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Through Trade Ministry Regulation No. 82/2017 on the Terms of Use of National Shipping and Insurance Companies for the Export and Import of Certain Goods the Indonesian government requires exporters of crude palm oil (CPO), coal and rice to use ships that are owned by local sea transport companies as well as to use domestic insurance. This regulation will come into effect, gradually, per May 2018.

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In the last month of 2017 Indonesia posted a USD $270 million trade deficit according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This result goes against the prediction of most analysts, who expected to see another trade surplus for Southeast Asia's largest economy. Indonesia posted a trade surplus in all months of 2017 with the exception of July and December.

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Earlier this week, the central banks of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia), Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), Thailand (Bank of Thailand) jointly announced the launch of the local currency settlement framework. This framework aims at boosting the use of local currencies in transactions (specifically related to trade and investment) conducted between Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand in an effort to reduce these countries' dependence on the US dollar.

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