Bank Pembangunan Asia (Asian Development Bank/ADB) mengumumkan telah mengurangi proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 dan 2016 baik untuk Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) maupun negara-negara berkembang Asia lainnya karena perlambatan perekonomian yang berkelanjutan di negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini. Ekspansi perekonomian RRT diproyeksikan untuk mencapai 7% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di 2015 dan 6,8% (y/y) di 2016. Kedua proyeksi ini turun 0,2% poin dari proyeksi ADB sebelumnya.

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Sejalan dengan tren global, saham Indonesia terus naik pada Selasa (14/07). Kebanyakan indeks-indeks saham (di seluruh dunia) terus bergerak dalam wilayah hijau setelah Yunani yang dibebani banyak hutang mencapai kesepakatan dengan kreditor internasionalnya - setelah pertemuan darurat selama 17 jam - untuk sebuah paket penghematan yang akan tetap mempertahankan Yunani di dalam zona euro. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) telah naik 0,60% menjadi 4.923,36 poin pada pukul 11:45 WIB pada hari Selasa.

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global di 2015 menjadi 3,3% pada basis year-on-year (y/y), dari 3,5% (y/y) sebelumnya, karena musim dingin yang keras mempengaruhi Amerika Serikat (AS) dan sejalan dengan itu menarik turun pertumbuhan global. Di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, perekonomian AS berkontraksi 0,2% (y/y). Terlebih lagi, kekacauan di Yunani dan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok menyebabkan volatilitas yang besar dalam pasar keuangan global, lembaga yang bermarkas di Washington ini menyatakan dalam sebuah update World Economic Outlook (WEO) pada hari Kamis (09/07).

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Indonesian stocks and the rupiah weakened further on Wednesday (08/07) due to the continuing fall of Chinese stocks (raising concerns about global economic growth) and the downward revision of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s economic growth forecasts for Indonesia in 2015. Furthermore, global uncertainty brought about by the looming Greek exit (Grexit) from the euro continues to plague markets worldwide and makes investors prefer to wait for more certain times.

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The World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in Indonesia in 2015 from 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.7 percent (y/y) as private consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of total economic growth in Indonesia, is estimated to weaken further in the second half of 2015 while government spending has been lower than expected (causing subdued fixed investment). Furthermore, persistent low commodity prices and tighter credit conditions provide further pressures that led to the extreme downward revision.

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Meskipun Indonesia dianggap sebagai salah satu perekonomian Asia yang sangat rentah terhadap keluarnya Yunani dari zona euro (Greek exit/Grexit), saham dan rupiah Indonesia tidak melemah sebanyak aset-aset pasar negara berkembang lainnya pada hari Senin (29/06), hari perdagangan pertama setelah hancurnya pembicaraan antara Yunani, yang dibebani banyak hutang, dengan para kreditor internasionalnya. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) jatuh 0,82% menjadi 4.882,59 poin sementara rupiah melemah 0,24% menjadi Rp 13.339 per dollar AS (Indeks Bloomberg).

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Saham Indonesia diprediksi merasakan tekanan turun yang berat pada hari Senin (29/06) karena pembicaraan yang terhenti antara Yunani yang terbeban hutang dengan para kreditor internasionalnya. Transaksi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) masih belum dibuka namun pasar-pasar Asia yang lain segera jatuh setelah pembukaan. Indeks Nikkei 225 dari Jepang turun 2,28% sementara yen menguat (para investor sedang mengejar aset-aset yang aman), sementara KOSPI dari Korea Selatan jatuh 1,5%. Nilai euro sangat menurun dalam perdagangan Asia.

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In a meeting with Commission XI of Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR), Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the economy of Indonesia is currently facing four global risks. These four risks are low international commodity prices, China’s slowing economic expansion, the Greek debt crisis in the Eurozone and, lastly, further monetary tightening to be conducted by the US Federal Reserve. These issues are not new and have already contributed to slowing economic growth in Indonesia.

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Nilai saham Indonesia dan rupiah menguat pada hari perdagangan terakhir karena didukung oleh kenaikan sedang dari sejumlah indeks di Wall Street pada hari Kamis (07/05), yang sangat kontras dengan penjualan besar-besaran yang terjadi sehari sebelumnya setelah pimpinan Federal Reserve Janet Yellen menyatakan bahwa harga saham-saham Amerika Serikat (AS) mungkin dihargaii secara berlebihan. Sementara itu, data perdagangan yang lemah dari Republik Rakyat Tionghoa (RRT) mungkin akan mendorong para pembuat kebijakan RRT untuk menyediakan lebih banyak stimulus. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan naik 0,62% menjadi 5.182,21 poin pada hari Jumat (08/05).

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Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q1-2015 dicatat 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Meskipun telah diprediksi bahwa angka pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia akan jatuh di bawah batas 5%, perlambatan ini lebih buruk dari dugaan awal. Suryamin, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), menyatakan pada awal hari ini (05/05) bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat mencapai level terendah selama lima tahun akibat lemahnya ekspor (hasil dari berkurangnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di pasar ekspor) dan rendahnya harga minyak mentah dunia.

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According to the World Bank, a sharp dismantling of capital injections by the central banks can lead to a 80 percent reduction of capital inflows into the emerging economies, including Indonesia. This can cause serious damage or even a crisis situation in an emerging market because capital flows to these countries are more triggered by global factors than domestic ones. The winding down of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program (quantitative easing) has been gradual for now but if interest rates rise quickly it can hurt emerging economies.

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Several factors can be mentioned that may explain the fall of the Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, abbreviated as IHSG) on Monday's trading day (06/01). These include a sell off of mining stocks (which subsequently negatively affected agricultural stocks) because of the approaching implementation of the ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, the continuing depreciating rupiah exchange rate, the impact of falling stock indices across Asia, and the higher price of 12 kilogram-cylinders of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

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On Friday (03/01), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) ended 1.61 percent down to 4,257.66 points amid a majority of global indices declining after having experienced a short (window dressing-inspired) rally at the end of the year. The IHSG, which was not affected by the window dressing phenomenon, was dragged down after experiencing a four-day rally in the last week of 2013. Positive US employment data were unable to support global indices.

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The announcement that the Federal Reserve (FED) will start its quantitative easing tapering in January 2014, while keeping interest rates low, made stock indices in Asia rise, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), although mining and property stocks were able to limit today's gain. The IHSG rose 0.85 percent to 4,231.98 points on Thursday (19/12). The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate (IDR), however, was down as future tighter US dollar supplies causes market participants to buy US dollar now.

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Wall Street, which was up on Monday (16/12) supported by various economic data, managed to support Asian stock indices on Tuesday (17/12), including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (IHSG). Investors were back and ready to trade on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. As usual, the big cap stocks were highly popular. The rupiah’s Bank Indonesia mid-rate, which improved slightly, also contributed to the good performance of the IHSG today. The index rose 1.37 percent to 4,182.35 points.

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Asia's stock indices were up after various US economic data (including non-farm payrolls and consumer confidence) were better than expected, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (also known as the Jakarta Composite index or IHSG). The index climbed 0.80 percent to 4,214.34 points on Monday (09/12). Supported by foreign net buying, almost all sectoral indices of the IHSG were up. The economic policy package that was released by the Ministry of Economy this afternoon also provided support for the index and the rupiah.

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According to a survey of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), 44.9 percent of respondents assessed Indonesia as the most promising investment destination for the next three years. The respondents in this survey involved 500 Japanese companies that engage in international businesses. For Indonesia it is the first time in 21 years that it forms the preferred choice of overseas investments for Japanese companies, thus replacing China. In 2013, Japan already dominates foreign direct investment in Indonesia.

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Emerging East Asian countries should use the window of opportunity opened by the delay in US monetary policy normalization to strengthen their economies and financial systems, the latest quarterly Asia Bond Monitor from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) urges. “A delay in US bond tapering gives the region a bit of extra time to make sure its economy and financial systems are resilient enough to face the likely market volatility ahead,” said Iwan J. Azis, Head of ADB’s Office of Regional Economic Integration which produced the report.

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Positifnya laju bursa saham Asia sepanjang sesi yang terimbas dari menghijaunya bursa saham AS dan Eropa di akhir pekan kemarin dan adanya spekulasi Pemerintah China akan melakukan reformasi ekonomi untuk menopang pertumbuhan negaranya dan berita positif dari tetapnya rating BBB- peringkat utang Indonesia oleh Fitch Rating memberikan angin segar pada IHSG pada hari Senin (18/11).

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The Jakarta Composite index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index or IHSG) fell on Monday (11/11) amid mixed Asian markets. Not even positive finishes on Wall Street last Friday (08/11) were able to support the IHSG. Most investors seem to be waiting for results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting which is scheduled for Tuesday (12/11). This meeting will provide answers about the central bank's view of the domestic economy and whether it thinks another adjustement of the BI rate is necessary.

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