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Berita Hari Ini Federal Reserve
In line with expectations, the US Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 2.00 - 2.25 percent at the September policy meeting that was concluded on Wednesday 26 September 2018. It is the Fed's eight rate hike since 2015 and the third one so far in 2018.
Those who invest in Indonesian assets (or actually in any assets across the globe) will need to carefully monitor two matters this week. First, the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting (scheduled for 25-26 September 2018) that will most likely result in another interest rate hike. And secondly, the latest developments in USA-China (trade) relations.
The Indonesian rupiah rate depreciated beyond the IDR 14,700 per US dollar level on Friday (31/08). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index the rupiah had weakened 0.20 percent to IDR 14,710 per US dollar by 11:00 am local Jakarta time. Indonesia's currency is now gradually approaching a two-decade low. The weakening rupiah also caused the country's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index to fall 1.19 percent on Friday's first trading session.
The Indonesian rupiah is under pressure again on Thursday (23/08) in line with the overall trend of emerging market currencies. Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the rupiah had depreciated 0.38 percent to IDR 14,630 per US dollar by 11:00 am local Jakarta time on Thursday.
In line with expectations, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves continued to decline for the sixth consecutive month. Per late-July 2018 the country's foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD $118.3 billion, down from the level of USD $119.8 billion one month earlier.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) hiked its benchmark interest rate three times over the past six weeks - by a total of 1.00 percent to take the benchmark to the level of 5.25 percent - in order to defend the rupiah. Last Friday (27/06) Bank Indonesia surprised part of the market by implementing a 0.50 percent rate hike. As a result, the rupiah strengthened markedly. However, its impact on the rupiah performance seems very temporary. This week the rupiah is again depreciating, hovering around the IDR 14,400 per US dollar level.
While Asian markets are mixed on Wednesday morning (20/06), Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index plunged 2 percent (to a four-week low) in the first five minutes after trading resumed after the long Eid al-Fitr holiday. Indeed a lot happened on the global stage since Indonesian markets closed on Friday 8 June 2018 that has not been absorbed by Indonesian assets. Therefore, today it is catch-up day for investors.
In the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly (June 2018 edition) there are plenty of positive words about the Indonesian economy, such as robust economic growth, low inflation, rising investment, growing government spending, and prudent monetary policy. However, the World Bank also detects some "substantial and mostly external" risks that lurk about. Below is the summary of the World Bank's latest Indonesia Economic Quarterly, entitled "Learning More, Growing Faster".
In line with expectations the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate - the BI seven-day reverse repo rate - by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in an unscheduled meeting on Wednesday (30/05). In combination with the scheduled monthly policy meeting on 16-17 May 2018, Bank Indonesia raised the benchmark interest rate by a total of 0.50 percent this month.
While most Asian shares are in red territory amid some risk aversion, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is skyrocketing on Thursday (24/05). In the first trading session of the day the benchmark index of Indonesia soared 2.39 percent to 5,930.13 points as foreigners are back to enjoy bargain hunting (before the start of trading today, the Jakarta Composite Index had weakened nearly 9 percent since the year-start).
Artikel Terbaru Federal Reserve
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) was able to continue its rise on Thursday (11/07) despite mixed markets in the United States and Europe, that were waiting for the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, on the previous day. The minutes and Ben Bernanke's speech indicate that the bond-buying program will be continued for a while and this made investors decide to buy Indonesian assets, particularly large cap stocks such as Unilever Indonesia, Bank Mandiri and Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa.
After most European and American stock indices had been positive for a couple of days in a row, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) finally found its way up again. On Wednesday (10/07), the index rose 1.70 percent to 4,478.64 points. Moreover, on the previous day, Asian stock indices had shown a good performance and this convinced investors to buy Indonesian assets (which have fallen considerably recently) the next day. Despite foreigners still being net sellers of Indonesian stocks, a number of big cap stocks rose sharply.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) fell 3.68 percent to 4,433.63 on Monday's trading day (08/07). This current level is the lowest level of the IHSG since 26 June 2013. Of the 473 listed companies, 263 were down, 21 were up and the remainder did not move. Most Asian indices fell due to concerns about China's credit crisis that may impact on the country's economic growth and that the positive US employment report will affect continuation of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.6 percent.
Although the main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) ended on a positive note last Friday (05/07) by rising 0.46 percent to 4,602.81, foreign investors still sold a net IDR 262 billion (USD $26.5 million) worth of shares, while the value of transactions in the regular market was only IDR 3.17 trillion (USD $320.2 million). The rise of the IHSG at the end of last week was more due to support from Asian indices that were up after the European Central Bank and Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5 percent.
Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) went up 0.46 percent to 4,602.81 on Friday (05/07). The index followed the general trend in Asia, where most stock indices rose. Of all 473 listed companies on the Indonesia stock exchange (IDX), 102 rose, 140 weakened, and 113 did not move. Foreign investors are still withdrawing their money from the IHSG. Today, foreigners recorded a net sale of IDR 260.7 billion (USD $26 million). Basic industry and consumption were the sectors that provided most support for the IHSG.
Higher American indices after the release of ADP employment change and lower initial jobless claims made an indirect impact on Asian stock indices, including Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) on Thursday (04/07). Investors used the positive outcomes of these data to start purchasing stocks, although in limited quantities. Foreign investors, however, are still selling more Indonesian shares than they buy, which subsequently results in limited growth of the IHSG on Thursday (04/07). The index grew 0.10 percent to 4,581.93.
For the third day in a row, Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG) made a strong upward jump on Friday (28/06). Supported by strong American and European stock indices on the previous trading day, the IHSG rose 3.06 percent to 4,818.90 points. American and European indices mostly rose on Thursday (27/06) due to various positive macroeconomic data from the USA. These economic data translated into the good performance of the IHSG and other Asian stock indices on Friday. All sectoral indices of the IHSG were reported to have grown.
Stock indices in the United States were up for the third day in a row on Thursday (27/06). Main reason for this upward trend are various positive macroeconomic figures from the USA. The number of homes under contract to be sold (excluding new construction) grew 6.7 percent in May, while analysts had forecast growth of about 1 percent from the previous month. Personal spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the domestic economy, grew 0.3 percent in May, while personal income rose 0.5 percent.
Asian stock indices were up on Thursday (27/06) after economic growth of the United States in Q1-2013 was lower than expected. Paradoxically, this had a positive effect on global stock indices as speculation arose that the disappointing growth rate would convince the Federal Reserve to continue its quantitative easing program. It also had a good affect on Indonesia's main stock index (IHSG), which gained 1.92 percent and ended at 4,675.75. The index was well on its way to close a gap (at 4,743-4,801) but was blocked by mixed European openings.
The main stock index of Indonesia (IHSG) fell 0.24 percent to 4,418.87 on Tuesday (25/06) as foreign investors continued to sell parts of their Indonesian stock portfolios. In fact, after selling USD $68 million worth of stocks on Tuesday, foreign investors have now sold more stocks than they bought in 2013. From its record high of 5,214 on 20 May 2013, the IHSG has now fallen 15 percent. After the speech of Ben Bernanke one week ago (19/06), investors have been pulling out money from emerging markets, including Indonesia.
