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Berita Hari Ini Mining
On 6 July 2023 Indonesia Investments released the June 2023 edition of its monthly report. In the report we present a number of analyses of topics (all related to the economy, politics and social matters) that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of June 2023.
The Indonesian government plans to allow an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders say that this would considerably strengthen the investment climate in Indonesia's mining sector, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.
In the first three quarters of 2018, Indonesia's total national coal production reached 319.08 million tons, or nearly 63 percent of the government's full-year 2018 target (set at 506.9 million tons), according to the latest data from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.
The Indonesian government took another major step forward in becoming the majority stakeholder (through state-owned mining holding company Indonesia Asahan Aluminium, or Inalum) of mining giant Freeport Indonesia that operates the lucrative Grasberg mine in Papua.
After the much publicized signing by the Indonesian government and US mining giant Freeport McMoRan of the Heads of Agreement regarding the sale of a stake in Freeport Indonesia (the operator of the lucrative Grasberg mine in Papua) on 12 July 2018, we have not heard much about the deal that is valued at USD $3.85 billion.
Although Astra International, one of Indonesia's biggest diversified conglomerates, has been affected by subdued car sales in Indonesia in recent years, the company remains comfortably within the top ten of biggest listed companies in terms of market capitalization on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Local banks in Indonesia remain hesitant to disburse loans to companies that are engaged in Indonesia's mining sector due to the high degree of bad debt in this sector. Hence, credit disbursement to the country's mining sector continues to shrink. On the one hand, it is positive that Indonesia's banking sector becomes less dependent on the volatile movement of mining commodity prices.
Coal demand remains high, particularly due to robust demand from China, the world's largest coal importer. This brings the projection for the full-year 2018 coal price to the range of USD $98.50 - $107.00 per metric ton. So far this year the coal price (ICE NewCastle Coal January 2018) surged around 4 percent, while in full-year 2017 the price had surged 57.09 percent.
The rising coal price is a great boost for the corporate earnings of coal mining companies as well as the share prices of those companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Newcastle Coal Futures (January 2018 delivery) touched USD $97.10 per metric ton at the end of last week, up 26 percent so far this year. Meanwhile, prices of energy commodities are expected to rise further in the remainder of the year.
Production and sales of heavy equipment in Indonesia is recovering more markedly in 2017 on the back of rising activity in the country's mining and construction sectors. Between 2012 and 2015 sales of heavy equipment plunged sharply in Indonesia. In 2016 a modest recovery was seen. This year, the recovery of Indonesia's heavy equipment sector is progressing at a faster pace.
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Sales of United Tractors, the largest distributor of heavy equipment in Indonesia and part of the Astra Group, continue to climb in 2017. In fact, the management of United Tractors now expects full-year 2017 sales to exceed their initial forecast. Sara Loebis, Corporate Secretary of United Tractors, said the company has therefore raised its forecast for full-year heavy equipment unit sales from 3,000 to 3,200 units.
The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Indonesia's mining and excavation sector has risen drastically over the past year. Moreover, there seems few room for an improvement of the NPL ratio in this sector on the short term because mining and excavation companies are expected to remain amid tough conditions in the remainder of the year. The NPL ratio is a key indicator for measuring bad loans.
Overall, low crude oil prices are problematic for stock markets as low prices indicate the world economy is not expanding on full throttle. This curbs investors' risk appetite. Particularly those companies that are active in the oil industry (or in related industries) will likely face declining share prices. However, there are also positive effects of low oil prices. For example consumers' purchasing power should improve because prices at the gas pump are lower, while some companies can curb operational costs. Hence, consumer and transportation stocks should actually benefit from low oil prices.
Reportedly, the government of Indonesia will hand Freeport Indonesia a temporary export permit for copper concentrate shipments, hence being able to bypass (for the moment) Indonesia's controversial ban on mineral ore exports. Freeport Indonesia, the local unit of US mining giant Freeport McMoRan, has been unable to export copper concentrate for the past three months, thus missing out on about USD $1 billion in revenue. Due to the drop in exports, mining activities at the Grasberg mine in Papua fell drastically, giving rise to concern about layoffs.
An interesting story was released on Bloomberg Markets Asia on Wednesday (29/03) about the sliding role of commodities in the Indonesian economy and the need for Southeast Asia's largest economy to find a new growth engine (or better: several new growth engines) that will take the country to economic growth levels of +7 percent year-on-year (y/y) as once pledged by Indonesian President Joko Widodo during his presidential campaign in 2014.
The Indonesian Mining Institute (IMI) is concerned about foreign perceptions of Indonesia's mining sector. According to the Fraser Institute, a Toronto-based public policy research and educational organization, Indonesia now ranks lowest in terms of the "state of the investment climate in the mining sector across the world". A new survey, conducted by the Canadian think-tank, shows that Indonesia's recently introduced government policies (stemming from the New Mining Law) that affect the activities in the mining sector has seriously undermined foreigners' confidence in a conducive investment climate in Indonesia's mining sector.
Uncertainty about the continuation of the company's copper concentrate exports could imply that Freeport Indonesia needs to terminate operations at the Grasberg mine in Papua. Currently, shipments of copper concentrate from the mine to the smelter in Gresik (East Java) have ceased, while the company's storage facilities are full to the brim. Part of workers at the Grasberg mine have been sent home as the processing plant has not been producing any concentrate since Friday (10/02).
State-controlled, yet listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, tin producer and exporter Timah is expected to experience improving corporate earnings in 2017 supported by recovering production volumes and the rising trend of global commodity prices. Danareksa Sekuritas expects the price of refined tin to rise 12.4 percent to USD $20,000 per ton this year, followed by a further rise to USD $21,000 per ton in 2018. Meanwhile, Danareksa Sekuritas also expects Timah's production volume to rise around 25 percent (y/y) to 28,000 tons this year (slightly below the company's target of 30,000 tons).
On Thursday (12/01) the government of Indonesia said it eased regulations concerning the controversial ban on exports of metal ore and concentrates of other minerals. Based on the New Mining Law that was revealed in 2009, Indonesian shipments of mineral ore would be banned starting from January 2014. This policy was designed in order to boost the development of domestic processing facilities (smelters) and become an exporter of value-added mining products (hence becoming less vulnerable to volatile prices of raw materials).
Chances are big that Freeport Indonesia will conduct an initial public offering (IPO) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange to comply with the divestment requirement. Freeport Indonesia, the local unit of US-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, operates the vast Grasberg mine in Papua. This mine is the world's largest gold mine and third-largest copper mine. The Indonesian government's divestment requirement is one the demands for starting contract extension negotiations in 2019.
