Dengan akan berakhirnya tahun 2015, maka ada baiknya kita melihat tantangan yang dihadapi Indonesia tahun ini dan apakah tantangan ini akan tetap ada di tahun 2016. Singkatnya, kami percaya bahwa tantangan eksternal yang ada saat ini akan bertahan di tahun yang baru. Pertumbuhan ekonomi negara ini diproyeksikan melaju menjadi 5,3% pada basis year-on year (y/y) pada tahun 2016 dari perkiraan 4,7% (y/y) pada tahun 2015 (tahun kelima berturut-turut perlambatan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto), tetapi pertumbuhan ini terutama disebabkan oleh peningkatan pengeluaran pemerintah.

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The House of Representatives of Indonesia (DPR) is scheduled to meet on Thursday (22/10) to discuss the government's revised 2016 macroeconomic assumptions. In August 2015, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had unveiled the government's draft 2016 State Budget. However, due to overly optimistic assumptions, there has been the need for several revisions.

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Indonesia’s trade balance surplus widened to USD $1.33 billion in July 2015, improving markedly from the USD $528 million trade surplus in the preceding month and being much higher than expectations of analysts. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s July exports fell 19.2 percent (y/y) to USD $11.4 billion, while imports plunged 28.4 percent (y/y) to USD $10.1 billion. The trade surplus is positive as it supports a narrowing current account deficit (which stood at 2.1 percent of GDP in Q2-2015).

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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Setelah kecewa melihat pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) yang hanya 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, para investor merasa kuatir dengan pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia pada sisa tahun ini. Pertumbuhan PDB yang lemah disebabkan oleh lemahnya performa ekspor (akibat lambatnya perekonomian global dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditi), tingkat suku bunga Indonesia yang tinggi (mengurangi daya beli masyarakat dan expansi bisnis oleh perusahaan lokal), dan lambatnya belanja pemerintah.

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Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q1-2015 dicatat 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Meskipun telah diprediksi bahwa angka pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia akan jatuh di bawah batas 5%, perlambatan ini lebih buruk dari dugaan awal. Suryamin, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), menyatakan pada awal hari ini (05/05) bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat mencapai level terendah selama lima tahun akibat lemahnya ekspor (hasil dari berkurangnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di pasar ekspor) dan rendahnya harga minyak mentah dunia.

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Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s remains the only credit rating agency among the big three to maintain its BB+/stable rating on Indonesia’s sovereign credit (which is one notch below investment grade). Both Fitch Ratings (BBB-/stable) and Moody’s Investor Service (Baa3/stable) had already brought Indonesia back to investment grade in 2011 and 2012. Standard & Poor’s has been reluctant to raise Indonesia’s status as it wants to see more results from the country’s economic policy reforms.

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OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), sebuah lembaga internasional yang bekerja sama dengan pemerintah negara-negara untuk memahami faktor-faktor yang mendorong perubahan ekonomi, sosial, dan lingkungan hidup, berpandangan positif mengenai prospek perekonomian di Indonesia. Namun, institusi ini juga menekankan bahwa Indonesia perlu melaksanakan pekerjaan rumahnya dalam rangka mendapatkan keuntungan optimal dari bonus demografi negara dan bergabung dengan kelompok negara berpendapatan menengah ke atas.

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Bank Dunia menerbitkan laporan terbarunya mengenai Perekonomian Indonesia pada tanggal 18 Maret 2015. Dalam laporan yang berjudul 'High Expectations’ ini Bank Dunia memuji perkembangan reformasi awal di beberapa area kunci seperti subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan juga bertambahnya tindakan-tindakan reformasi kunci yang sedang dalam proses. Ini membangkitkan harapan yang tinggi mengenai perekonomian Indonesia pada jangka waktu menengah maupun panjang. Namun, Pemerintah juga menghadapi halangan-halangan untuk menerapkan reformasi struktural lebih lanjut karena prospek pertumbuhan yang menurun.

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International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference, with the theme “An Agenda for Change”, on Thursday 5 March 2015. This year’s theme refers to the ongoing process of reform amid political, economic and social challenges in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. High government officials, leading economists and investors will take part in this conference. For example, Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro is scheduled to make the opening keynote speech.

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At the Indonesia Investment Summit 2015, organized in Jakarta on 15-16 January 2015, Bank Indonesia official Arief Mahmud presented several views of the central bank on the current Indonesian economy and the global and domestic challenges that it faces. As is widely known, Indonesia has been experiencing a process of slowing economic growth since 2011 due to sluggish global economic growth in combination with the rebalancing of the domestic economy. However, growth is expected to accelerate in 2015.

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Takehiko Nakao, President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow 5.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2015, lower than the target that has been set by the Indonesian government in the 2015 State Budget (5.8 percent y/y). Nakao is slightly less optimistic as he expects a slowdown in government spending this year. On a positive note, Nakao’s forecast implies a sharp improvement in Indonesia’s economic growth in 2015 from an estimated 5.1 percentage point (y/y) GDP growth in 2014.

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Moody's Investors Service, a global bond credit rating agency, assigned a definitive rating of Baa3 (stable outlook) to Indonesian government notes maturing in 2025 and 2045 (these notes are issued under the government’s global medium-term note program). Moody’s said in a press release on Tuesday (13/01) that the Baa3 government bond rating is supported by the country’s narrow fiscal deficits, low public indebtedness, healthy economic growth prospects, and the large size of Indonesia’s economy.

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The central bank of Indonesia recently issued new regulations (Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 16/21/PBI/2014 and External Circular No. 16/24/DKEM) that aim to safeguard Indonesia’s financial fundamentals. These new regulations, which are an improvement of Bank Indonesia Regulation No. 16/20/PBI/2014 dated Oct. 28 2014, force Indonesian non-bank corporations to apply prudent fiscal management regarding foreign-denominated debt. Bank Indonesia felt these rules are needed as privately-held foreign debt rises continuously.

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Indonesia’s inflation reached 2.46 percent month-to-month (m/m) in December 2014 due to the impact of higher subsidized fuel prices implemented on 18 November 2014. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesia’s inflation was recorded at 8.36 percent, slightly lower than the result in 2013 (8.38 percent). Inflation has been high in 2013 and 2014 as the Indonesian government raised prices of subsidized fuels in both years in an attempt to relieve fiscal pressures brought about by costly oil imports.

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A team of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), led by David Cowen (advisor at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department), visited several Indonesian cities in the first three weeks of December 2014 to conduct research on the economic fundamentals of Southeast Asia’s largest economy. This research included the study of recent macroeconomic developments as well as the formulation of prognosis scenarios for the short and middle term. The IMF team held discussions with the government, Bank Indonesia, private entrepreneurs and scholars.

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External debt of Indonesia grew at a pace of 10.7 percent year-on-year (y/y) in October 2014, slightly slower than the 11.2 percentage point (y/y) growth pace in the previous month, according to a statement of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia). Total outstanding external debt of Indonesia reached USD $294.5 billion in October (from USD $292.3 billion in the previous month). While growth of public sector external debt slowed in October, private sector external debt accelerated.

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In order to avoid the middle-income trap and join the ranks of the high income countries by 2030 (reaching a per capita income level of at least USD $12,500), Indonesia needs to raise economic growth beyond the 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) level. If the current gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is maintained (between 5 and 6 percent y/y) then it will take another decade to break from the middle income trap and become a high income country. However, GDP growth in 2014 is projected at a bleak 5.2 percent (y/y).

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International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Indonesia’s sovereign rating at BBB-/stable outlook (investment grade). Baradita Katoppo, President Director of Indonesia’s Fitch Ratings branch, said that the firm is positive about the country’s financial fundamentals and prudent fiscal policy as the central bank has showed to prefer stability over growth, resulting in slowing credit growth and rising foreign exchange reserves in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. Economic growth is expected to fall to 5.1 percent (y/y) in 2014.

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Non-bank corporations in Indonesia that hold external (foreign-denominated) debt will be forced to hedge their foreign exchange holdings against the Indonesian rupiah with a ratio of 20 percent in the period 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2015 in an effort to limit risks stemming from increased private sector external debt. At end-August 2014, privately-held foreign debt stood at USD $156.2 billion (53.8 percent of the country’s total external debt), increasing three-fold from end-2005 and thus jeopardizing macroeconomic stability.

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