Dengan akan berakhirnya tahun 2015, maka ada baiknya kita melihat tantangan yang dihadapi Indonesia tahun ini dan apakah tantangan ini akan tetap ada di tahun 2016. Singkatnya, kami percaya bahwa tantangan eksternal yang ada saat ini akan bertahan di tahun yang baru. Pertumbuhan ekonomi negara ini diproyeksikan melaju menjadi 5,3% pada basis year-on year (y/y) pada tahun 2016 dari perkiraan 4,7% (y/y) pada tahun 2015 (tahun kelima berturut-turut perlambatan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto), tetapi pertumbuhan ini terutama disebabkan oleh peningkatan pengeluaran pemerintah.

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The House of Representatives of Indonesia (DPR) is scheduled to meet on Thursday (22/10) to discuss the government's revised 2016 macroeconomic assumptions. In August 2015, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had unveiled the government's draft 2016 State Budget. However, due to overly optimistic assumptions, there has been the need for several revisions.

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Indonesia’s trade balance surplus widened to USD $1.33 billion in July 2015, improving markedly from the USD $528 million trade surplus in the preceding month and being much higher than expectations of analysts. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia’s July exports fell 19.2 percent (y/y) to USD $11.4 billion, while imports plunged 28.4 percent (y/y) to USD $10.1 billion. The trade surplus is positive as it supports a narrowing current account deficit (which stood at 2.1 percent of GDP in Q2-2015).

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Beberapa institusi internasional merevisi turun proyeksi mereka untuk pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia di 2015 karena investor asing telah kecewa dengan performa pemerintah Indonesia yang baru, sementara gambaran perekonomian global tetap jauh dari membaik. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Credit Suisse dan Nomura Holdings semuanya memotong proyeksi pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia tahun ini menjadi di bawah batasan 5% (year-on-year). Tahun lalu pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia menyentuh titik terendah selama lima tahun terakhir yaitu 5,02% di basis year-on-year (y/y).

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Setelah kecewa melihat pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) yang hanya 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y) di kuartal 1 tahun 2015, para investor merasa kuatir dengan pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia pada sisa tahun ini. Pertumbuhan PDB yang lemah disebabkan oleh lemahnya performa ekspor (akibat lambatnya perekonomian global dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditi), tingkat suku bunga Indonesia yang tinggi (mengurangi daya beli masyarakat dan expansi bisnis oleh perusahaan lokal), dan lambatnya belanja pemerintah.

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Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q1-2015 dicatat 4,71% pada basis year-on-year (y/y). Meskipun telah diprediksi bahwa angka pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia akan jatuh di bawah batas 5%, perlambatan ini lebih buruk dari dugaan awal. Suryamin, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), menyatakan pada awal hari ini (05/05) bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat mencapai level terendah selama lima tahun akibat lemahnya ekspor (hasil dari berkurangnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di pasar ekspor) dan rendahnya harga minyak mentah dunia.

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Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s remains the only credit rating agency among the big three to maintain its BB+/stable rating on Indonesia’s sovereign credit (which is one notch below investment grade). Both Fitch Ratings (BBB-/stable) and Moody’s Investor Service (Baa3/stable) had already brought Indonesia back to investment grade in 2011 and 2012. Standard & Poor’s has been reluctant to raise Indonesia’s status as it wants to see more results from the country’s economic policy reforms.

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OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), sebuah lembaga internasional yang bekerja sama dengan pemerintah negara-negara untuk memahami faktor-faktor yang mendorong perubahan ekonomi, sosial, dan lingkungan hidup, berpandangan positif mengenai prospek perekonomian di Indonesia. Namun, institusi ini juga menekankan bahwa Indonesia perlu melaksanakan pekerjaan rumahnya dalam rangka mendapatkan keuntungan optimal dari bonus demografi negara dan bergabung dengan kelompok negara berpendapatan menengah ke atas.

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Bank Dunia menerbitkan laporan terbarunya mengenai Perekonomian Indonesia pada tanggal 18 Maret 2015. Dalam laporan yang berjudul 'High Expectations’ ini Bank Dunia memuji perkembangan reformasi awal di beberapa area kunci seperti subsidi bahan bakar minyak dan juga bertambahnya tindakan-tindakan reformasi kunci yang sedang dalam proses. Ini membangkitkan harapan yang tinggi mengenai perekonomian Indonesia pada jangka waktu menengah maupun panjang. Namun, Pemerintah juga menghadapi halangan-halangan untuk menerapkan reformasi struktural lebih lanjut karena prospek pertumbuhan yang menurun.

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International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference, with the theme “An Agenda for Change”, on Thursday 5 March 2015. This year’s theme refers to the ongoing process of reform amid political, economic and social challenges in Southeast Asia’s largest economy. High government officials, leading economists and investors will take part in this conference. For example, Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro is scheduled to make the opening keynote speech.

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It seems clear now how market conditions will be until the end of the year. Two important foreign issues - the US Federal Reserve's tapering of quantitative easing (QE3) as well as the US debt ceiling issue which resulted in a shutdown as the Democrats and Republicans failed to come to an agreement on the country's federal budget - and various economic data from Indonesia (inflation and the trade balance) have provided some more insight into the matter. I will discuss each topic one by one below.

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After three months of high monthly inflation rates, Indonesia's inflation eased in September due to falling prices of food, transportation, communications and financial services after the Muslim celebrations of Idul Fitri, which always cause a spike in inflation, have passed. In September 2013, Indonesia posted deflation of 0.35 percent. It was the first time in 12 years that the country posted deflation in this month. The annual inflation rate eased to 8.40 percent from 8.79 percent in August 2013.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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The slowdown of Indonesia's economic growth is expected to continue into the third quarter of 2013. The Indonesian government predicts that economic growth will fall below the GDP growth figure realized in the second quarter (5.8 percent). Acting Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Bambang Brodjonegoro stated that the main factor that causes the country's slowing economic growth in Q3-2013 is reduced household consumption. Domestic consumption in Indonesia accounts for about 55 percent of the country's GDP growth.

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Starting from May 2013, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG) has been on a weakening (bearish) trend inflicted by various reasons. First, in early May, Standard & Poor's downgraded Indonesia's credit rating due to the government's hesitancy to slash fuel subsidies. Then, the Federal Reserve started to speculate about ending its quantitative easing program. Capital outflows that followed indicated the vulnerable state of the Indonesian economy. Moreover, the controversial hike in fuel prices in late-June resulted in high inflation.

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According to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), domestic cement sales have fallen 5.8 percent to 3.3 million tons in August 2013 (from the same month last year). Being an important indicator of economic expansion (as cement sales inform about the development of property and infrastructure projects in the country), these lower cement sales confirm the slowing pace of economic growth in Indonesia. Compared to July 2013, cement sales in Indonesia fell by a massive 32 percent.

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In its most recent report regarding Indonesia's economy, the World Bank states that high logistic costs form a serious impediment to the country's economic growth. The report, titled Annual Logistics Report, is compiled by Bandung Institute of Technology’s Research Center for Logistics and Supply Chains, the Indonesian Logistics Association (ALI), the STC Group, Panteia Research Institute, and the World Bank Indonesia Office. The report provides an analysis and overview of the progress made in tackling the problem of logistics in Indonesia.

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In recent weeks, Indonesia has to cope with a large amount of negative publicity as large capital outflows from the country's financial markets occurred, partly due to weak economic results regarding the current account balance, inflation and the the rupiah. Interest rates are rising, thus eroding people's purchasing power and consequently curbing economic growth. However, the Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014, released by World Economic Forum, contained a positive outcome for Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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According to global credit rating and research agency Fitch Ratings, Indonesia's major banks are robust against the rupiah currency slide due to their low unhedged foreign currency exposure, strong loss-absorption cushions and - in some cases - foreign ownership. The slowdown in the economy will weigh on these (rated) banks' operating environment, but is unlikely to damage their credit profiles to any great extent. Below we provide Fitch Ratings' report. This report can also be accessed on their website.

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HSBC's latest release of the Indonesia Manufacturing PMI did not paint a positive picture as Indonesia's manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted sharply in August 2013. The index declined to a 15-month low amid a contraction of output, new orders and export business. Payroll numbers fell at the fastest rate in the history of the HSBC survey. The August index stood at 48.5, down from 50.7 in July 2013, and marks the fourth consecutive month of decline. A reading below 50.0 indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

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