Pemerintah Indonesia meneruskan perjuangan mereka untuk meringankan kekuatiran masyarakat tentang dampak dari rupiah yang lemah pada perekonomian Indonesia. Bahkan, Pemerintah menekankan bahwa rupiah yang lemah akan berdampak positif pada neraca perdagangan dan neraca transaksi berjalan karena produk-produk ekspor Indonesia menjadi lebih kompetitif. Selama satu minggu ini, rupiah melemah 1% terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sejak awal 2015, rupiah telah jatuh 4,4% terhadap dollar AS, karenanya menjadi salah satu mata uang di negara-negara berkembang Asia dengan performa terburuk di tahun ini.

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Ketika nilai tukar rupiah jatuh di bawah batasan yang menguatirkan yaitu Rp 13,000 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada hari Rabu (05/03), baik Menteri Keuangan Indonesia Bambang Brodjonegoro dan Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) mengatakan bahwa tidak perlu panik karena performa rupiah terhadap dollar AS masih sejalan dengan performa mata uang-mata uang lain terhadap dollar AS. Berdasarkan pada Bloomberg Dollar Index, nilai rupiah telah melemah 0,28% menjadi Rp 13,028 pada pukul 13:35 Waktu Indonesia Barat (WIB).

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Nilai tukar rupiah melemah 0,79% menjadi Rp 12.932 per dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) menurut Bloomberg Dollar Index pada hari Jumat (27/02), level terendah sejak akhir 2008, setelah bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) menyatakan tidak berencana melakukan terlalu banyak intervensi untuk mendukung rupiah. Bank Indonesia (BI) menyatakan tidak memiliki level target untuk rupiah dan tidak akan melawan pasar. Statemen ini merupakan sinyal-sinyal bahwa BI nyaman dengan rupiah yang lemah demi memperbaiki neraca transaksi berjalan.

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The benchmark stock index of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index, abbreviated JCI or IHSG) posted a series of consecutive record high closes during the past week, primarily on the central bank’s (Bank Indonesia) decision to cut its key interest rate (BI rate) by 25 basis points to 7.50 percent, investors’ positive outlook on Indonesian companies’ corporate earnings in 2015 and expectation that the Eurozone’s quantitative easing program will offset the negative impact of monetary tightening in the USA.

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One day after the surprise interest rate cut by Indonesia’s central bank, Indonesian stocks surge to a new record level led by interest rate sensitive stocks (such as financial institutions, construction firms and property firms) while the rupiah and government bonds are weakening. Yesterday (17/02), Bank Indonesia shocked markets by lowering its key interest rate (BI rate) and deposit facility rate (Fasbi) by 25 basis points, each, to 7.50 percent and 5.50 percent, respectively. Easing monetary policy is back in fashion among the region’s central banks.

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Indonesia posted a USD $709.4 million trade surplus in January 2015 according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released on Monday (16/02). Although the surplus is higher than expected and thus has a positive impact on the country’s trade and current account balances, the data also indicated that exports fell 8.09 percent year-on-year (y/y) to USD $13.30 billion signalling continued weakening global demand for Indonesian exports. Meanwhile, Indonesian imports shrank by 15.6 percent (y/y) to USD $12.59 billion.

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On 15 February 2015, Indonesia Investments released the latest edition of its newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on our website in the last seven days. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as the latest current account figures, foreign exchange risks, foreign ownership in the banking sector, biodiesel prices, investments in the cement industry, the Cilamaya port tender, and more.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on Friday (13/02) that Indonesia’s current account deficit - the broadest measure of trade in goods and services - improved to 2.81 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), or USD $6.2 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2014 (from a revised 2.99 percent of GDP in the preceding quarter). The full-year 2014 deficit amounted to USD $26.2 billion, equivalent to 2.95 percent of GDP from a (revised) deficit of USD $29.1 billion (3.18 percent of GDP) in 2013.

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Nilai tukar rupiah Indonesia turun tajam pada hari Kamis (12/02). Pada pukul 12:10 siang waktu setempat wilayah Jakarta, rupiah melemah 1.11 persen menjadi Rp 12,865 per dolar AS (Bloomberg Dollar Index). Para pelaku pasar semakin khawatir dengan masalah utang Yunani dan skenario keluarnya negara itu dari Eurozone terus bereaksi dengan menjual aset pasar-pasar berkembang untuk mendapatkan safe haven seperti dolar AS. Kemarin, (11/02), para menteri keuangan Eurozone tidak mencapai kesepakatan tentang masalah utang Yunani.

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Benedict Bingham, Senior Resident Representative untuk Indonesia di International Monetary Fund (IMF), memperkirakan bahwa bank sentral Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) akan terus berkomitmen pada kebijakan moneter yang lebih ketat dalam upaya untuk menjaga fundamental fiskal nasional di tengah tekanan eksternal. Terlepas dari pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lamban, kenaikan suku bunga di AS (tahun ini) diperkirakan mempengaruhi Indonesia karena akan mendorong aliran keluar modal dari pasar-pasar berkembang.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its recent appreciating trend on Monday (17/02). Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the currency strengthened 0.39 percent to IDR 11,785 per US dollar at 16:00 local Jakarta time. Main reason for this renewed confidence in the rupiah is Indonesia's current account deficit, which eased significantly by the end of 2013. According to Bank Indonesia, the deficit eased from 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2013 to 1.98 percent of GDP in Q4-2013.

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The current account deficit of Indonesia is expected to ease further in the first quarter of 2014 due to a possible slowdown of imports according to Deputy Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro. This slowdown is estimated to be caused by the implementation of Indonesia's higher income tax on the import of durable consumer goods, effective from January 2014. However, the deficit will not ease markedly from the USD $4 billion deficit (equivalent to 1.98 percent of the country's gross domestic product) recorded in the fourth quarter of 2013.

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The weakening Dow Jones Index on Wednesday (12/02) caused negative market sentiments in Asia the following day. Most Asian indices, including Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), were down. Not even the announcement that Bank Indonesia decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent was able to push the IHSG back in the green zone. Investors probably already anticipated the central bank's decision as it was in line with the market's expectation.

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At Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors’ Meeting today (13/02), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent as well as the interest rates on the Lending Facility and Deposit Facility at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. The policy is consistent with the tight monetary policy stance currently adopted in order to steer inflation back towards its target corridor of 4.5±1 percent in 2014 and 4±1 percent in 2015, as well as to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level.

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As companies' financial results of 2013 slowly start to be released, two reports - so far - have raised eyebrows due to significant declines in net profit. These are publicly listed, but majority state-owned, airline Garuda Indonesia and fully state-owned electricity firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). Both companies felt the impact of the sharply depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate. The currency fell over 21 percent against the US dollar in 2013 due to capital outflows amid looming US tapering and current account deficit concerns.

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In 2013, Indonesia experienced a rough year in terms of stock trading. The world was shocked by Ben Bernanke’s speech in late May 2013 in which he hinted at an end to the Federal Reserve’s large monthly USD $85 billion bond-buying program known as quantitative easing. Through this program, cheap US dollars found their way to lucrative yet riskier assets in emerging economies, including Indonesia. But when the end of the program was in sight, the market reacted by pulling billions of US dollars from emerging market bonds and equities.

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ICRA Indonesia, an independent credit rating agency and subsidiary of ICRA Ltd. (associate of Moody's Investors Service), publishes a monthly newsletter which provides an update on the financial and economic developments in Indonesia of the last month. In the January 2014 edition, a number of important topics that are monitored include Indonesia's inflation rate, the trade balance, the current account deficit, the IDR rupiah exchange rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Below is an excerpt of the newsletter:

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On Wednesday (05/02), Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the economy of Indonesia expanded 5.78 percent in 2013. This result implies that in 2013 Indonesia experienced the slowest pace of GDP growth since its 4.63 percentage growth in 2009. However, this slowing growth was basically self-inflicted as both the Indonesian government and central bank (Bank Indonesia) used various monetary and fiscal policies to curb economic expansion in order to tackle several financial issues.

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In the last month of 2013, Indonesia's trade balance posted a surplus of USD $1.52 billion, almost twice as high as economists had previously predicted. The December surplus implied Indonesia's third consecutive monthly trade surplus and fifth monthly trade surplus in full year 2013. However, considering the whole year, the trade balance still posted a deficit of USD $4.06 billion in 2013 as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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On Wednesday 5 February 2014, Statistics Indonesia (BPS, a non-departmental government institute) is expected to release Indonesia's official GDP growth figure for the year 2013. It is estimated that the outcome will be the lowest GDP growth figure since 2009 when Southeast Asia's largest economy grew 4.6 percent after feeling the impact of the global financial crisis. In 2013, again, Indonesia felt the negative influence of external troubles. And in combination with domestic factors, Indonesia's economic growth is expected to be around 5.7 percent in 2013.

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