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Berita Hari Ini COVID-19
In August 2020 we were positively surprised as Indonesia’s manufacturing activity managed to expand (after experiencing five straight months of contraction) despite the country still being in the middle of the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis.
For the third straight month Indonesia experienced mild deflation. According to the latest data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia’s consumer price index (CPI) showed deflation of 0.05 percent month-on-month (m/m) in September 2020.
It took a while – in fact a couple of months – but the Indonesian government has now finally become realistic about its forecast for economic growth in (the remainder of) 2020. Obviously, it had no other option after the country’s Q2-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) data had been released in August. These data showed a 5.32 percent year-on-year (y/y) contraction for Southeast Asia’s largest economy in Q2-2020.
The continuously rising number of confirmed novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in the province of DKI Jakarta, which is the political and economic heart of Indonesia, has made the DKI Jakarta Provincial Government decide to impose a new local lockdown (heavy social and business restrictions, locally known as 'PSBB'). Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan confirmed that the lockdown will be re-imposed per Monday 14 September 2020.
As we predicted last month, August 2020 brought mild deflation to Indonesia. Based on the latest data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), the consumer price index posted deflation of 0.05 percent month-on-month (m/m).
August is typically a special month for Indonesia because on the 17th of August the nation commemorates its Independence Day. Unfortunately, however, celebrations had to be quite sober this year as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is still spreading across the country.
On Wednesday (02/09/2020) Indonesia Investments released the August 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'In Search of a Vaccine', we discuss the efforts that are being made in Indonesia to deliver a safe and reliable vaccine for the COVID-19 virus and provide an overview of Indonesia's pharmaceutical industry.
Based on the latest data from the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), total investment realization in Indonesia fell 4.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2020 (these data do not include investment in the banking and oil and gas sectors). The decline is attributed to the COVID-19 crisis that has paralyzed the global and domestic economies.
While Indonesia’s manufacturing activity has remained contracting in July 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 crisis that seriously disrupts consumption, production and trade flows, the positive news is that the rate of contraction eased significantly.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic brings unusual times for any country, especially in terms of the economic and social environments. In the case of Indonesia it has triggered historically low headline inflation, namely 1.54 percent year-on-year (y/y) after July 2020 brought deflation of -0.10 percent month-on-month (m/m).
Artikel Terbaru COVID-19
It is now about one month after the national Idul Fitri holiday when millions of city-dwellers travelled by air, road, rail and water back to their places of origin to spend a couple of days with their (extended) families. The positive news is that this huge movement of people did not lead to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia.
Despite the ongoing challenges (that mainly originate from abroad), there is reason to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic growth in 2022 as the COVID-19 threat has eased.
On 7 February 2022, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the final quarter of 2021.
In January 2022 Indonesian Minister for Coordinating Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the Indonesian government aims to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in the first quarter of 2022. Just like the Philippines and Myanmar, Indonesia is still to ratify the RCEP even though this agreement already took effect per 1 January 2022.
Last month we discussed the Omicron variant that had officially arrived in Indonesia in late-November 2021.
In the first month of 2022, we detected some positive signs, both abroad and at home (in Indonesia) as there is growing evidence that the Omicron variant is encouraging strong herd immunity around the world, while not making too many people ill to the extent that they require hospitalization.
In the last week of December 2021, Perry Warjiyo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), sent a strong signal to markets that the benchmark interest rate of Indonesia (seven-day reverse repo rate) will not be raised before Q3-2022. This is much later than we initially expected.
There are reasons to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2021. Obviously, the underlying reason being that new confirmed COVID-19 infections have not been far from zero in Indonesia throughout the final quarter of the year. As a consequence, the government of Indonesia did not need to impose tough restrictions, hence economic activity is allowed to blossom.
Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index, or IHSG) grew 10.08 percent in full-year 2021, a good performance after a volatile and highly uncertain 2020 when the COVID-19 crisis emerged. At around 6,580 points on the first trading day of 2022, the index remains at near-record high territory (with the record being set recently, in mid-November 2021, at around 6,750 points).
In felt like a real déjà vu. Shortly before writing this introduction, the World Health Organization (WHO) said it added a new variant of concern to its list of COVID-19 mutations. This new variant, which is called Omicron (B.1.1.529), is believed to stem from South Africa or Botswana, and might be more contagious than the Delta variant that has been dominant over the past 12 months or so.
