Trouble for Indonesian coal miners will not end soon as India - one of the world's leading coal consumers - is eager to boost domestic production of coal thus reducing the need for coal imports. This has given additional downward pressure on global coal prices. Over the past 11 months Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly reference price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, has been on a streak of continuously falling prices. The February 2016 rate was set at USD $50.92 per ton, a far cry from USD $111.58 per ton in February 2012.

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There remains little hope to see rebounding coal prices soon. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, fell another 4.29 percent month-to-month (m/m) to a new record low of USD $50.92 per metric ton (FOB) in February 2016 from USD $53.20 in the preceding month. Coal prices have difficulty to rise amid low crude oil and gas prices, while renewable energy sources are gaining popularity. Meanwhile, demand from China and India for Indonesian coal is falling.

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Domestic consumption of coal in Indonesia rose 14.8 percent (y/y) to 87.43 million tons in 2015 according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. This figure is considerably higher than the government's target of 70 million tons. Adhi Wibowo, Director for Coal at the Energy Ministry, said this increase is caused by higher electricity demand in domestic industries in the second half of 2015. Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal production reached 392 million tons in full-year 2015, below the government target at 425 million tons.

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Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Indonesia mengharapkan pengiriman batubara ke India meningkat pada tahun 2016, sementara ekspor batubara ke Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) diperkirakan akan menurun lebih lanjut karena ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ini sedang mengalami perlambatan (dan RRT membatasi impor batubara dengan tingkat kalori yang lebih rendah). Adhi Wibowo, Direktur Batu Bara Kementerian ESDM, mengatakan - berlawanan dengan RRT - permintaan batubara dari India tidak turun. Selain itu, India sangat tergantung pada Indonesia untuk batubara termal.

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Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA), harga referensi batubara termal yang ditetapkan oleh Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral, melemah 1,69% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 53,51 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) pada bulan Desember 2015, menyentuh level terendah baru dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai diberlakukan pada Januari 2009. Supriatna Suhala, Direktur Eksekutif Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (APBI), mengatakan harga batubara rendah disebabkan oleh banjir pasokan global dikombinasikan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang lesu.

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The coal price will have serious difficulty to rise as long as crude oil prices remain low and China's economy remains in slowdown-mode. Weak global oil prices (expected to remain below USD $40 per barrel this month) - and the strong US dollar amid looming US monetary tightening - give a bad signal to other commodities, including coal, while the world's largest energy consumer China is struggling to combat its economic slowdown implying limited global coal demand.

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Indonesia akan gagal untuk mencapai target produksi batubaranya yaitu 425 juta ton di tahun 2015 karena para penambang batubara di negara ini telah memotong produksinya kira-kira 20%. Perusahaan-perusahaan pertambangan batubara domestik memotong hasil produksi batubara karena harga batubara yang terus-menerus rendah yang menyebabkan arus kas negatif bagi banyak penambang. Harga batubara global telah menurun karena kelebihan suplai dan permintaan global yang melemah akibat lambannya pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.

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Ekspor batubara Indonesia diprediksi akan jatuh menjadi di bawah 300 juta ton di 2016 karena para penambang domestik memotong volume produksi batubara karena rendahnya harga batubara. Harga referensi batubara termal pada bulan Oktober di Indonesia (ditetapkan oleh Pemerintah) jatuh 1,4% pada basis month-to-month (m/m) menjadi 57,39 dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) per metrik ton (FOB) dan kini ada pada level terendah dalam sejarah sejak harga referensi ini mulai ditetapkan pada Januari 2009. Sementara itu, harga batubara acuan global nyaris menyentuh level terendah dalam sembilan tahun terakhir.

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Indonesia’s October benchmark thermal coal reference price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) was set at USD $57.39 per metric ton (FOB) by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, down 1.4 percent (m/m) from the preceding month and down 14.7 percent (y/y) from the same month last year. The October coal price is now at an all-time record low since the start of the government’s reference price in January 2009.

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As is widely known, coal is the most important energy source for the generation of electricity in Indonesia. Among the key reasons are that Indonesia has huge reserves of coal under its soils (hence it is relatively cheap to use coal, hence attracting plenty of private investment amid ever-growing electricity consumption in Indonesia over the past two decades) and efficient coal-fired power plant technology.

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Over the past couple of months –essentially since touching a low in August 2020– global coal prices have surged. In January 2021 coal prices were at their strongest levels in almost two years (before experiencing a mild correction in February 2021).

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By revising Indonesian Government Regulation No. 23/2010, the Indonesian government plans to provide local coal miners more certainty by allowing an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders in the mining sector argue that this would considerably strengthen the nation’s investment climate, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.

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The big Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange expect to raise their production volumes in 2018 amid rising global demand and the subsequent stronger coal price. Moreover, most local coal companies were heavily affected by bad weather in 2017 and therefore their output had been curtailed naturally, while coal prices had actually been skyrocketing since mid-2016.

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A number of listed coal mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are eager to raise production capacity amid attractive coal prices. One way to boost production capacity is through the acquisition of other coal miners. Indonesia's key thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - the monthly benchmark price that is set by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry - rose slightly to USD $94.80 per metric ton in November 2017.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.

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In the 2000s many Indonesian companies diversified their business to include coal mining (or shifting their core business to coal mining altogether) due to lucrative opportunities amid the 2000s commodities boom. However, since 2009 mining companies have had to face tough times. Especially since 2011 commodity prices have shown a declining trend and there remains little hope of a rebound on the short term as the sluggish global economic growth trend persists, particularly led by the economic slowdown in China.

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The government of Indonesia is eager to use current low coal prices as the context to push for consolidation in the country’s coal mining sector. Sudirman Said, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, announced that the government may revoke over 4,000 troubled mining licenses this month and install a better licensing system. Licenses that may be revoked are Mining Business Permits (IUPs), not the long-standing Coal Contracts of Work (PKP2B) that are held by companies such as Bumi Resources and Berau Coal Energy.

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