The World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast because of the weaker outlooks for the economies of the USA, Russia and China, as well as the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine which triggered worldwide concerns. The Washington-based institution expects to see 2.8 percent of global economic growth in 2014, far below its January 2014 estimate of 3.2 percent. However, it kept its global growth forecasts for the next two years at 3.4 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.

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According to the World Bank, China’s economic growth will moderate over the medium term as the country’s economy rebalances gradually. In 2014, GDP growth is expected to slow to 7.6 percent (year-on-year/yoy), and declining further to 7.5 percent (yoy) in 2015. The World Bank’s latest China Economic Update mentions: “The slowdown in the first quarter reflected a combination of dissipating effects of earlier measures to support economic expansion, a weak external environment, and tighter credit, especially for real estate.”

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Indonesian listed retail and consumer goods companies continued to record good corporate earnings in the first quarter of 2014. Amid robust economic growth - although having slowed to 5.21 percent in Q1-2014 - Indonesians' purchasing power is growing and the middle class is expanding rapidly. Not too long ago, the World Bank said that per year seven million people are added to Indonesia's middle class. With more money to spend, these people consume more and more consumer goods such as food, clothes and electronics.

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The government of Japan is most likely to file a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) about Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of mineral ore (UU Minerba No. 4 - 2009). Although the WTO is yet to receive a formal letter of protest, Indonesian newspaper Investor Daily reported on Friday (04/04) that Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi has already received a letter from Japan's Minister of Foreign Affairs in which the step was announced. Japan feels forced to bring the case to the WTO as its industry is affected by the ban.

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Contrary to the World Bank and Bank Indonesia that both revised down forecasts for economic growth of Indonesia in 2014, the government of Indonesia is still convinced that it can meet the target of 5.8 to 6.0 percent as has been set in the 2014 State Budget (APBN 2014). In its most recent Indonesia Economic Quarterly report, the World Bank said it expects Indonesia’s economic growth to reach 5.3 percent in 2014, while Bank Indonesia targets a 5.7 percentage growth rate.

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Inefficiencies at the Tanjung Priok port, Indonesia's main port (located in the heart of Jakarta) and which handles about two-thirds of the country's international trade, are a major cause for logistics costs in the domestic economy. Indonesia's logistics costs account for about 24 percent of GDP, thus significantly higher compared to its regional peers. The long dwell time at Tanjung Priok is one of the largest concerns, particularly as trade flows continue to grow. The average import container dwell time increased from 4.8 days in 2010 to 6.4 days in 2013.

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The World Bank's latest report discusses healthcare. Indonesia is one of many countries that aims to achieve universal health coverage for its population. However, several challenges need to be faced and overcome in order to reach this goal, which the country hopes to achieve by 2019. Although health insurance coverage has increased significantly in Indonesia over the last decade, almost 60 percent of Indonesia's population still remains without any coverage, and out-of-pocket spending remains high even among those with coverage.

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Forecasts for economic growth in Indonesia in 2014 are still optimistic. The government of Indonesia targets a 6 percent growth rate, while the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects GDP growth in the range of 5.8 to 6.2 percent. Although these forecasts clearly fall short of the target set in the country's National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) - which mentions annual GDP growth of between 6.3 and 6.8 percent - the forecasts are still rather positive given the global uncertain and volatile economic context in recent years.

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On Sunday 22 December 2013, Indonesia Investments released its latest newsletter. This free newsletter, which is sent to our subscribers once per week, contains the most important news stories from Indonesia that have been reported on during the last seven days on our website. Most of the topics involve economic matters such as a forecast of the performance of the Jakarta Composite Index, the government's fuel subsidy spending, crude palm oil exports, the initial public listing of Sido Muncul Herbal, and more.

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The unemployment rate of Indonesia is forecast to ease to 6.03 percent (7.24 million people) in 2014 from 6.25 percent (7.39 million people) in August 2013. The Indonesian government expects a reduction in the unemployment rate as the country's economic growth is assumed to grow strongly and thus will provide more job opportunities for Indonesians next year. Various institutions, including the IMF, World Bank and the Indonesian government, expect Indonesia's GDP growth in 2014 to range between 5.3 and 6.0 percent.

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The World Bank says income inequality in Indonesia is widening and as a consequence the fruits of Indonesia's economic growth over the past decade have only been enjoyed by the richest 20 percent of Indonesian society, leaving behind the remaining 80 percent of the population (or 200 million people). In its new report titled "Indonesia's Rising Divide" the World Bank states that rising inequality in society can jeopardize social cohesion, as well as political and economic stability over the long term. The report claims that inequality in Indonesia has reached a relatively high level and is climbing faster than in most of its regional peers.

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Today (22/10), the World Bank released the October 2015 edition of its flagship Indonesia Economic Quarterly, titled "In Times of Global Volatility". In the report the World Bank states that despite current ongoing global uncertainties (caused by looming monetary tightening in the USA and China's economic slowdown), which make macroeconomic management difficult in the year ahead, pro-active government action could offset the negative impact and may help to boost growth.

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Sejak akhir 2011 Indonesia telah dibebani oleh defisit transaksi berjalan struktural yang menguatirkan baik para pembuat kebijakan maupun para investor (asing). Meskipun pihak berwenang di Indonesia telah mengimplementasikan reformasi kebijakan dan penyesuaian perekonomian di beberapa tahun terakhir, defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia hanya sedikit berubah di 2015. Baik Bank Dunia maupun Bank Indonesia memprediksi bahwa defisit transaksi berjalan akan tetap berada sedikit di bawah 3% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) di 2015, sangat dekat dengan batasan yang memisahkan defisit yang sustainable dan yang unsustainable.

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World Investment Report 2015 menyatakan bahwa masuknya investasi asing langsung (FDI) ke Indonesia bertumbuh 20% year-on-year (y/y) menjadi 23 miliar dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada tahun 2014. Maka pertumbuhan FDI di Indonesia melewati pertumbuhan FDI yang dicatat di Singapura (+4% y/y menjadi 68 miliar dollar AS) dan Vietnam (+3% menjadi 9,2 miliar dollar AS), menimbulkan optimisme bahwa Indonesia - negara dengan perekonomian terbesar di Asia Tenggara - akan terus menjadi tujuan investasi yang menguntungkan di Benua Asia untuk investor asing di tahun-tahun mendatang.

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Indonesia adalah pemegang saham terbesar ke-8 di Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) yang baru saja didirikan. Kementerian Keuangan Indonesia mengumumkan di awal minggu ini bahwa Indonesia akan menginvestasikan 672,1 juta dollar AS di AIIB selama lima tahun ke depan. AIIB adalah sebuah lembaga keuangan multilateral yang baru (dipelopori oleh Republik Rakyat Tiongkok) yang menyediakan dana untuk proyek pembangunan infrastruktur di wilayah Asia Pasifik.

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Hariyadi Sukamdani, Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), expressed his concern about unemployment in Indonesia, particularly unemployment among the younger generation of Indonesians (aged between 15 and 29). Amid slowing economic growth over the past six years, various industries have been cutting employment. With roughly half of the total population below 30 years of age, Indonesia’s demographic bonus can turn into disaster if this potential workforce fails to obtain employment opportunities.

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Program Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS) telah beroperasi selama satu dekade. Selama periode ini, program BOS terus menerus diperbaiki dan mengalirkan pendanaan yang besar untuk kira-kira 43 juta sekolah dasar dan sekolah menengah pertama di Indonesia. Program BOS yang berdana besar bertujuan untuk memastikan bahwa sekolah memiliki cukup dana untuk beroperasi, mengurangi biaya pendidikan yang dibayar rumah tangga dan memperbaiki manajemen berbasis sekolah.

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Although recently having slowed, Indonesia has experienced solid economic growth over the past ten years, with the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) almost doubling between 2001 and 2012. However, robust economic growth also resulted in significant environmental degradation and accelerated depletion of Indonesia’s natural resources. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, World Bank Group Managing Director (and former Indonesian Finance Minister), emphasized that Indonesia needs to shift from a ‘brown’ to a ‘green’ growth model.

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A new World Bank report, entitled “The Double Burden of Malnutrition in Indonesia”, says that 37.2 percent of Indonesian children under the age of five - or 8.4 million children - are stunted (meaning excessively small for their age) and suffer from chronic malnutrition. As such, Indonesia has the fifth-highest level of stunting in the world. The report also states that 19.6 percent of Indonesian children under five years old (approximately 4.4 million) are underweight as a result of malnutrition. Public awareness about this issue is low in Indonesia.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report today (24/03) in which it discusses recent economic developments in Indonesia. According to the report, Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to accelerate over the two years ahead provided that the Indonesian government continues to implement structural policy reforms. Such reforms - which include the acceleration of infrastructure development, reduction of logistical costs, and enhancing budget implementation - should lead to an improvement of the investment climate.

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