11 October 2019 (closed)
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Chances of chocolate-based candy or food products becoming more expensive in the near future have grown due to the weak harvest in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. Most likely, the country will fail to fulfill sales contracts hence leading to higher global cocoa prices. In New York and London cocoa futures jumped roughly seven percent in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Indonesian cocoa exports declined 56 percent (y/y) in April 2015. The main cocoa producing regions have been struggling with bad weather and diseases.
Earlier this week industry data showed that cocoa export from Indonesia’s main cocoa growing region - the island of Sulawesi - declined 56 percent (year-on-year) to 1,719 metric tons in April 2015 on the back of weak weather conditions and diseases disturbing the cocoa trees. These conditions have been hampering Indonesian supplies for several years now. Despite efforts, the Indonesian government has failed to boost production. This may cause that Indonesia’s cocoa bean export in 2015 falls below pre-2001 levels.
The poor harvest in Ghana, caused by bad weather and lack of pesticides, means that the country will most likely fail to achieve its one million tons cocoa beans production target in the 2014/2015 season. Government sources estimate that production will be limited to roughly 700,000 tons, the weakest harvest in a long time for Ghana’s cocoa farmers. This causes serious problems for global traders and chocolate producers who rely on high quality cocoa beans.
According to the International Cocoa Organization, global consumption of cocoa will exceed production by 17,000 tons in 2015. Meanwhile, cocoa reserves have fallen by 27 percent over the past year.
Meanwhile, cocoa bean production in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, remains stable. Production is supported by abundant rainfall over the past week although farmers are still concerned about diseases (pests) damaging the beans. Although plenty of rainfall is required for the growth of cocoa pods, high rainfall also slows down the drying process of the cocoa beans.
Ivory Coast, Ghana and Indonesia are the world’s largest cocoa producers.