20 January 2022 (closed)
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On Wednesday (04/09), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report that describes a change in the current global economic dynamic as developed economies are showing signs of recovery, while growth in emerging markets is slowing down. These two developments are interrelated because stagnating developed economies from the late 2000s meant that investors started to look for lucrative assets in rapidly-growing emerging markets, including Indonesia.
Amid US economic turmoil, the central bank of the world's largest economy started its series of quantitative easing programs in order to stimulate the national economy through increasing the monetary base and keeping interest rates low. But, one side effect of the Federal Reserve's massive bond-buying program was that cheap US dollars entered emerging markets where rates were higher, thus more-or-less inflating emerging economies. In May, when the Fed announced to be considering to end its QE3 program towards the end of 2013 (implying higher US interest rates), large capital outflows from emerging markets were the result and continue up to this day. The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for 17-18 September and is expected to shed some more light on the future of QE3.
The slowdown in emerging economies, most notably China, Brazil and India, also impacts on global economic growth. As such, the IMF believes that there may be a "prolonged period of sluggish global growth" ahead.
The IMF expects that the USA will be the main driver of global economic growth in the near term because of the country's growing private demand, housing and labor markets. Europe is showing the first small steps of an economic recovery as - after six quarters of contraction - small growth occurred in the second quarter of 2013 (0.3 percent). The IMF expects that the recovery in these developed markets will result in accelerated global economic growth in 2014.