Indonesia Update: Inflation Up, Manufacturing Activity Contracts
After two straight months of deflation, Indonesia saw its consumer price index rise again in March 2015. According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded inflation of 0.17 percent month-to-month (m/m) in March. This result was in line with analysts’ projections. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, Indonesian inflation rose to 6.38 percent from the same month last year, slightly higher than the 6.29 percent (y/y) of inflation recorded in February. The country’s core inflation rose to 5.04 percent (y/y) in March.
In the first two months of 2015 Indonesia posted deflation on the back of falling fuel prices (made possible by the government’s decision to wind down generous fuel subsidies). However, last week the Indonesian government announced that prices of subsidized diesel and low-octane gasoline would be raised for April, a decision which resulted in some inflationary pressures. It is expected that these higher prices also impact on the country’s April inflation figure.
The central bank (Bank Indonesia) still expects inflation to ease to its target range of 3-5 percent (y/y) by the year end. The Indonesian government targets an inflation level of 5 percent (y/y) this year.
Inflation in Indonesia:
| Month | Monthly Growth 2013 |
Monthly Growth 2014 |
Monthly Growth 2015 |
| January | 1.03% | 1.07% | -0.24% |
| February | 0.75% | 0.26% | -0.36% |
| March | 0.63% | 0.08% | 0.17% |
| April | -0.10% | -0.02% | |
| May | -0.03% | 0.16% | |
| June | 1.03% | 0.43% | |
| July | 3.29% | 0.93% | |
| August | 1.12% | 0.47% | |
| September | -0.35% | 0.27% | |
| October | 0.09% | 0.47% | |
| November | 0.12% | 1.50% | |
| December | 0.55% | 2.46% | |
| Total | 8.38% | 8.36% | -0.44% |
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
Inflation in Indonesia 2008-2014:
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
| Inflation (annual percent change) |
9.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
Source: World Bank
HSBC Indonesia Manufacturing PMI
Today it was also announced that manufacturing activity in Indonesia contracted, reflected by a score of 46.4 points in the March 2015 index - the lowest level since the launch of this index four years ago (a score below 50.0 signals contraction in the manufacturing industry). Indonesia has now seen its manufacturing activity contract for six consecutive months, causing serious concerns about economic growth of Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Indonesia Manufacturing PMI:
Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) was down 1.10 percent to 5,458.10 at 11:52 am local Jakarta time on Wednesday (01/04) as market participants absorbed the new economic data and engaged in profit taking after the strong gains over the past couple of days. Yesterday (31/03), the Jakarta Composite Index had climbed 1.47 percent.
However, Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) appreciated 0.31 percent to IDR 13,043 per US dollar on Wednesday (01/04).
Indonesian Rupiah versus US Dollar (JISDOR):
| Source: Bank Indonesia
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