24 January 2020 (closed)
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Today's Headlines Manufacturing
For the sixth straight month manufacturing activity in Indonesia remained in the red zone. It therefore was a very disappointing second half of 2019. Moreover, it raises room for concern about Indonesia’s overall economic growth in 2019.
For the fifth straight month manufacturing activity in Indonesia remained in the red zone, implying that the fourth – and last – quarter of 2019 is bound to be a disappointing quarter in terms of manufacturing activity (possibly becoming the weakest quarter in four years). And this is certainly not a good omen for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q4-2019.
Manufacturing activity in Indonesia has been in the red zone throughout the third quarter of 2019. In fact, the performance in Q3-2019 was Indonesia’s weakest performance in terms of manufacturing activity since the last quarter of 2016.
After the ‘false start’ in the third quarter of 2019 when, in July, Indonesia’s manufacturing conditions contracted for the first time since January 2019, there is again some bad news to share. In August 2019 manufacturing conditions in Southeast Asia’s largest economy continued to contract, and even at a more rapid pace than last month.
It was not the greatest start of the 3rd quarter for Indonesian manufacturers. In fact, in July 2019, Indonesian manufacturing conditions deteriorated for the first time since January 2019. The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from a reading of 50.6 in June 2019 to 49.6 in July 2019, below the 50.0 point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
Activity in Indonesia’s manufacturing sector grew in March 2019 on the back of solid domestic demand. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) accelerated to a reading of 51.2 in March, from 50.1 in the preceding month (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). It also meant that Indonesia managed to outperform its regional peers as the average PMI in the ASEAN counties stood at 50.3 in March. Overall, survey data show a marginal expansion in Indonesia’s manufacturing economy during the first quarter of 2019.
Manufacturing activity in Indonesia contracted in January 2019. It was the first time since exactly a year ago that Indonesia’s manufacturing activity contracted. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (or PMI) fell from 51.2 in December 2018 to 49.9 in the first month of 2019, representing largely unchanged conditions in the sector.
Manufacturing activity in Indonesia continued to expand in November 2018. However, the pace of expansion slowed further, for the third straight month, and the November reading was in fact the lowest reading of the past five months.
Indonesia's manufacturing activity continued to expand in June 2018 albeit at a lower level compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from a reading of 51.7 in May to 50.3 in June (slightly above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector). Slower rises in both output and new orders were key reasons that explain the month-on-month decline.
Indonesia's manufacturing sector has seen its contribution to overall Indonesian macroeconomic growth sliding over the past two decades. The cause is the lack of new and innovative products in this sector. This is the conclusion of Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for International Development and a Professor of the Practice of Economic Development at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
Latest Columns Manufacturing
An alarming report was released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 1 October 2019. In the report the WTO notes that ongoing global trade tensions, led by tariff troubles between the United States and China, are doing harm to global economic growth in ways not seen since the financial crisis one decade ago.
Manufacturing activity in Indonesia increased in June 2019 albeit at a much slower pace than in the preceding month. Expansion in the nation’s manufacturing sector was dragged down by softer expansion in both production and new orders.
Manufacturing activity in Indonesia improved in May 2019 due to an increase in output and new orders. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.4 in April 2019 to 51.6 in the following month, its highest position in nine months (a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity).
Based on the latest data from IHS Markit, the headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell modestly to a reading of 50.5 in October 2018 (from 50.7 in the preceding month). The reading represents a marginal improvement in the health of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector.
Manufacturing activity in Indonesia expanded in September 2018. However, the pace of growth slowed compared to the preceding month. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined from August's 26-month high of 51.9 to 50.7 in September (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector).
Rising domestic demand caused Indonesia's August manufacturing activity to grow at the fastest pace in more than two years. As a result local manufacturing companies added new people to their staff. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew to 51.9 in August 2018 (up from 50.5 in the preceding month), further above the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction in terms of manufacturing activity.
Although manufacturing activity in Indonesia rose slightly in July 2018, there are a number of reasons to be concerned. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indeed grew modestly from a reading of 50.3 in June to 50.5 in July (a reading of 50.0 separates contraction from expansion in the nation's manufacturing activity). However, overall conditions remain lacklustre in Southeast Asia's largest economy.
The Indonesia Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed a slight improvement to a reading of 51.7 in May 2018, up from 51.6 in the preceding month, meaning that activity in Indonesia's manufacturing sector expanded last month (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while one below 50.0 indicates contraction). The PMI index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. This survey is closely watched as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company's performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
Indonesia's manufacturing activity improved in April 2018, touching its fastest growth pace in 22 months, on the back of strengthening domestic demand. The Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a reading of 51.6 in April 2018, up from 50.7 in the preceding month (a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction). However, business confidence towards the business outlook (for the year ahead) weakened to the lowest point since December 2012.
Indonesia's Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 50.7 in March 2018 from a reading of 51.4 in the preceding month (when manufacturing activity touched a 20-month high in Southeast Asia's largest economy). Softer expansion in output and new orders were cited as reason for slowing growth. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50.0 indicates contraction.
