Despite last week's rallying oil prices, rising stocks on Wall Street and in Europe, as well as expectation of a more gradual increase in US interest rates, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) plunged 1.23 percent on Monday (11/04). Overall, the performance of Asian stock markets was mixed reflected by stock trading in the two big economies of China and Japan. Whereas Japanese stocks fell due to the stronger yen (touching a new 17-month high against the US dollar), Chinese stocks climbed on easing worries about deflationary pressures (after China's March CPI inflation remained flat at 2.3 percent y/y).
Today it also became known that the World Bank trimmed its forecast for economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific. In its "East Asia Pacific Economic Update, April 2016: Growing Challenges" the Washington-based lender stated that it sees economic growth in East Asia and Pacific fall to 6.3 percent in 2016 (from 6.5 percent in 2015), followed by a 6.2 percentage point growth pace in 2017. This downward revision comes on the back of prolonged uncertainty about China's economic growth, low commodity prices and persistent financial market volatility. Despite China's slowdown, the World Bank says the world's second-largest economy will remain the main driver of growth in Asia this year.
East Asia and Pacific : GDP Growth Projections:
|Developing East Asia & Pacific||6.8||6.5||6.3||6.2||6.2|
Source: East Asia Pacific Economic Update, April 2016: Growing Challenges
Meanwhile, oil prices declined on Monday (11/04) on concern about next Sunday's meeting in Qatar where oil exporters will discuss the freezing of current oil production levels. The freezing of current output levels may not be enough to cause rising oil prices (among others Goldman Sachs ventilated these concerns). Such concerns ahead of the meeting will most likely cause volatile oil prices for the remainder of the week. Today, Brent crude futures fell to USD $41.67 per barrel during Asian trade after touching a three-week high on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 21 cents to USD $39.51 per barrel.
Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.08 percent to IDR 13,134 per US dollar. Bank Indonesia's benchmark rupiah rate (Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, abbreviated JISDOR) appreciated 0.27 percent to IDR 13,134 per US dollar on Monday (11/04).
Indonesian Rupiah versus US Dollar (JISDOR):| Source: Bank Indonesia