Indonesia Investments Report - January 2021 Edition: COVID-19 Crisis to Linger On?
Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 1,298,608 confirmed infections, 35,014 deaths (23 February 2021)
23 February 2021 (closed)
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On 5 February 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) of Southeast Asia’s largest economy contracted 2.19 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2020. This was less severe compared to Indonesia Investments’ outlook of -2.50 percent (y/y).
On Friday 5 February 2021 Indonesia Investments released its January 2021 report. The report zooms in on key economic, political, and social developments in Indonesia in January 2021. Special attention is given to Indonesia's COVID-19 immunization program (do we expect to see setbacks?), household consumption amid the COVID-19 restrictions, the Sriwijaya Air crash, and Indonesian demographics.
On 4 December 2020 Indonesia Investments released its November 2020 report. This report zooms in the US presidential election, and specifically the impact it may have on Indonesia-US relations. Other important topics that are analyzed in the report include the extension of Indonesia's status as a beneficiary country in the US GSP facility, the signing of the Asia-Pacific Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Indonesia's Q3-2020 economic growth.
On Thursday 5 November 2020 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 3.49 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2020. This pace of economic contraction in Q3-2020 was slightly more severe than we had predicted. Indonesia Investments had its outlook for Indonesia’s Q3-2020 economic growth at the range of -3.0 to -2.5 percent (y/y).
As expected, the Indonesian economy entered a recession in the third quarter of 2020. On Thursday (05.11.2020), Indonesia's Statistical Agency (BPS) announced that Q3-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) growth contracted by 3.49 percent year-on-year (y/y), which makes it the second consecutive quarter of negative growth.
Multinational management consultancy McKinsey & Company predicts that - by adopting digital technology - the micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) of Indonesia can contribute up to USD $140 billion to Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) by the year 2030.
It took a while – in fact a couple of months – but the Indonesian government has now finally become realistic about its forecast for economic growth in (the remainder of) 2020. Obviously, it had no other option after the country’s Q2-2020 gross domestic product (GDP) data had been released in August. These data showed a 5.32 percent year-on-year (y/y) contraction for Southeast Asia’s largest economy in Q2-2020.
On Monday (05/10/2020) Indonesia Investments released the September 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'Infrastructure in Focus', we focus on infrastructure development in Indonesia. For example we discuss how the lack of infrastructure development undermines economic and social development.
August is typically a special month for Indonesia because on the 17th of August the nation commemorates its Independence Day. Unfortunately, however, celebrations had to be quite sober this year as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is still spreading across the country.
On Wednesday (02/09/2020) Indonesia Investments released the August 2020 edition of its monthly report. In this edition, titled 'In Search of a Vaccine', we discuss the efforts that are being made in Indonesia to deliver a safe and reliable vaccine for the COVID-19 virus and provide an overview of Indonesia's pharmaceutical industry.
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It was a rough first month of the year for Indonesia. Obviously, the COVID-19 crisis persists (and there are signs to assume this crisis will persist throughout 2021) with the total number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Indonesia now having passed the one million mark.
It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.
Across the world, concern over the COVID-19 pandemic grew in September 2020 as the number of new COVID-19 cases continued to rise rapidly. Worldwide, at the end of September 2020, some 34 million people have been infected with the virus, while more than one million people have died after contracting the virus.
On 05 August 2020, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2020. These data, which were highly anticipated among analysts and policymakers, are crucial to comprehend how – and to what extend – the self-imposed social and business restrictions (made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic) have impacted on the Indonesian economy.
Good news at the start of July 2020. The World Bank upgraded Indonesia’s economic status to an ‘upper-middle income country’ (from ‘lower-middle income country’) per 1 July 2020. The key consideration for the World Bank was that Indonesia’s gross national income (GNI) per capita increased from USD $3,840 in 2018 to USD $4,050 in 2019. This means that an upgrade was needed (see the table below).
It is becoming clearer by the day that economic growth in Indonesia, in 2020, will be derailed enormously. Analysts and authoritative institutions (both international and domestic ones) have, again, cut their forecasts for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q2-2020 (decisions that obviously also have consequences for Indonesia’s full-year 2020 economic growth outlooks).
The most recent published outlooks for global economic growth and global trade are more pessimistic than their earlier versions, with the main reason being that there is no quick solution to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. On the contrary, there is a high degree of uncertainty about when business can resume as usual. And, the closer we get to 2021, the less rosy outlooks are becoming for next year.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a wide range of economic and social consequences. For example, the Indonesian economy is likely to contract this year (for the first time since 1998), while millions of Indonesians have lost their jobs over the past three months, and the majority of the country’s enterprises have seen their sales plunge.
On 5 May 2020 Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), a non-departmental government agency, released the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia for the year 2020. These data were highly anticipated as policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders are particularly interested in finding out to what extent damage has been done to the Indonesian economy by the self-imposed restrictions.
The economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are becoming increasingly clear and frightening. All the self-imposed restrictions on business and social behavior, taken by governments across the world, may protect people’s health to a significant extent, but the policy measures also have devastating economic and social consequences as economic activity nosedives, and businesses collapse. This results in unprecedented mass layoffs as well as growing poverty.
