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Despite the challenging international conditions (aggressive monetary tightening in the United States, the Russo-Ukrainian war, stagflation, a looming recession across the West, and weak growth in China) and a significant rise in the prices of subsidized fuels on 3 September 2022, Indonesia posted another solid economic growth rate.
On 7 November 2022 Indonesia Investments released the October 2022 edition of its monthly report. Our report presents in-depth and independent analyses of a range of economic, political and social subjects that have been in the news in the month of October 2022.
On 6 October 2022 Indonesia Investments released the September 2022 edition of its monthly report. In this report we analyze the latest (and most relevant) economic, political, and social news from Indonesia.
On 6 September 2022 Indonesia Investments released the August 2022 edition of its monthly report. In this report we analyze the latest (and most relevant) economic, political and social news from Indonesia.
In our July 2022 report we asked ourselves the question: ‘should we become more optimistic about Indonesia’s economic growth?’ since our outlook for the Indonesian economy in Q2-2022 fell out of tune with the general consensus held by a selection of international and domestic institutions. While our pessimistic stance served us well in 2020 and 2021 (when our projections also fell out of tune with the general consensus), this time it is our side that needs to revise its stance
On 4 August 2022 Indonesia Investments released the July 2022 edition of its monthly report. In this report we analyze the latest (and most relevant) economic, political and social news from Indonesia.
At the start of June 2022, the World Bank decided to cut its forecast for Indonesia’s economic growth in full-year 2022 from the level of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.1 percent (y/y). Do we need to be concerned?
On 5 July 2022 Indonesia Investments released the June 2022 edition of its monthly report. In this report we analyze the latest (and most relevant) economic, political and social news from Indonesia.
On 6 June 2022 Indonesia Investments released its latest monthly report. As usual, our report offers independent, objective, and in-depth analyses of key economic, political and social topics that were in the news in Indonesia over the past month.
The Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released Indonesia’s Q1-2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data on 9 May 2022. Based on its calculation the Indonesian economy expanded 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y), which is in fact better –albeit very modestly– than our projection that was set at 5.0 percent (y/y).
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As usual, we devote our first article to the Indonesian economy. But before we zoom in on the latest macroeconomic data of Indonesia, we first provide some context by discussing the global economy.
Before turning our attention to the economy of Indonesia, it is important to take a closer look at the global economy first. Fortunately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released a new update (called the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2022) and so it’s certainly worthwhile to take a look at its conclusions.
In the second half of September 2022 the Indonesian rupiah experienced some steep depreciating pressures, nearly touching IDR 15,300 per US dollar. It prompted Bank Indonesia to step and intervene in markets to limit the currency’s decline; a step that typically leads to a drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
What came as a surprise to us is that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) decided to raise its projection for Indonesia’s economic growth in full 2022 from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.2 percent (y/y) in July 2022. This decision was substantiated in its Asian Development Outlook 2022 Supplement entitled Recovery Faces Diverse Challenges.
Despite the ongoing challenges (that mainly originate from abroad), there is reason to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic growth in 2022 as the COVID-19 threat has eased.
On 7 February 2022, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the final quarter of 2021.
In the first month of 2022, we detected some positive signs, both abroad and at home (in Indonesia) as there is growing evidence that the Omicron variant is encouraging strong herd immunity around the world, while not making too many people ill to the extent that they require hospitalization.
There are reasons to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2021. Obviously, the underlying reason being that new confirmed COVID-19 infections have not been far from zero in Indonesia throughout the final quarter of the year. As a consequence, the government of Indonesia did not need to impose tough restrictions, hence economic activity is allowed to blossom.
The economic rebound in the second quarter of 2021 – with a +7.07 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace – was great for Indonesia, albeit it is obviously related to the ‘low base effect’ (as Indonesia had hit its rock bottom in the same quarter one year earlier). But what about the future, or more precisely: Q3-2021?
August is always a cause for celebrations in Indonesia as the country commemorates its independence from the colonial Dutch regime every 17 August. This year, it was the 76th year Indonesians celebrated their Independence Day. Obviously, Indonesia Investments sends the warmest wishes for the country's continued prosperity and success to all Indonesians!
