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11 May 2025 (closed)
Jakarta Composite Index (6,832.80) +5.05 +0.07%
Trade Balance of Indonesia: Analysis of the March 2025 Trade Statistics
In the present, it has become particularly interesting to take a look at trade flows as the US import tariffs (announced by President Donald Trump on 2 April 2025) could cause the restructuring, or reshaping, of international trade.
Here, we won’t get into these Trump tariffs (as we discussed this topic in great detail in another article in this April report), but we do point out that it will be interesting to see to what extent Indonesian trade is affected by the tariffs. It might require some time, though, before we can witness a significant impact because Trump still allowed around three months for further negotiations before (possibly) imposing retaliatory tariff, while a 10 percent baseline import tariff was already put in place (China being the exception as the trade war between the United States and China has significantly escalated already).
So, when looking at the latest export and import statistics of Indonesia, we have one big question in the back of our mind: despite this involving the March 2025 data, do we, perhaps, already see the first signs of a changing global trade environment?
But as usual, before zooming in on Indonesia, we take a quick look at global trade.
International Trade Update
The UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) mentioned in a new report that global economic growth is expected to slow to the rate of 2.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2025, falling below the 2.5 percent (y/y) threshold that is “typically associated with a global recessionary phase”. It is particularly weakening growth in the United States and the Euro area that is responsible for modest global economic growth. And, it also marks a sharp deceleration compared to the average annual growth rates of the pre-COVID-19-crisis period, which were already sluggish.
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