Indonesia Investments Report - March 2021 Edition: Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Update COVID-19 in Indonesia: 1,542,516 confirmed infections, 41,977 deaths (6 April 2021)
14 April 2021 (closed)
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Today's Headlines Trade Balance
Last month we were still a bit pessimistic about Indonesia’s trade performance, with bleak imports into Indonesia being the main reason (while the country’s impressive export performance is nice, but essentially the result of Indonesia’s over-dependence on raw commodity prices, which is actually a structural weakness of Southeast Asia’s largest economy).
Indonesia started the year with another comfortable trade surplus. In January 2021 the country posted a trade surplus of USD $1.96 billion. Since May 2020 Indonesia has been recording an impressive series of big trade surpluses, each month. This is a positive matter for the country’s current account balance and the rupiah rate (and thus also supports risk appetite in the capital markets).
Indonesia posted a USD $21.74 billion trade surplus in full-year 2020. This is a great recovery from the USD $3.59 billion trade deficit the country saw one year earlier.
Ever since the very start of the global COVID-19 crisis in early 2020, Indonesia has been recording a series of big trade surpluses each month. On the one hand, it is a welcome surprise as big monthly trade surpluses relieve pressures on Indonesia’s current account balance and rupiah exchange rate.
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), which were released on 16 November 2020, Indonesia recorded an impressive USD $3.61 billion trade surplus in October 2020. The surplus is at a level we had not seen since the final stages of the 2000s commodities boom (late-2011 to be exact).
Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus in May 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a trade surplus worth USD $2.09 billion in May 2020, one of the highest monthly surpluses in recent years. But is it reason to become excited?
After two months of trade surpluses in February and March 2020, Indonesia’s trade balance swung back to a deficit in the following month. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia experienced a USD $344.7 million trade deficit in April 2020.
The trade balance of Indonesia showed a relatively small deficit in the last month of 2019. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $28.2 million trade deficit was recorded in December 2019, much smaller than analysts had predicted.
Indonesia’s trade balance swung back into a surplus in October 2019. Statistics Indonesia (BPS), which released the country’s latest trade data on 15 November 2019, reported a USD $161 million trade surplus for Indonesia in October. It is an improvement from the USD $164 million trade deficit the country had experienced in the preceding month, and a huge improvement from the USD $1.76 billion trade deficit in the same month one year earlier (October 2018).
Indonesia’s trade balance swung back into a deficit in July 2019 as the country’s exports could not compensate for its imports. However, at USD $63 million, the monthly deficit is not too big (compared to the USD $2.3 billion and USD $1.1 billion deficits that were recorded in April and January, respectively).
Latest Columns Trade Balance
Indonesia recorded another big trade surplus in July 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country's trade surplus reached USD $3.26 billion in July 2020, a huge improvement from the USD $280.1 million deficit it recorded in the same month one year earlier.
For the second consecutive month Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus. According to the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a USD $1.27 billion trade surplus in June 2020.
In line with estimates, Indonesia’s trade balance showed another deficit in January 2020. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $864.2 million trade deficit was recorded in the first month of the year.
While many are relieved to see a trade surplus for Indonesia in August 2019, the picture does not look too positive when we delve a bit deeper in the data, and shows that global conditions are far from positive amid contracting international trade and subdued global economic growth (with ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China being a key issue).
Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), Indonesia recorded a USD $227.1 million trade surplus in September 2018. Although it is a very small surplus, it did lead to some optimism. After all, Indonesia had recorded big monthly trade deficits of USD $2.0 billion and USD $944.2 million in July 2018 and August 2018, respectively.
Based on the latest data of Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia’s trade deficit was recorded at USD $1.02 billion in August 2018. Although improving from the USD $2.03 billion trade deficit one month earlier (which constituted Indonesia’s biggest monthly trade deficit in five years), the deficit remains robust and therefore causes persistent concerns about the country’s current account deficit and the rupiah exchange rate.
The trade balance of Indonesia showed another deficit in February 2018, the nation's third consecutive monthly trade deficit. Based on data from Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS), the country's total exports reached USD $14.1 billion in February, up 10.1 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis, while total imports grew 25.2 percent (y/y) to USD $14.2 billion.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) said it expects to see another monthly trade deficit - approximately USD $230 million - in February 2018. If so, it would be the third straight monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy after a USD $220 million deficit in December 2017 and a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018 (the latter being the country's highest monthly deficit since April 2014).
In line with the increase in domestic economic activity, Indonesia's trade balance recorded a USD $678 million deficit in January 2018. The deficit was particularly attributed to a shrinking surplus of the country's non-oil & gas trade balance. Although Indonesia's oil & gas deficit declined in the first month of 2018, it was not enough to offset the impact of the shrinking non-oil & gas surplus. Hence the country posted its second consecutive monthly trade deficit.
In the last month of 2017 Indonesia posted a USD $270 million trade deficit according to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). This result goes against the prediction of most analysts, who expected to see another trade surplus for Southeast Asia's largest economy. Indonesia posted a trade surplus in all months of 2017 with the exception of July and December.
