Below is a list with tagged columns and company profiles.
Latest Reports Household Consumption
As if the external environment wasn’t already challenging enough, a new geopolitical crisis broke out when military organization Hamas attacked Israel in the morning of 7 October 2023 (from the Gaza Strip), killing over 1,400 Israelis while taking hostage more than 200 people.
Indonesia’s Statistical Office (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) shared some great news on 7 August 2023. The agency announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2023. This was better than most forecasts, including our projection of 4.9 percent (y/y).
In this article we take a look at the strength of the Indonesian economy by assessing a variety of macroeconomic indicators such as retail sales, consumer confidence, and credit growth.
In December 2022 the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its forecast for economic growth of Indonesia in full 2023 from 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 4.8 percent (y/y). In its Asian Development Outlook Supplement (the December 2022 edition), the institution noted that weak economic growth in developed countries will impact negatively on Indonesia’s export performance.
Despite the challenging international conditions (aggressive monetary tightening in the United States, the Russo-Ukrainian war, stagflation, a looming recession across the West, and weak growth in China) and a significant rise in the prices of subsidized fuels on 3 September 2022, Indonesia posted another solid economic growth rate.
In our July 2022 report we asked ourselves the question: ‘should we become more optimistic about Indonesia’s economic growth?’ since our outlook for the Indonesian economy in Q2-2022 fell out of tune with the general consensus held by a selection of international and domestic institutions. While our pessimistic stance served us well in 2020 and 2021 (when our projections also fell out of tune with the general consensus), this time it is our side that needs to revise its stance
At the start of June 2022, the World Bank decided to cut its forecast for Indonesia’s economic growth in full-year 2022 from the level of 5.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.1 percent (y/y). Do we need to be concerned?
The Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released Indonesia’s Q1-2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data on 9 May 2022. Based on its calculation the Indonesian economy expanded 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y), which is in fact better –albeit very modestly– than our projection that was set at 5.0 percent (y/y).
On Friday 5 November 2021 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS) released the official Q3-2021 gross domestic product (GDP) data for Indonesia. While we had predicted a mediocre performance (based on the country’s lackluster retail sales, consumer confidence, credit growth and low inflation in this year’s third quarter), the figure was still below our forecast.
On 05 August 2021 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, henceforth BPS) released the official gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2021.
Latest Columns Household Consumption
On 7 February 2022, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the final quarter of 2021.
The economic rebound in the second quarter of 2021 – with a +7.07 percent year-on-year (y/y) growth pace – was great for Indonesia, albeit it is obviously related to the ‘low base effect’ (as Indonesia had hit its rock bottom in the same quarter one year earlier). But what about the future, or more precisely: Q3-2021?
On 5 May 2020 Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), a non-departmental government agency, released the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia for the year 2020. These data were highly anticipated as policymakers, analysts, and stakeholders are particularly interested in finding out to what extent damage has been done to the Indonesian economy by the self-imposed restrictions.
In early May 2019 Indonesia’s statistics agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced that the nation’s economic growth pace was recorded at 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2019.
In early November 2018 the Central Statistics Bureau (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.17 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2018. Although it means a slowdown from the 5.27 percent (y/y) growth pace in the preceding quarter, the Q3-2018 GDP growth rate actually slightly exceeded our expectations.
Although overshadowed by the news of the devastating earthquake in Lombok, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the official Q2-2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure of Indonesia earlier today. The economy of Indonesia expanded 5.27 percent year-on-year (y/y) in the second quarter of 2018. This growth pace exceeds our expectations although it is not enough to necessitate a revision to our full-year 2018 GDP growth forecast of 5.2 percent (y/y).
There are signs that household consumption in Indonesia is rebounding ahead of this year's Idul Fitri holiday. This would be a great boost for Indonesia's overall economic growth as private consumption accounts for around 57 percent of the nation's total economic growth. One of the reasons why Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been stuck around the 5 percent (y/y) mark in recent years is subdued household consumption (which has fallen slightly below the 5 percent y/y mark).
In full-year 2017 the Indonesian economy expanded 5.07 percent year-on-year (y/y). Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced on Monday morning (05/02) that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 5.19 percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2017. These figures show a mixed picture.
Household consumption in Indonesia is expected to improve in 2018. This assumption is based on a number of indicators that show a positive trend. For example, consumer confidence in Indonesia rose to 126.4 points in December 2017. The country's macroeconomic picture is also strengthening with accelerating economic growth, low inflation and a stable (or actually appreciating) rupiah rate.
Within Indonesia it is still being debated whether consumers' purchasing power has really weakened in the third quarter. Some argue consumers are currently focused on saving their money rather than spending it (this explains rising third-party funds in Indonesia's banking system). Others argue that Indonesia's household consumption data are distorted because this year's Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations fell in the second quarter of the year (whereas in 2016 these celebrations fell in Q3).
