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21 April 2025 (closed)
Jakarta Composite Index (6,445.97) +7.70 +0.12%
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Most Asian stock markets are strengthening on Friday after indices on Wall Street rose yesterday on strong US economic growth. The US economy grew 3.7 percent (y/y) in the second quarter of 2015 (much higher than the 2.3 percent estimated previously). As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.27 percent while global oil prices rebounded over 10 percent on Thursday (27/08).
Darmin Nasution, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economics, told reporters on Thursday (27/08) that the government is set to announce a policy package aimed at supporting the rupiah. The package, set to become effective next week, involves deregulation and tax holidays. Further information is expected to be presented by Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro later today.
In line with major stock indices in Asia, Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index rebounded directly after the opening of trade on Thursday (27/08). The index surged 2.51 percent to 4,344.11 points. Most indices in Asia were up after the US Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed nearly 4 percent on Wednesday (26/08), effectively ending a six-day losing streak, on heightened expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise its key Fed Fund Rate yet in September. However, markets are still plagued by severe volatility.
There are few signs that Indonesian stocks and the rupiah will rebound on Tuesday (25/08). Benchmark stock indices of China and Japan continued to fall directly after opening on Tuesday and are therefore expected to drag down other markets in Asia. Yesterday, major markets in the USA and Europe slumped, while commodity prices hit new lows (oil slid below USD $40 per barrel for the first time since 2009). The rupiah continued to weaken after opening on Tuesday to IDR 14,065 per US dollar by 09:06 am local Jakarta time.
For the first time since July 1998, when Indonesia was still plagued by the Asian Financial Crisis, the rupiah has fallen beyond the IDR 14,000 per US dollar mark. Many analysts had already predicted over the past couple of months that Indonesia’s currency would weaken beyond this ‘psychological’ level as external pressures are simply too high. Since 2013 the rupiah has weakening (against the US dollar) as the US Federal Reserve started preparing for monetary tightening. The recent devaluation of China’s yuan added more pressure.
The global selloff hit Asian markets on Monday (24/08). Stock indices and currencies in the Asian region collapsed dramatically on Monday morning. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was down 4.66 percent to 4,133.33 points by 10:50 am local Jakarta time, while the rupiah had weakened beyond IDR 14,000 per US dollar according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index plunged over 8 percent. What is happening to the emerging market assets in Asia today?
Last week, Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) refrained from adjusting its relatively high interest rate regime as it is committed to support the ailing rupiah and combat high inflation. Another decision that was revealed by Bank Indonesia is the soon-to-be-introduced regulation that limits total (non-collateral) monthly US dollar purchases to USD $25,000 (down from USD $100,000 previously). This regulation will be implemented in a move to thwart speculators that want to take advantage of the weak and volatile rupiah.
The Indonesian rupiah continues to flirt with a 17-year low as the currency is getting closer and closer to the IDR 14,000 per US dollar level. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks took another blow as the country’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) fell 2.39 percent on Friday (21/08). Such turmoil is not only confined to Indonesia but was felt across Asia and the West. Markets were plagued by selloffs in energy shares (due to falling oil prices) and uncertainty about the timing of higher US interest rates.
Contrary to the expectation of most analysts, the US Federal Reserve will possibly refrain from raising its key interest rate in September. On Wednesday evening (19/08) the minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting (held in July) were released and they showed that most officials agreed that the US economy is heading for an interest rate hike but is not quite there yet as inflation remains lower than targeted while the current sluggish global economy poses risks and triggers high volatility.
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah continued to weaken on Wednesday (19/08) in line with most other Asian stocks and currencies. Investors are cautious ahead of the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC meeting, hence moving into safe haven assets. The minutes are to be released early Thursday morning local Indonesian time. Investors will be searching for signs informing about a possible Fed Fund Rate hike in September. If there are such signs, emerging market assets will be under heavy pressure tomorrow.
Latest Columns Rupiah
On Friday (03/01), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) ended 1.61 percent down to 4,257.66 points amid a majority of global indices declining after having experienced a short (window dressing-inspired) rally at the end of the year. The IHSG, which was not affected by the window dressing phenomenon, was dragged down after experiencing a four-day rally in the last week of 2013. Positive US employment data were unable to support global indices.
Garuda Indonesia, the country's top-class airline, is planning to conduct a rights issue in the first quarter of 2014. Through this corporate action, which has already been approved by the shareholders, the state-controlled company aims to raise IDR 2 trillion (USD $162.6 million). For 2014, the airline plans to allocate IDR 4 trillion in capital expenditure (capex) for business expansion. About half of this amount should originate from funds generated through the rights issue.
As we approach the end of 2013 it is worth taking a look back to the performance of the stock market of Indonesia this year. At the start of the year, investors and analysts were positive that the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) would post steady growth. Initial forecasts claimed that the IHSG could surpass the 5,000 points level by the end of 2013 from 4,300 at end-2012. The actual performance of the IHSG in fact exceeded expectations as in May 2013 the index moved beyond 5,200 points.
On Wednesday (18/12), the Federal Reserve announced to slightly scale back its quantitative easing program starting from January 2014. The reduction of the bond-buying program involves USD $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities and USD $5 billion of US treasury securities. Thus, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of USD $75 billion worth of bonds per month instead of the current pace of USD $85 billion. For the moment, this policy change has an euphoric effect on global stock markets.
The announcement that the Federal Reserve (FED) will start its quantitative easing tapering in January 2014, while keeping interest rates low, made stock indices in Asia rise, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), although mining and property stocks were able to limit today's gain. The IHSG rose 0.85 percent to 4,231.98 points on Thursday (19/12). The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate (IDR), however, was down as future tighter US dollar supplies causes market participants to buy US dollar now.
The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its downward trend on Wednesday (18/12). Both Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) and Bloomberg Dollar Index indicated a depreciating rupiah against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR was set at IDR 12,151 per US dollar, a 0.39 percent fall from yesterday (17/12), while in the Bloomberg Dollar Index the currency depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,168 per US dollar at 16:55 in the afternoon, local Jakarta time.
Wall Street, which was up on Monday (16/12) supported by various economic data, managed to support Asian stock indices on Tuesday (17/12), including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (IHSG). Investors were back and ready to trade on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. As usual, the big cap stocks were highly popular. The rupiah’s Bank Indonesia mid-rate, which improved slightly, also contributed to the good performance of the IHSG today. The index rose 1.37 percent to 4,182.35 points.
Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 17-18 December 2013, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate is continuing its depreciating trend as the economies of the USA and Japan, particularly the capital markets, are improving and causes the US dollar and Yen to appreciate against other currencies. Both currencies are considered safe havens amid the current volatile world economy. One of the victims is the rupiah, which fell to IDR 12,126 per US dollar at 12.30 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.
In Bank Indonesia's board of governors' meeting, which was held on Thursday (12/12), it was decided to maintain the country's benchmark interest rate (BI rate) at 7.50 percent. This decision was in line with market expectation but was unable to support the Jakarta Composite Index and rupiah exchange rate. The lending facility and deposit facility interest rates were also maintained at 7.50 percent and 5.75 percent respectively. Bank Indonesia decided not to change the rate as Indonesia's inflation outlook for 2014 is still within target.
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