According to the Bloomberg Dollar Index, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate fell 0.09 percent to IDR 11,976 per US dollar as per 13:46:18 local Jakarta time on Friday (06/12). It is expected that this slight depreciation of the rupiah will continue for the remainder of the trading day. The rupiah received some support from Moody's Investors Service, which stated that the rupiah depreciation itself is not a trigger for a rating downgrade. The ratings agency affirmed the country's Baa3 rating due to Indonesia's strong growth and low debt level.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its depreciation on Wednesday (04/12). The central bank's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate fell 1.09 percent to IDR 11,960 per US dollar after absorbing the impact of the currency's weak performance on yesterday's spot market. On Tuesday (03/12), local Indonesian companies were buying US dollars at a more attractive exchange rate after the currency had appreciated previously, thus placing serious downward pressure on the currency of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

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Although according to Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, the Indonesian IDR rupiah exchange rate appreciated 0.97 percent to IDR 11,830 per US dollar on Tuesday (03/12), the currency declined 0.98 percent to IDR 11,885 as of 02.01 ET according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. The difference between both rates is caused by the fact that Bank Indonesia's rate had not yet absorbed the positive reaction of market participants toward trade and inflation data that were released on Monday (02/12).

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate extended its losing streak on Thursday (28/11). Bank Indonesia's mid rate plunged 0.99 percent to IDR 11,930 per US dollar, thus moving closer toward the psychological level of 12,000. Various local banks have already set the value of the currency above the 12,000 level on the spot market. It is the weakest level of the rupiah since 2009. Since Monday (25/11), the mid rate has depreciated 1.77 percent. This year so far, the currency has fallen 23.37 percent, thus becoming the worst performing Asian currency.

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The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate maintained its downward trend on Wednesday (27/11). Bank Indonesia's mid rate depreciated 0.41 percent to IDR 11,813 per US dollar. Investors remain concerned about Indonesia's wide current account deficit. Today, Finance Minister Chatib Basri said that the current account deficit will be around USD $30 billion by the end of 2013, significantly up from USD $24 billion at the end of 2012. In the third quarter of 2013, the current account deficit was USD $8.4 billion (3.8 percent of Indonesia's GDP).

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On Tuesday (26/11), Bank Indonesia's mid rate depreciated 0.37 percent to IDR 11,765 per US dollar, which is the lowest level the currency has touched since March 2009. Main reason for today's decline is the government's US dollar-denominated bond auction yesterday (25/11) that fell USD $450 million short of its target. The bond issuance was negatively impacted by investors' concern about the looming scaling back of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program as US economic data improve.

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The Indonesian rupiah continued its downward spiral on Monday morning (25/11). The central bank's mid rate fell 0.14 percent to IDR 11,722 per US dollar. Last week, the rupiah fell amid negative market sentiments brought on by the result of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. The result seems to indicate that it will not take long before the quantitative easing program will be wound down. Contrary to the Australian dollar as well as the Indian rupee, news about the forthcoming financial reformation in China is unable to the support the rupiah.

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Several analysts expect that the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) will raise its key interest rate (BI rate) again in the first Semester of 2014 in order to anticipate the winding down of the Federal Reserve's monthly USD $85 billion stimulus program (quantitative easing). Currently, the BI rate is set at 7.50 percent but analysts say that the market should be prepared for a hike to 8.0 percent in the first half of 2014. Between June and November 2013, Bank Indonesia has already raised its benchmark interest rate from 5.75 to 7.50 percent.

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After experiencing slowing growth in recent months, Indonesian cement sales in October 2013 increased 7.9 percent (year-on-year) to 5.58 million metric tons according to data from the Indonesia Cement Association (ASI). As such, cement sales rebounded from the 5.3 percent growth (yoy) in the previous month. The October growth rate was mainly caused by increased cement demand from islands other than Java. In particular, demand from Sumatra rose significantly. Indonesia's second most populous island bought 1.15 million tons of cement.

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Fitch Ratings, one of the three major global rating agencies, affirmed Indonesia's sovereign credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook. In a press release, the rating agency mentioned four key factors that led to the affirmation of the sovereign rating. These are: good policy management by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) and government amid external pressures, relatively high economic growth, prudent fiscal management (resulting in low public debt), and a strong banking sector (confirmed by multiple stress tests).

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Again positive news for Indonesia's trade balance. Last week, Statistics Indonesia announced that the largest economy of Southeast Asia posted a USD $776.8 million trade surplus in November 2013 (the largest monthly trade surplus since March 2012). After the (revised) USD $24 million trade surplus in October 2013, November was the second straight month in which the country posted a surplus. This development is important to gain investors' confidence as Indonesia's current account deficit has been a major cause for concern.

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On Friday (03/01), the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) ended 1.61 percent down to 4,257.66 points amid a majority of global indices declining after having experienced a short (window dressing-inspired) rally at the end of the year. The IHSG, which was not affected by the window dressing phenomenon, was dragged down after experiencing a four-day rally in the last week of 2013. Positive US employment data were unable to support global indices.

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Garuda Indonesia, the country's top-class airline, is planning to conduct a rights issue in the first quarter of 2014. Through this corporate action, which has already been approved by the shareholders, the state-controlled company aims to raise IDR 2 trillion (USD $162.6 million). For 2014, the airline plans to allocate IDR 4 trillion in capital expenditure (capex) for business expansion. About half of this amount should originate from funds generated through the rights issue.

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As we approach the end of 2013 it is worth taking a look back to the performance of the stock market of Indonesia this year. At the start of the year, investors and analysts were positive that the country's benchmark stock index (known as the IHSG or Jakarta Composite Index) would post steady growth. Initial forecasts claimed that the IHSG could surpass the 5,000 points level by the end of 2013 from 4,300 at end-2012. The actual performance of the IHSG in fact exceeded expectations as in May 2013 the index moved beyond 5,200 points.

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On Wednesday (18/12), the Federal Reserve announced to slightly scale back its quantitative easing program starting from January 2014. The reduction of the bond-buying program involves USD $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities and USD $5 billion of US treasury securities. Thus, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of USD $75 billion worth of bonds per month instead of the current pace of USD $85 billion. For the moment, this policy change has an euphoric effect on global stock markets.

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The announcement that the Federal Reserve (FED) will start its quantitative easing tapering in January 2014, while keeping interest rates low, made stock indices in Asia rise, including Indonesia's benchmark stock index (IHSG), although mining and property stocks were able to limit today's gain. The IHSG rose 0.85 percent to 4,231.98 points on Thursday (19/12). The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate (IDR), however, was down as future tighter US dollar supplies causes market participants to buy US dollar now.

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The Indonesia rupiah exchange rate continued its downward trend on Wednesday (18/12). Both Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) and Bloomberg Dollar Index indicated a depreciating rupiah against the US dollar. Bank Indonesia's JISDOR was set at IDR 12,151 per US dollar, a 0.39 percent fall from yesterday (17/12), while in the Bloomberg Dollar Index the currency depreciated 0.35 percent to IDR 12,168 per US dollar at 16:55 in the afternoon, local Jakarta time.

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Wall Street, which was up on Monday (16/12) supported by various economic data, managed to support Asian stock indices on Tuesday (17/12), including Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (IHSG). Investors were back and ready to trade on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. As usual, the big cap stocks were highly popular. The rupiah’s Bank Indonesia mid-rate, which improved slightly, also contributed to the good performance of the IHSG today. The index rose 1.37 percent to 4,182.35 points.

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Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 17-18 December 2013, the Indonesia rupiah exchange rate is continuing its depreciating trend as the economies of the USA and Japan, particularly the capital markets, are improving and causes the US dollar and Yen to appreciate against other currencies. Both currencies are considered safe havens amid the current volatile world economy. One of the victims is the rupiah, which fell to IDR 12,126 per US dollar at 12.30 local Jakarta time (Bloomberg Dollar Index).

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) estimates that Indonesia's current account deficit will ease to 3.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2013. Indonesia's wide current account deficit has been one of the major financial troubles this year and managed to weaken investors' confidence in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Thus, Indonesia became one of the hardest hit emerging countries after the Federal Reserve started to speculate about an ending to its quantitative easing program.

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