In order to increase government revenues, the Indonesian government announced that, starting from 2014, coal miners that have a Mining Business License (Izin Usaha Pertambangan/IUP) will have to pay a higher royalty fee to the central government. The decision was made during a meeting between the government and Commission XI of the House of Representatives (DPR) this week. The new royalty policy, which was originally planned to be introduced this year, is expected to result in an increase of IDR 4 trillion (USD $408.2 million) in state revenues.

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Indonesia's coal production is projected to increase 4.4 percent to 400 million tons this year, up from the government's initial forecast of 390 million tons. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia, APBI), this growth will be spurred by increased demand from Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan in June. The coal price is expected to increase accordingly in the middle of the year.

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Declining profit in Indonesia's coal industry was also confirmed by Adaro Energy's (ADRO) net profit of 2012. The coal mining company reported net profit of US $385.34 million, a 30 percent fall compared to 2011 when it amounted US $550.35 million. Earnings per share also declined from US $0,01721 in 2011 to US $0,01205 in 2012. Lower sales volume and lower global coal prices were cited as the major factors behind the decline.

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The Bakrie Group is most likely to continue its separation from Bumi Plc, the London-listed coal miner, after an extraordinary shareholders' meeting yesterday rejected the proposal of British financier Nathaniel Rothschild to replace 12 of the 14 board members. This outcome means that the Bakrie Group can go ahead with its intention to separate from Bumi Plc as agreed by the board last week and will keep its assets in Bumi Resources, Indonesia's largest coal miner.

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Yesterday, Trans Power Marine made a solid debut on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). The Indonesian shipping company listed 15 percent of its shares in the initial public offering (IPO) for the price of IDR 230 per share. At the end of the trading day, its shares had surged by 50 percent to IDR 345 (US $0.04). In total, the company gained IDR 90.85 billion (US $9.4 million) through the IPO. These funds will be used to buy new vessels.

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Indonesia's November 2016 coal price broke a record. The nation's benchmark thermal coal price (locally known as the Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA) - a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and which is based on domestic and international coal indices - jumped 22.9 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $84.89 per metric ton this month, the highest monthly HBA price rise ever recorded. Compared to the start of the year, Indonesia's coal price has now risen 59.6 percent, the sixth straight monthly gain. But is this reason for euphoria?

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Many Indonesian coal miners that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) have seen their shares surge in the past couple of months supported by the recovering coal prices. Indonesia's thermal coal price (in Indonesian: Harga Batubara Acuan, abbreviated HBA), a monthly price set by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry and which is based on domestic and global coal prices, soared from USD $50.92 per metric ton in February 2016 to USD $63.93 per ton in September.

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Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will soon issue a moratorium on new coal mining concessions. This moratorium will be implemented after the issuance of a planned presidential instruction regarding a five-year moratorium on new palm oil plantation concessions. Heriyanto, Head of the Legal Department Directorate General of Minerals and Coal at the Energy Ministry, emphasized that the moratorium in Indonesia's mining industry only involves coal, not the mining of minerals.

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Domestic coal consumption in Indonesia rose 34.5 percent (y/y) to 24.5 million tons in the January-April 2016 period, according to data from Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry. This growth is caused by higher domestic coal demand due to Indonesia's ambitious 35,000 MW program (many of the power plants constructed in this program are coal-fired). Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal exports were down 14 percent (y/y) to 68 million metric tons over the same period amid sluggish global demand.

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Last week it was announced that the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) agreed to a USD $3.4 billion loan for the construction of the controversial Batang power plant in Central Java. This power plant project is controversial as it met fierce resistance from the local community (triggering concerns about human rights violations related to the land acquisition process) as well as criticism from environmental groups, saying this power plant - set to become Indonesia's largest coal-fired power plant - runs counter to Indonesia's earlier commitment to reduce carbon emissions.

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Adaro Energy, one of Indonesia's leading coal mining companies, is still plagued by the globe's weak coal prices. However, the company's estimated lower cash and operational costs give a positive boost to the miner's corporate earnings this year. According to Danareksa Sekuritas' estimates the cost of mining for Adaro Energy (outside royalty payments) will range between USD $26 - $28 per ton in 2016, slightly down from USD $28 per ton last year. Meanwhile, the miner's stripping ratio is expected to decline to 4.7x in 2016 (from 5.2x last year).

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One of the leading diversified conglomerates in Indonesia, Astra International, is facing challenges. Demand for cars has been on the decline in Indonesia over the past two years. This is a big challenge for the company because the automotive sector accounts for about half of Astra's total earnings. Meanwhile, its heavy equipment & mining segment and the financial services segment have been under severe pressure. Net income in the heavy equipment & mining segment plunged 55 percent (y/y) in Q1-2016, while net income in the financial services segment tumbled 46 percent (y/y) over the same period.

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State-controlled coal mining company Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam may be the only Indonesian coal producer that will post higher sales in 2016, both in terms of volume and revenue. The nation's other coal miners are expected to see further dropping coal sales due to sluggish global demand although coal prices may stabilize this year. According to Trimegah Securities Bukit Asam's coal sales volume will rise 25 percent (y/y) to 23.9 million tons in 2016, while revenue is estimated to rise 9 percent (y/y) to IDR 15 trillion (approx. USD $1.1 billion), and coal mining operational costs to fall by 3 percent (y/y) to USD $39.8 per ton.

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United Tractors, the largest distributor of heavy equipment in Indonesia, is still facing challenges due to persistently weak demand for heavy equipment amid low commodity prices. Business activity in the agribusiness, mining and infrastructure sectors have slowed This context is expected to lead to slowing net profit for the company in both 2015 and 2016. The company, a subsidiary of Astra International (Indonesia's largest diversified conglomerate), controls a market share of around 40 percent in Indonesia's heavy equipment market.

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Coal production in Indonesia fell 15.4 percent to 263 million tons in the first eight months of 2015 (from 311 million tons in the same period last year) as Indonesian coal miners cut production due to low global coal demand. Last week it was reported that Indonesia’s reference thermal coal price hit another all-time low at USD $58.21 per metric ton (FOB), down 1.6 percent from the August reference rate, and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s coal exports fell 18 percent to 211 million tons (y/y) in the January-August period.

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