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In January 2022 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced it, again, revised its outlook for Indonesia’s economic growth. The Washington-based institution cut its forecast for growth in 2022 from 5.9 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5.6 percent (y/y).
On Thursday (06.01.2022) Indonesia Investments released the December 2021 edition of its monthly report. This report discusses a range of subjects - related to political developments, the economy and social matters - that were important and influential issues in Indonesia in the month of December 2021.
On Monday (06.12.2021) Indonesia Investments released the November 2021 edition of its monthly report. This report discusses a range of subjects - related to political developments, the economy and social matters - that were important and influential issues in Indonesia in the month of November 2021.
On Friday 5 November 2021 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS) released the official Q3-2021 gross domestic product (GDP) data for Indonesia. While we had predicted a mediocre performance (based on the country’s lackluster retail sales, consumer confidence, credit growth and low inflation in this year’s third quarter), the figure was still below our forecast.
On Monday (8.11.2021) Indonesia Investments released its October 2021 report. This report discusses a range of subjects - related to political developments, the economy and social matters - that were influential in Indonesia in the month of October 2021.
Although in some respects Indonesia has exited the COVID-19 crisis (for example, the economic recession ended in Q2-2021, and the number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths eased significantly), the road ahead is uncertain and full of challenges.
On Thursday (7.10.2021) Indonesia Investments released its September 2021 report. This report discusses a range of subjects - related to political developments, the economy and social matters - that were influential in Indonesia in the month of September 2021.
On Tuesday (7.09.2021) Indonesia Investments released its August 2021 report. This report discusses a range of subjects - related to political developments, the economy and social matters - that occurred in Indonesia in the month of August 2021.
On 05 August 2021 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, henceforth BPS) released the official gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2021.
On Thursday (05.08.2021) Indonesia Investments released its July 2021 report. This 182-page report discusses a range of subjects - related to political developments, the economy and social matters that occurred in Indonesia in the month of July 2021.
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Right at the very start of July 2021, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced ‘emergency measures’ (in Indonesian called Pemberlakukan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat Darurat, or PPKM Darurat, which roughly translates to the Enforcement of Restrictions on Activities in Society) in a renewed effort to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia.
For Indonesia, the month of April 2021 was particularly dominated by the arrival of Ramadan, the holy fasting month for the Muslim community. From the evening of 12 April 2021 Muslims fast (typically from sunrise to sunset) up to 12 May 2021. It is also known as a period of intensified praying and reading the Qur’an for the Muslim community as well as higher focus on generosity.
We detected a very positive development over the past two months. The number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Indonesia continued to decline heavily, a trend that began at the very start of February 2021. While on 1 February 2021, a total of 10,994 new COVID-19 infections were found, this number has almost halved as we enter April 2021 (see the chart below).
The other day, I had a conversation with my neighbors – a married couple who run a bakery and café in the city center of Yogyakarta. From previous conversations I knew that their business is heavily affected by the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Even up to the point that they had to find a cheaper school for their oldest daughter.
It was a rough first month of the year for Indonesia. Obviously, the COVID-19 crisis persists (and there are signs to assume this crisis will persist throughout 2021) with the total number of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Indonesia now having passed the one million mark.
It came as a big surprise to us when the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) announced on 19 November 2020 (the day it concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting) that it decided to cut its benchmark interest rate (the seven-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. Bank Indonesia also cut its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent and 4.50 percent, respectively.
Across the world, concern over the COVID-19 pandemic grew in September 2020 as the number of new COVID-19 cases continued to rise rapidly. Worldwide, at the end of September 2020, some 34 million people have been infected with the virus, while more than one million people have died after contracting the virus.
On 05 August 2020, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter of 2020. These data, which were highly anticipated among analysts and policymakers, are crucial to comprehend how – and to what extend – the self-imposed social and business restrictions (made in response to the COVID-19 pandemic) have impacted on the Indonesian economy.
Good news at the start of July 2020. The World Bank upgraded Indonesia’s economic status to an ‘upper-middle income country’ (from ‘lower-middle income country’) per 1 July 2020. The key consideration for the World Bank was that Indonesia’s gross national income (GNI) per capita increased from USD $3,840 in 2018 to USD $4,050 in 2019. This means that an upgrade was needed (see the table below).
It is becoming clearer by the day that economic growth in Indonesia, in 2020, will be derailed enormously. Analysts and authoritative institutions (both international and domestic ones) have, again, cut their forecasts for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q2-2020 (decisions that obviously also have consequences for Indonesia’s full-year 2020 economic growth outlooks).
