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Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) approved the government's proposed 2018 state budget bill in a plenary session on Wednesday (25/10), hence turning the bill into law. Taufik Kurniawan, Deputy House Speaker, announced this decision earlier today.
On Monday (16/10), Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, will see the inauguration of the new governor, Anies Baswedan (together with his deputy Sandiaga Uno), for the 2017-2022 period. President Joko Widodo will lead the ceremony at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta. The ceremony, which starts around 16:00 pm local Jakarta time, will be guarded by 7,000 security personnel.
Business and politics are highly related to each other and therefore it is worthwhile to take a look at chief executive officers' (CEOs) confidence in Indonesia's national politics as well as their expectations for Indonesia's future political conditions. Local media company Kontan recently issued its latest Kontan CEO Confidence Index (KCCI).
Yesterday's Jakarta gubernatorial election seems to have little impact on the performance of Indonesian stocks and the rupiah today (20/04). While Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is cautiously higher (in line with the general trend of Asian stocks this morning), the Indonesian rupiah had depreciated 0.10 percent to IDR 13,332 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index) by 10:00 am local Jakarta time on Thursday (20/04). The rupiah performance is slightly out of tune with most other Asian currencies but its weakening is still rather insignificant.
After 07:00 am Western Indonesian time zone on Wednesday (19/04), the citizens of Jakarta started to vote for their new governor. It was the second (and final) round of the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election. In this round the two leaders of the first round (where no candidate managed to obtain the absolute majority of votes) had a face-off. Below, Indonesia Investments provided a short live blog covering the key developments as well as updates of the various quick count results that came in after 14:00 pm local Jakarta time.
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) decided to keep its doors closed on Wednesday (19/04) as the people of Jakarta will vote in the second (and final) round of the Jakarta gubernatorial election. Earlier, Indonesian President Joko Widodo had already declared Wednesday 19 April 2017 a public holiday for the citizens in Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia stated that it will keep operations at a minimum on voting day.
A new rally, organized by the Indonesian Muslim Forum (FUI), will be staged on Tuesday (21/02) in front of Jakarta's national legislative complex on Jalan Gatot Subroto in Senayan (South Jakarta). An estimated 10,000 protesters will urge authorities (in this so-called "212 rally") to suspend Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok). Ahok is currently on trial for blasphemy based on a manipulated video that surfaced on social media last year.
Although all quick count results show that the Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama - Djarot Saiful Hidayat pair won the first round of Jakarta's 2017 gubernatorial election, the Anies Baswedan - Sandiaga Uno pair may feel like the moral winner of this election as there is only a small margin (less than four percent) between both pairs. The winner of the second round, ergo winner of the election, will thus be determined by those who voted on the Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono - Sylviana Murni pair in the first round (this pair cannot participate in the second round).
Starting from 7:00 am local Jakarta time on Wednesday (15/02), the capital city of Indonesia is voting for their next governor. There are more than 13,000 polling places spread across Jakarta to accommodate the 7.1 million eligible voters. Although actually in more than 100 provinces, cities and districts the regional heads are being elected today, most attention goes to Jakarta where ethnic and religious tensions are high due to the participation of incumbent Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (better known as Ahok), a Christian, ethnic Chinese politician who is being prosecuted for blasphemy.
Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry targets to replace the cost recovery scheme in the oil and gas industry in January 2017. Instead, the government would use contracts with a gross profit sharing mechanism. The new scheme would simplify procedures (making the investment climate more attractive) while Indonesia "continues to prioritize the interests of the nation and optimize the use of local resources and labor", Deputy Energy Minister Arcandra Tahar said. The proposed changes will not affect existing contracts between contractors and the Indonesian government.
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Consumer goods companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange are expected to experience two good years in 2018 and 2019 due to the presence of the "political years" (regional elections in 2018 followed by legislative and presidential elections in 2019). Traditionally, consumption rises amid these "parties of democracy" and therefore those consumer goods companies with strong brands are expected to see rising sales in this period.
It was a solid year for the Indonesian economy. The macroeconomic fundamentals of the nation have strengthened due to the hard work of the Indonesian government under the leadership of President Joko Widodo. However, there is no room for complacency as there remain major bottlenecks, while legislative and presidential elections - in which voters can approve or disapprove Widodo's performance - are scheduled for 2019.
Investors will need to keep an eye on Indonesia's political years of 2018 (regional elections) and 2019 (legislative elections) as the outcomes can have a big impact on the investment climate and business climate of Indonesia. Most eyes will be on the legislative and presidential elections of 2019.
Rising commodity prices are good for the Indonesian economy because the country is one of the world's biggest commodity exporters. However, rising commodity prices will also make it more difficult for the government to keep inflation within its target range of 2.5 - 4.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) in 2018.
Across the world, leaders express criticism on US President Donald Trump's decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital city of Israel. Moreover, Trump announced that the American embassy is to be relocated from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. While Trump claims that these decisions constitute a step to advance the peace process and emphasizes that the US will continue to facilitate the peace process between both sides, fierce criticism unleashed following Trump's statements.
The Indonesian government is still studying the possibility of building a new capital city in Indonesia, thus replacing Jakarta that has become overcrowded with approximately 10 million official residents (the real figure may be much higher as many unregistered Indonesians live in the capital). Moreover, every morning there is a huge inflow of people (originating from the satellite cities around Jakarta) who are heading to their office or place of work. This causes great pressure on the city's fragile infrastructure.
To us it came as a surprise to learn this morning that former Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (better known as Ahok) decided not to appeal against his controversial blasphemy conviction earlier this month when the Jakarta Court found him guilty of insulting Islam and therefore sentenced him to two years in prison, a case that is regarded a setback for Indonesian pluralism and religious tolerance.
Around the globe media reported about the controversial decision of the Jakarta Court to hand a two-year prison sentence to former Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (better known as Ahok), a much tougher sentence than had been demanded by prosecutors. Ahok, a Christian from Chinese descent, was imprisoned on grounds of blasphemy. However, most analysts assume Ahok is victim of a flawed and corrupt political and judicial system.
After having carefully followed the 2017 gubernatorial election in Indonesia's capital city of Jakarta, there are a couple of worrying signs. One, the rising influence of hardline Islam on Indonesian politics (and prosecution). Two, the rising influence of a handful of Indonesian "billionaire" businessmen, led by controversial Prabowo Subianto, who seek the highest political power within Southeast Asia's largest economy. Three, the cooperation between the two aforementioned forces as they each strive to fulfill their (separate) ambitions.
Jakarta's gubernatorial election is important for two reasons: (1) it is an important test case to determine the current state of religious and ethnic tolerance (pluralism) within Indonesia, and (2) it forms a prelude to Indonesia's 2019 presidential and parliamentary elections. Today, the second round of the Jakarta gubernatorial election is held, a tight race between incumbent Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) and former education minister Anies Baswedan.
