Asian markets were the first to react to American-led strikes on Syria carried out on late Friday evening (13/04). The strikes were an answer to a chemical attack in Douma on April 7, allegedly conducted by the Syrian government under the leadership of President Bashar Assad. The US strike on Syria - supported by France and the United Kingdom - caused US-Russian relations to hit a new low. However, the strike did not lead to direct military confrontations between the USA and Russia and therefore markets are somewhat relieved on Monday.

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Many Asian stocks are in deep red territory dragged down by a 3.49 percent decline of Japan's Nikkei 225 index in the morning of Friday (23/03). The Nikkei 225 is responding to plunging stocks on Wall Street overnight where the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 2.9 percent, while both the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.5 percent, each. All three benchmark US indexes suffered their biggest drops since 8 February 2018.

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Amid mixed markets in Asia, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.95 percent to 6,321.90 points on Thursday (15/03). Asian markets were plagued by the same negative market sentiments that caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to suffer their third consecutive daily decline overnight. Investors continue to be alarmed by trade policy changes initiated by the USA and possibly responded by other nations.

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With Donald Trump in office there exists huge volatility in terms of politics, foreign diplomatic relations, and trade-related policies. One day the US is on the brink of a "fire and fury" war with North Korea, then the next day Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agree to meet for talks. One day the US shocks the world by announcing steep steel and aluminum import tariffs, the next day trading partners are invited to negotiate lower tariffs. One day Rex Tillerson is US Secretary of State, the next he is fired by Trump through Twitter.

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On Thursday evening (08/03) Washington time, South Korea's national security adviser Chung Eui-yong announced - at the White House - that North Korea's belligerent leader Kim Jong Un invited US President Donald Trump for talks. Trump accepted the invitation and both parties are expected to meet by May 2018. It would be an unprecedented move as a sitting US president has never met a North Korean leader.

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Most Asian stocks are in the red zone on Wednesday (07/03) after it was reported that Gary Cohn is to resign as adviser to US President Donald Trump. Cohn, who is well-regarded in the business community and markets, opposes Trump's looming protectionist import tariffs (a 25 percent import tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum). Seeing Cohn lose the battle in the White House, markets have become more concerned about the possible outbreak of a global trade war.

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The Indonesian rupiah has been under heavy pressure over the past month amid US dollar strength ahead of the March Federal Reserve policy meeting where market participants expect to see another interest rate hike. The rupiah weakened 2.92 percent from IDR 13,402 per US dollar on 1 February 2018 to IDR 13,793 on 1 March 2018. Not only the rupiah but basically currencies have been sliding against the US dollar that touched a six-week high earlier in the week.

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Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Lestari Priansari Marsudi said the Indonesian government imposed zero tariffs for certain Palestinian products entering Indonesia since the start of the year. This policy aims at supporting Palestine economically.

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As we are in the middle of the fourth quarter of 2017, we detect rising pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate amid broad US dollar strength. However, the decision of Indonesia's central bank to leave its interest rate regime unchanged at the November meeting managed to give some support to the rupiah (as well as Indonesia's improving balance of payments, current account deficit, and capital and financial account).

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After three straight sessions of decline, Indonesian stocks are again rebounding toward record high territory. In the first trading session on Tuesday (31/10) the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index climbed 0.57 percent to 6,008.14 points, just short of the all-time record high of 6,025.43 points that was touched last week. The consumer goods index, particularly, is supporting the rise of the overall index.

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The economic growth rate of Indonesia in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1-2025) came in slightly below our projection of 4.9 – 5.0 percent year-on-year (y/y). But, indeed, we had already detected a (general) weakening in internal and external conditions, which was reflected in the macroeconomic data of Indonesia that we discussed in our April 2025 report. And so, it was certainly not a shock.

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There is a major difference between US President Donald Trump’s first term in office (in 2017-2021) and his second term in office (that started in January 2025). And, it is a difference that is felt (quite heavily) across the globe.

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US President Donald Trump's recent tariffs have affected markets beyond the Americas. The ripple effects of the US tariffs have brought fresh trading opportunities and new challenges to mixed economies like Indonesia and the Southeast Asian market. As Southeast Asia's largest economy, Indonesia is at the forefront of foreign policies that impact international trade.

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This month, our report is completed at a time when Indonesian society is celebrating Idul Fitri, the festivities that mark the end of the holy Ramadan month (the fasting month for Muslims). In fact, the holiday period started on 21 March 2025 for school-children, while society as a whole has an official national holiday from 28 March to 7 April 2025.

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The reason why we frequently discuss Indonesia’s financial markets (especially the stock and money markets) in our monthly reports is because these markets reflect the degree of confidence there exists among domestic and foreign investors (which involves individuals as well as the big corporations) in global political and economic conditions and in the economic and fiscal fundamentals of Indonesia.

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When Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made his first speech as president on 20 October 2024, he stated that Indonesia seeks a “free and active non-aligned path. We don’t want to join any military pacts, [instead] we choose a friendly path with all countries.”

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In terms of politics, the most interesting developments in June 2024 probably came from abroad. Firstly, on 28 June 2024, US President Joe Biden (aged 81) and former President Donald Trump (aged 78) squared off for the first presidential debate of the US election season. It’s worth taking a quick look at this debate as it will influence who will become leader of the world’s biggest political and economic force.

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An alarming report was released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 1 October 2019. In the report the WTO notes that ongoing global trade tensions, led by tariff troubles between the United States and China, are doing harm to global economic growth in ways not seen since the financial crisis one decade ago.

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The global environment has not improved in August 2019. In fact, it has deteriorated as reflected by declining stock indices in most parts of the world as well as a record-setting trend for the price of gold (known for being one of the world’s crucial safe haven assets).

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U.S. stock markets continue to hover near record levels as trade policy conversations between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping define the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading just shy of 26,000, which is a psychological level that is often closely-watched by the financial markets.

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