Indonesia's palm oil exports (palm oil and palm kernel) rose by 9.1 percent (month-on-month) to 2.04 million metric tons in February, according to data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki). This level - the highest in about five years - was brought on due to increased purchases from China and Pakistan. Indonesia's palm oil industry may experience a better year in 2013 as exports in the first two months of 2013 rose 29 percent from last year.

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Palm oil ranks among the most important agricultural commodities of Indonesia as this country is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil. This implies that Indonesia generates important foreign exchange earnings from palm oil exports and is a source of income for millions of workers on the plantations.

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Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.

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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

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The Indonesian government is eager to boost domestic crude palm oil (CPO) production, but not at the expense of tropical forest (by adding new oil palm plantations). Instead, a new government program aims to replant 20,000 hectares of smallholder palm oil plantations in 2017 under the condition that farmers meet the requirements that are stipulated by Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) certification.

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The higher crude palm oil (CPO) price will have a positive impact on the corporate earnings of Indonesian CPO producers, including Sampoerna Agro. Benchmark palm oil futures for March 2017 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were at 3,161 ringgit (approx. USD $706) per ton at the end of last week, near a four and a half year high. However, not all analysts advise investors to purchase shares of Sampoerna Agro, a company that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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Indonesia's Industry Ministry selected the industrial estate in Berau (East Kalimantan) as the center for the downstream palm oil industry in Kalimantan. Furthermore, Panggah Susanto, the Industry Ministry's Director General for Agriculture industry, said the government proposes to select Berau as one of the palm oil centers within the Palm Oil Green Economic Zone (POGEZ) scheme. Berau is chosen to replace Bontang because the former has 3,400 hectares of (clear and clean) industrial land available, while land in Bontang still falls under "protected forest" status.

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Expectation of rising fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and crude palm oil (CPO) volumes in the second half of the year should boost the corporate earnings of Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading agribusiness companies. Meanwhile, sentiments related to the La Nina weather phenomenon and rising CPO demand on the back of the Indonesian government's biodiesel program should support CPO prices. Astra Agro Lestari is the plantation unit of diversified conglomerate Astra International.

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Indonesian President Joko Widodo has ordered the nation's Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya to issue a moratorium on new palm oil concessions in a number of provinces. Although Widodo wants Indonesia - the world's top producer and exporter of crude palm oil (CPO) - to raise CPO output, he believes this increase can be achieved by increasing productivity of existing palm oil plantations, not by adding new plantations. Indonesia is often criticized by environmentalist groups for its forestry policies and poor law enforcement (which led to the severe haze that spread through Southeast Asia last year).

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Crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon (that brought a prolonged dry season to Southeast Asia). CPO production in Malaysia could fall between 1.5 and 2 million tons this year according to Dorab Mistry, Director at Godrej International. Declining output in the world's two leading palm oil producers and exporters implies that palm oil prices should be able to rise further. At the start of this week palm oil futures traded in Kuala Lumpur (June delivery) rose to 2,779 ringgit (approx. USD $695) per ton, the highest level since March 2014.

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Agribusiness company Astra Agro Lestari, one of Indonesia's leading crude palm oil (CPO) producers, is expected to show a better performance in 2016 on an expected rise in palm oil prices. Although palm oil futures currently feel the negative effects of tumbling global crude oil prices, these futures are estimated to have risen to about 2,700 ringgit per ton by May 2016 from around 2,385 (approx. USD $540)  per ton currently.

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